1 Euromoney Country Risk · 2018. 7. 23. · Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to...

Euromoney Country RiskQ2 2018 RESULTS

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction (Scoring)2. Q/Q update3. Y/Y update4. Contacts

2

SCORING

Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and aggregate the views of country risk experts. It comprises real-time country risk scores for over 180 markets in 15 categories that relate to economic, structural and political riskThere are over 400 experts (primarily economists) who are surveyed quarterlyHistorical data sets are available:Annual data back to 1993 and quarterly data back to 2011

Our subscriber base is primarily corporate treasurers, but also includes SWFs, asset managers, banks (FX, Risk, Sovereign debt issuance)

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Region Score Rank

Up Down Up Down

Africa 8 8 9 5

Americas 11 8 5 3

Asia 16 5 7 2

Australasia 1 3 1 1

Caribbean 5 2 3 3

Central & Eastern Europe 13 8 2 4

Middle East 3 5 0 3

Western Europe 10 5 2 0

Total 67 44 29 21

4

GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1 - Q2 2018

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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS –TOP/BOTTOM 5

Country 2018 Q2 Score Q/Q Change

Top 5

Luxembourg 85.45 0.73

Cyprus 59.72 0.27

Dem. Republic of Congo 31.82 0.26

Vietnam 41.76 0.21

Columbia 57.71 0.21

Bottom 5

Malaysia 59.04 -0.14

Maldives 22.75 -0.23

Oman 55.79 -0.23

New Zealand 81.23 -0.25

Sudan 23.09 -0.25

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Q1-Q2 2018 - AFRICA7

0.26 0.26

0.060.05 0.05

-0.07-0.11

-0.25

-0.31-0.33

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dem. Rep.Of theCongo

Egypt South Africa Zimbabwe Ghana Tunisia Senegal Sudan Gabon Ethiopia

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Africa

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Bottom 5 - Africa

Q1-Q2 2018 - AMERICAS8

Bottom 5 - Americas

1.03

0.330.21 0.21

0.17

-0.08 -0.11 -0.12

-0.34-0.42

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Honduras Costa Rica Colombia Panama Ecuador UnitedStates

Nicaragua Guyana Mexico Canada

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Americas

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 - ASIA9

Bottom 5 - Asia

0.51

0.310.27 0.24 0.21

-0.09-0.13 -0.14

-0.23

-0.69

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Philippines Uzbekistan Mauritius Indonesia Vietnam China Sri Lanka Malaysia Maldives Laos

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Asia

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 - AUSTRALASIA10

Bottom 5 - Australasia

0.020 0 0 0 0 0

-0.07

-0.25

-0.58

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Australia MarshallIslands

Micronesia(Fed.

States)

NewCaledonia

Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Fiji NewZealand

Papua NewGuinea

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Australasia

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 - CARIBBEAN11

Bottom 5 - Caribbean

0.4 0.4

0.12 0.12 0.08

0 0 0-0.05

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

St Vincent &Grenadines

Grenada St Lucia Bermuda Trinidad &Tobago

Haiti Bahamas Jamaica Cuba Barbados

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Caribbean

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 - CEE12

Bottom 5 - CEE

0.46

0.27

0.10.07 0.06

-0.02 -0.02-0.06

-0.13

-0.24-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - CEE

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 – MIDDLE EAST13

Bottom 5 – Middle East

0.03 0.030.02

0 0-0.01 -0.01

-0.02

-0.17

-0.23

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Kuwait SaudiArabia

Israel Iran Iraq Bahrain Qatar Jordan Lebanon Oman

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Middle East

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

Q1-Q2 2018 – WESTERN EUROPE14

Bottom 5 – Western Europe

0.73

0.36

0.170.15

0.06-0.01 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06

-0.09

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Luxembourg Greece Spain France Norway Austria Switzerland Sweden Italy Germany

Q/Q

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Western Europe

2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q

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Region Score Rank

Up Down Up Down

Africa 32 18 19 28

Americas 15 7 10 11

Asia 21 11 12 14

Australasia 7 4 5 5

Caribbean 8 5 2 11

Central & Eastern Europe 22 3 17 7

Middle East 5 8 4 7

Western Europe 16 2 10 3

Total 126 58 79 86

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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q2 2018-2017

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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS – TOP/BOTTOM 5Country 2018 Q2 Score Y/Y Change

Top 5

Slovenia 67.95 5.6

Egypt 37.64 4.96

Belarus 30.22 4.80

Ghana 42.36 4.79

Angola 36.08 4.68

Bottom 5

Panama 67.40 -2.63

Qatar 51.09 -2.83

Macau 67.67 -4.00

Bermuda 52.87 -4.19

Brunei 47.01 -7.36

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AFRICA18

Bottom 5 – Africa

4.96 4.794.68 4.48

3.89

-1.3-1.42

-1.68 -1.95-2.5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egypt Ghana Angola Côte d‘Ivoire

Nigeria Sierra Leone Swaziland Algeria Gabon South Africa

Y/Y

CH

AN

GE

2018

Q2

SCO

RE

Top 5 - Africa

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AMERICAS19

Bottom 5 – Americas

3.67 3.543.3 3.03

2.8

-0.13-0.42

-0.6 -0.66

-2.63-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Suriname Bolivia Belize Argentina Chile Colombia Peru Guyana UnitedStates

Panama

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Americas

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – ASIA20

1.28 1.22 1.1 1.06 0.92

-1.88-2.28 -2.5

-4

-7.36-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pakistan China Bhutan Afghanistan Sri Lanka Taiwan Philippines Korea South Macau Brunei

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Asia

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Bottom 5 – Asia

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AUSTRALASIA21

2.151.99

1.81

1.491.31

0.29

-0.01-0.27 -0.39

-1.25-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

MarshallIslands

Papua NewGuinea

Tonga Australia Micronesia(Fed.

States)

Fiji Samoa SolomonIslands

Vanuatu NewZealand

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Australasia

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Bottom 5 – Australasia

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – CARIBBEAN22

Bottom 5 –Caribbean

1.250.75

0.68 0.65 0.6-0.14 -0.28

-0.58

-2.38

-4.19

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Antigua &Barbuda

Jamaica Grenada St Lucia Dominica Barbados Bahamas Cuba Trinidad &Tobago

Bermuda

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Caribbean

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – CEE23

Bottom 5 –CEE5.6

4.84.51

3.82 3.56

0.18 0.13 -0.27

-1.08

-2.17-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - CEE

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – MIDDLE EAST24

Bottom 5 –Middle East

4.664.25

2.942.27

0.01

-1.3-1.58

-2.49 -2.61-2.83

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yemen Lebanon Iraq Jordan Syria Oman Iran Bahrain United ArabEmirates

Qatar

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Middle East

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – WESTERN EUROPE25

4.25 4.18

3.64

2.32 2.14

0.08 0.03 0-0.11 -0.24

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Greece Portugal Italy Spain Sweden Germany Switzerland Iceland Norway Belgium

Y/Y

cha

nge

2018

Q2

Scor

e

Top 5 - Western Europe

2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y

Bottom 5 –Western Europe

Map out the direction of travel for regional and country risk, using ECR’s country risk timeline and score movement information.

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CONTACTSAmelia LoweProgramme ManagerEuromoney Country RiskTel: 0207 779 7311amelia.lowe@euromoney.com

Alex Vaughan-Fowler

Associate Publisher

Euromoney Data

Tel: 0207 779 7298

alex.vaughanfowler@euromoneyplc.com