160,000 Years

160,000 Years

18,000 years

1000 years

Climate of the last 1000 yr

Last 140 years

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html

Greenhouse Gases

Volcanoes

Volcanic aerosol loading

Aerosol lifetime

Last 50 years

Pinatubo

Troposphere and Stratospheric Response

Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols

Cooling to offset warming

Estimated Sulfur Emissions

Climate Models

1-D Radiative convective

models

2-D Models

3-D Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model

Radiative Forcing 1-D Model

Observations

Natural

Anthropogenic

Natural & Anthropogenic

19,20,21 century Temp

21 century temps

2071-2100 mean – 1961-1990 mean A2

2071-2100 mean – 1961-1990 mean B2

Surface warming Stratospheric cooling

Surface warming Stratospheric cooling

Stratospheric Ozone

Polar Stratospheric Clouds& CFCs

Stratospheric Temps

Atmospheric CO2

Ozone loss cools stratosphere increases PSCs and enhances Ozone loss

CO2 increases cools stratosphere increases PSCs and enhances Ozone loss

So even as CFCs drop PSCs may increase and delay ozone hole recovery

Sea Level

Sea Level Changes

Future Sea Level Rises

Climate Change