29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

Status of AROME model delelopments

Yann Seity, Pierre Brousseau, Thibaut Montmerle, Gwennaëlle Hello, Sylvie Malardel,Valéry Masson, Yves Bidet,

Patrick Santurette ( Météo-France) …

29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

Historical introduction Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ Examples of ‘good AROME forecasts’ Remaining known problems and solutions Conclusion and outlooks

Introduction

Application of Research to Operational at Meso-scalE

- First version of the AROME ‘prototype’ in 2004 on CY28

-NH

RRTM, FM (6 bands)

Surfex 2 bf5

MASDEV_47 : ICE3, 1D turb (BL89 closure), KFB

CY32T3 :

Introduction

- Daily experimentations of the prototype on ¼ of France since May 2005

AROME FRAN (512x512)

- Daily experimentations on France since January 2007 (NEC SX8R) without data assimilation

Introduction

- September 2007 : Configuration of AROME suite on operational NEC computer with data assimilation (30 h forecasts at 0, 6, 12 and 18 TU)

- Spring 2008 : AROME pre-operational suit managed by operational team

- October 2008 : AROME declared operational at Meteo-France

- End of 2009 : NEC v2 : x5 : increase vertical resolutionModel domain (600x512x41) Domain provided to forecasters

(LAT-LON 0.025)

First design of the ‘operational’ suite

Coupling files

Guess

Technical overview :

Cycling of hydrometeores

60s time step, Full radiation every 15’

64 processors, hourly coupling with ALADIN-France

= 30’ elapse

AROME suite : on 64 procs, FC24 performed in 30’ elapse

Cost of AROME Physics :

First design of the ‘operational’ suite

Shallow

Convection

8%

Turbulence

19%

Surface

4%

I nterfaces

12%

Microphysics

15%

Radiation

42%

SL advection

22%

Physics

24%

others

(coupling, FFT,

dynamics…)

20% Communications

34%

Currently being optimized by NEC Ingeneers

Historical introduction Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ Examples of ‘good AROME forecasts’ Remaining known problems and solutions Conclusion and outlooks

Cumulative rainfalls :August 21st 2007

AROME

ALADIN

Radar

RR 24h 6-6TU

AROME

ALADIN

Radar

RR 24h 6-6TU

AROME : Good structures and maxima localisation, but excessive in terms of intensity.

Cumulative rainfalls :August 23rd 2007

Foehn over « Massif Central »

HU AROMEFC+12h

Satellite VIS picture

Frontal precipitation bands (1)

Système frontal dont la structure verticale présente une cassure : en altitude le front se détache de sa partie en basses couches et le front dans les couches moyennes et supérieures (au-dessus de 700 hPa environ) avance plus vite que la trace de basses couches.

A thin cold front precipitating band.

Simulated radar reflectivity (FC+13h ) vs radar picture, 1 Mars 2007 ; 13 UTC

Vertical velocity, w (updrafts in red)

31 May 2006 on SUDE domain

31 May 2006– Change of wind and Temperature due to cold air coming from the Alps

31 May 2006 : 9 UTC

AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps)

31 May 2006 : 12 UTC

AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps)

31 May 2006 : 18 UTC

AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps)

Temperatures (1)

Températures Tourettes - 31 mai 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Heure (UTC)

°C

Observation Arome Aladin

Températures Seillans - 31 mai 2006

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Heure (UTC)°C

Observation Arome Aladin

A Flood case

AROME cumulative rainfall from 3 TU to 6 TU (FC30-FC27 )

A Flood case

Historical introduction Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ Example of ‘good AROME forecasts’ Remaining known problems and solutions Conclusion and outlooks

Statistic sedimentation scheme for precipitations

n

n+1

w. Δtw, qrΔz

Fn

Fn+1 = ?

P1= min (1, w Δt ) (Proportion of the layer falling during dt)

Δz

P2= max (0, 1 - Δz ) (Proportion of Fn falling through the layer during dt )

wΔt

(Yves Bouteloup, JF Geleyn)

Fn+1= P1. ρ.qr.Δz + P2.FnΔt

AROME 60s

AROME Sedim

Before : Eulerian discretisation with time splitting -> costly. Now : in CY32T2 and MASDEV_47 :

Evaluation over Austria for August 2005

(15 % of physical cost gain)

20070516 20070620 (32 days)

Ps

RR

Hu2mffV10m

ddV10m

T2m

ALADIN/AROME Scores (32 days FRAN domain)

AROME

ALADIN

RMSE

Biais

Double pain ?

Arome REF

Arome NO DifHor

T and wind near the surface

Méso-NH

Arome Hydro

Over-estimated downdrafts (April 11th 2007)

Arome REF

Arome NO DifHor

Instantaneous rainfalls

Méso-NH

Arome Hydro

Arome REF

Arome NO DifHor

Wind strength near surface

Méso-NH

Arome Hydro

New shallow convection scheme : EDKF

- Motivation : improve representation of stratocumulus ans shallow cumulus.

-Mass flux formulation (Malardel Masson, Soares et al. 2004) with subgrid autoconversion. Independant from turbulence scheme.

-Validated on 1d cases (Wangara, Ayotte), and in some 3d cases in AROME and MesoNH, with some CLOUDNET datas over Cabauw.

- Updraft comparison with RACMO (KNMI)

- Will be used in AROME daily runs in one month when merged to the recent CY32T3.

T2m Paulson

SBL laws

Surface scores

Sol

Last model level (17m)

Ta

TsT2m Geleyn

Actually :

N2

M=

2

(too co

ld)

N2

M=

1

(too h

ot)

Sol

Ta

Ts

SBL CANOPY scheme (Masson and Ramdi)

6 added levels and turb scheme in surfex

Evaluation on July 2007 and January 2007 on South East France domain :

T2m

Canopy (blue)

Ref (pink)

Stations z>300m

Stations z<300m

July 2007 January 2007

Hu2m

Canopy (blue)

Ref (pink)

Stations z>300m

Stations z<300m

July 2007 January 2007

FF V10m

Canopy (blue)

Ref (pink)

Stations z>300m

Stations z<300m

July 2007 January 2007

Behaviour over sea (5th August 2007)

Wind gusts (new AROME diagnostic based on TKE, available since CY32T2) too strong associated with a unrealistic convective system starting from spain and moving over the bay of Biscay.

Other cases reported by Hirlam over Baltic sea.

Still under investigations…

Conclusion and outlook

-AROME is on the way for an operationnal use at Meteo-France by october 2008

-New surface diagnostics has been developped and will continue to be evaluated on FRAN domain.

-Statistical formulation of precipitations sedimentations saves computer time

-EDKF convection scheme will replace KFB scheme soon

-Remaining problems are under investigation (numerical diffusion setting, behaviour over sea) - Evaluation of the model will continue with more interaction with forecasters

- Training of forecasters on how to use the model in spring 2008

- Test of hail (available in MASDEV_47 Meso-NH physics)

MAP-DPHASE and COPS

- International experiment since 1st June 2007 (to 30 November 2007 for MAP-DPHASE)

COPS

DPHA

Chemistry scheme

- MesoNH Chemistry scheme OK in AROME

(P.Tulet)

- interactive CO2 (C. Sarat, P.Tulet)

- Dusts (evaluation on AMMA)

CO2

HNO3

Dusts : MesoNH

Val d’Isère 2009

- AROME 1km : Val d’Isère 2009 (support to world skiing championship)

Thank you for your attention !

Yann Seity, Pierre Brousseau, Thibaut Montmerle, Gwennaëlle Hello, Sylvie Malardel,Valéry Masson, Yves Bidet,

Patrick Santurette ( Météo-France) …

29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

Assimilation of Doppler radar winds

AROME Assim-Doppler AROME Assim AROME-AD

Observations

AROME Assim green

AROME Assim Doppler

AROME AD

AROME Assim Doppler