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Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 1.
Christian Spiering, DESY
ASPERA-2 kickoff meetingHamburg July 7, 2009
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 2.
Emergence
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 3.
• science case• status: overview • recommendations
for convergence
• Critical assessment of plans
• Calendar for milestones and decisions
• Input for ESFRI Roadmap
• Coordinated with ASTRONET
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 4.
KM3NeT
Einstein Telescope(LISA)
Auger-Nord
CTA
Ton-scaleDouble Beta
Ton-scale Dark Matter
Megaton
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 5.
KM3NeT
Einstein Telescope(LISA)
Auger-Nord
CTA
Ton-scaleDouble Beta
Ton-scale Dark Matter
Megaton
Investment and maintenance (no personnel)
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 6.
From Deliverable D1.2
1
10
100
1000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
# o
f P
ub
licati
on
s p
er
Year
AstroparticlePhysics
Particle Astrophysics
> factor 3 increaseover last decade
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 7.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
ET
Megaton
KM3NeT
CTA
Auger-N
GERDA-III
Direct nu Mass
SuperNemo
Gerda, Cuore
Rest-DM, no IS,Ult,Sim
Eureca
Xenon-1to
All-Rest
Requests (here without DAMA-1 ton and Frejus new lab)
6 M€ 09/11 15 M€ 11/13
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 8.
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
E.T.
KM3NeT
Megaton
CTA
Auger-North
Dark Matter
Neutrino Mass
ExistingR&D, new initiatives
- without DAMA and new Frejus lab - all projects shifted according to realistic estimates- CTA: 1/3 from non-Europe- KM3NeT: 250 M€ 200 M€- Megaton: Europe contributes only 200-300 M€- DM and DBD shared with US- keep 20% for R&D and new initiatives
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 9.
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
E.T.
KM3NeT
Megaton
CTA
Auger-North
Dark Matter
Neutrino Mass
ExistingR&D, new initiatives
- can do it within a factor ~2 smooth increase over 8-10 years (investment) - personnel will increase by less
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 10.
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
E.T.
KM3NeT
Megaton
CTA
Auger-North
Dark Matter
Neutrino Mass
ExistingR&D, new initiatives
Can we do it even cheaper ?
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 11.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
KM3NeT
MegatonCTAAuger
DBDDM
ET
- further reduce CTA- further shift and reduce Megaton- further shift E.T.- somewhat reduce new initiatives
Must not reduce Augerand KM3NeT. Eitheryou build it huge or youdo not build it at all !
All this is problematic !!
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 12.
Dark Matter
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 13.
WIMPs Neutralinos Kaluza-Klein particles …
Axinos Super-WIMPs Axions Axion-like light bosons Sterile neutrinos Q-balls WIMPzillas Elementary BHs …
DM candidates:Direct Detection Indirect
Detection
LHC
WIMPs
SuperWIMPs
Axions & axion-like particles
Q-balls
BHs
WIMPzillas
Lasers
SuperWIMPs
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 14.
WIMPs Neutralinos Kaluza-Klein particles …
Axinos Super-WIMPs Axions Axion-like light bosons Sterile neutrinos Q-balls WIMPzillas Elementary BHs …
DM candidates:Direct Detection
WIMPs
target of roadmap recommendation
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 15.
SUF CDMS I
LiFElegant V&VI
BaksanIGEX
Gran SassoDAMA/LIBRACRESST I/IIGenius TFCUORICINOXENONWArP
CanFrancIGEXROSEBUDANAIS
LSMEDELWEISS I/II
BoulbyNaIADZEPLIN I/II/IIIDRIFT 1/2
Soudan CDMS II
XMASSCandle
KIMS
ORPHEUS
FNAL COUPP
SNOLABPicassoDEAPSuperCDMS
ArDM
DUSELLUXCLEANSIGN
Figure from D. Bauer, TAUP
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 16.
10-4
10-10
10-8
10-6
Cro
ss s
ectio
n (p
b)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
- BackgroundBackground- StabilityStability- Funding Funding - InfrastructureInfrastructure
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 17.1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
10-4
10-10
10-8
10-6
Cro
ss s
ectio
n (p
b)
We are now here
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 18.1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
10-4
10-10
10-8
10-6
Cro
ss s
ectio
n (p
b)
- Background - Background (liquids)(liquids)
- Stability Stability (bolometers)(bolometers)
Expectation late 2010: CDMS
CRESST, EURECA Xenon-100
Warp-140 ….
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 19.
CRESST
EdelweissEURECA-
100EURECA
@ ton scale
LXe
LAr
LAr
LXe
…
Now: 10 kg scale 2009/12: 100 kg scale 2011-17: constr. ton scale
Towards ton-scale zero-background detectors
modular expansion, cooperation with CDMS (USA)
Darwin
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 20.
• Support current round of experiments at high priority, also technology development towards their next-generation versions
• A recommendation on which of the technologies should first move to a next stage can only be made after first results from present experiments with 10-100 kg target mass become available and after noise rejection and sensitivity/cost ratio for ton-scale detectors can be judged on a more realistic basis.
• This milestone can be reached by 2010 or 2011.
• As soon as one of the technologies turns out to be clearly superior in sensitivity, cost, and timing Promote it with priority! At the same time, a second technology must be systematically prepared since a possible positive observation by the first method would call for a prompt, independent confirmation.
• In an ideal scenario, LHC observations of new particles at the weak scale could place these observations in a well-confined particle physics context. Also, direct detection would be supported by indirect signatures. In case of a discovery, “smoking-gun signatures” of direct detection such as directionality and annual variations would be measured in detail.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 21.
Properties of Neutrinos
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 22.
• Direct Mass Measurements – KATRIN, start 2012, down to 0.2 eV
– MARE R&D
• Double Beta Decay Experiments– See following slides
• Mixing Parameters– Double CHOOZ– T2K, CNGS
(with European participation)
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 23.
CANDLESXMASSDCBASNO
+
EXOMAJORAN
A
GERDACUORECOBRA
SUPERNEMO
TGV
NEXT
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 24.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 25.
2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014
now
design study
construction
operation
operation
construction
operation
operation
NEMO-3
Super-NEMO
CUORICINO
CUORE
bolometric 41 kg 130Te
construction operation GERDA
bolometric 740 kg 130Te
tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se
tracking 100 kg 150Nd/82Se
18 40 kg 76Ge
construction operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xedesign study
(Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)
Roadmap presentation 08
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 26.
2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014
now
design study
construction
operation
operation
construction
operation
oper
NEMO-3
Super-NEMO
CUORICINO
CUORE
bolometric 41 kg 130Te
construction operation GERDA
bolometric 740 kg 130Te
tracking 8 kg 130Mo/82Se
tracking 100 kg 150Nd/82Se
18 40 kg 76Ge
Construct. operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130Xedesign study
(Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 27.
• Priority to experiments starting operation within 5 years– GERDA (phase I and II) – CUORE – Super-NEMO
• Complementary nuclei/methods essential to judge any positive claim or upper limit.
• Will scrutinize the claimed evidence in 76Ge, will touch the “inverted hierarchy” mass range.
• Other methods may become competitive in the future.• At the same time, envisage an experiment on the 1-ton-isotope
scale, which will peer deep into the inverted hierarchy range. Two options discussed, both with worldwide cost sharing:– GERDA III as merger of GERDA with Majorana (USA)– CUORE with enriched tellurium, USA participation.
• Milestone: Decision on the isotopes/ techniques 2012/13.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 28.
Low Energy Neutrino Astronomy and
Proton Decay
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 29.
MEMPHYS 700 kton water
GLACIER100 kton liquid argon
LENA50 kt scintillator
50 m
FP7 design study
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 30.
• Proton decay: improve sensitivity by > factor 10 and test a new class of Supersymmetry models
• Galactic Supernova: 104- 105 events Incredibly detailed information on the early SN phase
• Diffuse flux from past SN: probe cosmological star formation rate
• Solar neutrinos: details of the Standard Solar Model determined with percent accuracy
• Atmospheric neutrinos: high statistics would improve knowledge neutrino mixing and provide unique information on the neutrino mass hierarchy
• Geo-neutrinos: improve understanding of the Earth interior• Indirect WIMP search • Neutrinos from accelerators over a long baseline (also with
dedicated smaller detectors): neutrino properties
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 31.
• Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010.
• Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector)
• Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 32.
• Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010.
• Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector)
• Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 33.
The High Energy Universe
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 34.
primary mass composition
galactic sourcesmass composition
CR astronomy,GZK physics,HE neutrinos, …
galactic extragalactic
antimatter, dark matter, mass composition
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 35.
primary mass composition
galactic sourcesmass composition
CR astronomy,GZK physics,HE neutrinos, …
galactic extragalactic
antimatter, dark matter, mass composition
Tantalizing results from Pamela
Launch AMS June 2010 !!
Auger
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 36.
106
103
104
105
102
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fly‘s eye
AGASa
HiRes
Auger-S
Auger-NJEM-EUSO(space)
Telescope Array
107Exposure(km² sr year)
year
similar: TUS
AGASA
AugerSouth
TA
AugerNorth
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 37.
106
103
104
105
102
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fly‘s eye
AGASa
HiRes
Auger-S
Auger-NJEM-EUSO(space)
Telescope Array
107Exposure(km² sr year)
year
similar: TUS
AGASA
AugerSouth
TA
AugerNorth
Since last year:
- New skymap strengthens non-isotropy- CEN-A clustering ?!- AGN correlation has weakened- Heavy composition towards HE- HE suppression confirmed
- Request for Helmholtz „ignition funding“- Decadal Review, PASAG (USA)
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 38.
• Auger-North: high statistics astronomy with reasonably fast data collection calls for a substantially larger array than Auger South, full sky coverage calls for a Northern site. A larger array would also allow a more detailed inspection of the high energy cut-off of the particle spectrum, which recently has been firmly established by Auger-South.
• Recommendation: The priority project for high energy cosmic ray physics is Auger. We encourage the agencies in different continents to work towards a common path for Auger-North. We recommend the construction of such a large array as soon as worldwide agreements allow.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 39.
2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014
now
design, prototypes
construction
construction + operation
operation
operation
construction
operation
operation
Oper.
MAGIC-I
MAGIC- II
H.E.S.S.
H.E.S.S.- II
CTA
four 11-m telescopes
+ one 25-m telescope
one 17-m telescope
2nd 17-m telescope
Coordination with
USA, Japan, Australia
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 40.
Increased sensitivity
Extended energy range
Improved angular resolution
Observatory with flexible and robotic operation
Arrays in North and South for full sky coverage
50 to 100 large, medium and small telescopes
CTA
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 41.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Design and Prototype Phase
Array layout
Components
Telescopes
Array construction
VERITAS
MAGIC II
H.E.S.S. IIFermi
Science operation
Startup meeting
FP7 proposal
Consortium
Japan will join CTAMoU with AGIS under preparation
Davis-Cotton vs. Schwarzschild?
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 42.
• CTA: From “experiment” to “observatory”
• Expect ~ 1000 sources• Ultimately, a Northern and a Southern CTA instrument, should
provide full-sky coverage. Coordination with AGIS (USA))• CTA on ESFRI list and priority entry in the ASTRONET
roadmap.
• Recommendation: The priority project of VHE gamma astrophysics is CTA. We recommend design and prototyping of CTA and selection of site(s), and proceeding decidedly towards start of deployment in 2012.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 43.
FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase
oonstruction + operation
construction + operation
operation
operation
constrn.
operation
operation
operat
NT200, NT200+
ANTARES
AMANDA
IceCube
KM3NeT
GVD
c + o
R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO
design study construction + operation
operat
2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014
now
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 44.
FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase
oonstruction + operation
construction + operation
operation
operation
constrn.
operation
operation
operat
NT200, NT200+
ANTARES
AMANDA
IceCube
KM3NeT
GVD
c + o
R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO
design study construction + operation
operat
2012201020082006 2007 20172015201320112009 20162014
now
ESFRI listASTRONET priority list
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 45.
IceCube 3/4 complete
ANTARES again fully operational
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 46.
IceCube 3/4 complete
TeV-PeV
PeV-EeV
IceCube full sky analysis (6 months 2008)does not reveal any hint for a point source
Challenges KM3NeT sensitivity !
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 47.
factor
1000in 15 years !
KM3NeT target 3 years
Point sources: Tremendous progress in sensitivity over last decade
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 48.
• Recommendation: The priority project for high energy neutrino astronomy is KM3NeT. Encouraged by the significant technical progress of recent years, the support for working towards KM3NeT is confirmed. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled into a single optimised design for a large research infrastructure, with installation starting in 2012. The sensitivity of KM3NeT must substantially exceed that of all existing neutrino detectors including IceCube.
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 49.
Gravitational Waves
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 50.
Virgo/LIGO
Adv Virgo/ Adv LIGO
Several to several hundred sources per year
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 51.
103 to 105 sources per year
FP7 design study
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 52.
´06 ´07 ´08 ´09 ´10 ´11 ´12 ´13 ´14 ´15 ´16 ´17 ´18 ´19 ´20 ´21 ´22
Virgo
GEO
LIGO
LISA
E.T.
Virgo+
LIGO+
Advanced Virgo
GEO HF
Advanced LIGO
DS PCP Construct. Commiss.
HanfordHanford
LivingstonLivingston
Launch Transfer data
Data
Now
1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Gen.
Time Chart
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 53.
• E.T.: the long-term future project of ground-based gravitational wave astronomy in Europe.
• European GW community has world-leading role in planning. Similar studies in Japan.
• First technical design and associated costing expected in 2011, followed by a ‘Preparatory Phase’.
• A decision on funding for the construction of E.T. will earliest after first detections with enhanced LIGO/Virgo but is most likely after collecting about a year of data with advanced LIGO/Virgo in approximately 2014/15. Targeted start of E.T. construction ~ 2017.
• At low frequencies: LISA (LISA-Pathfinder 2010)
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 54.
KM3NeT
Einstein Telescope(LISA)
Auger-Nord
CTA
Ton-scaleDouble Beta
Ton-scale Dark Matter
Megaton
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 55.
KM3NeT
Einstein Telescope(LISA)
Auger-Nord
CTA
Ton-scaleDouble Beta
Ton-scale Dark Matter
Megaton
Important funding decisions in many countries taken 1.OECD document, decadal review/PASAG, role of CERN,... DM: ~10-8 pb by several experiments DBD: first results from GERDA-I LAGUNA: DS finished, converge on sites and technologies Cosmic rays:
First results from AMS Auger North: 1.5x more data from Auger South
HE gammas MAGIC-II results, hopefully HESS-2 operating CTA prototype telescopes being constructed
HE neutrinos 2 km³ years with IceCube Details of KM3NeT: converging to final decisions
Grav. Waves: Virgo+, Ligo+ delivering first data, advanced detectors being prepared
Astroparticle Physics for Europe
C. Spiering, Planck 09 56.
KM3NeT
Einstein Telescope(LISA)
Auger-Nord
CTA
Ton-scaleDouble Beta
Ton-scale Dark Matter
Megaton
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