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BATTLEGROUNDPresidential Tracking 2004
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?
[Unaided Ballot]
47%47%45%45%45%44%45%44%45%45%46%45%43%
43%
43%
39%39%39%40%40%39%40%40%38%
40%39%40%
44%
41%39%
1%1%1%
1%1%1%1%1%1%
1%
1%1%
1%
1% 1%1%2%1%
1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
1%
1%
1%
12%13%13%13%14%15%14%15%
16%14%14%14%
13%15%12%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 43% 43% 43% 45% 46% 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47%
Kerry 39% 41% 44% 40% 39% 40% 38% 40% 40% 39% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39%
Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Unsure 15% 13% 12% 14% 14% 14% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9%
41%42%40%40%40%39%39%39%40%40%41%40%40% 39%38%
7%7%5%5%
50%50%51%52%52%53%52%52%53%53%53%53%54%55%57%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Right Direction 38% 40% 39% 40% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 42% 41%
Unsure 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9%
Wrong Track 57% 55% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 53% 52% 52% 51% 50% 50%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
George W. Bush Name ID
56%56%54%54%55%55%55%55%55%54%54%53%51% 51%51%
42%42%43%44%43%42%43%43%43%44%44%44%47%47%46%
2%2%3%2%3%2%2% 2%2%2%2%3%2%
2%3%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Favorable 51% 51% 51% 53% 54% 54% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 56% 56%
Unfavorable 46% 47% 47% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 43% 44% 43% 42% 42%
No Opinion 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
George W. Bush Name ID
42%41%40%39%39%39%38%37%37%38%39%39%
37%38%38%
32%32%33%33%32%31%32%32%
33%33%33%33%
38%37%36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Strongly Favorable 38% 37% 38% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 41% 42%
Strongly Unfavorable 36% 37% 38% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 31% 32% 33% 33% 32% 32%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
John Kerry Name ID
48%
48%
49%50%51%51%50%49%49%49%49%49%49%51%
54%52%
47%46%45%45%46%47%46%46%46%47%46%42%43%
39%
3%4%4%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%
5%4%5%8%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Favorable 52% 51% 54% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 51% 51% 50% 49% 48%
Unfavorable 39% 43% 42% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46% 47% 46% 45% 45% 46% 47% 48%
No Opinion 8% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
John Kerry Name ID
34% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35%
25%26%27%28%27%25%
24%23%
24%26%
27%27%26%
30%
26%
35%34%34%33%33%32%32%31%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Strongly Favorable 26% 26% 30% 27% 27% 26% 24% 23% 24% 25% 27% 28% 27% 26% 25%
Strongly Unfavorable 27% 31% 32% 32% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
How would you rate the job George W. Bush has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4%
53%53%52%52%52%53%53%53%53%53%52%52%51% 52%50%
3%2%2%5%
43%43%44%45%45%45%44%44%44%45%45%45%46%48%45%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Approve 50% 51% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53%
Unsure 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4%
Disapprove 45% 48% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43% 43%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
If the election was held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat?
51%51%50%49%49%50%50%49%50%49%49%
48% 47%
48% 49%
44%44%45%46%46%45%45%46%45%46%45%
49%
48%
49%
45%
1%1%1%1% 1% 1%
4%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%6%3% 4% 4%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 48% 48% 47% 49% 49% 49% 50% 49% 50% 50% 49% 49% 50% 51% 51%
Kerry 49% 48% 49% 45% 45% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 44% 44%
Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other/Undecided 3% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
If the election was held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat?
45%44%43%43%43%44%44%43%43%43%43%43%40%
41%
44%
38%38%39%40%40%39%39%39%38%38%38%38%
43%
40%41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush Definitely 44% 40% 41% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 44% 45%
Kerry Definitely 41% 40% 43% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
If the election for Congress were being held today, & you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?
14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12%
42%42%42%42%42%43%43%42%41%41%41%42%41% 43%40%
14%11%11%
14%
46%45%44%44%43%44%43%44%45%45%45%44%46%48%
46%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Republican 40% 41% 43% 42% 41% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42%
Undecided 14% 11% 11% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12%
Democrat 46% 48% 46% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 44% 45% 46%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Safeguarding America from a terrorist threat
33% 33% 32%35% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33%
58%57%56%56%56%57%58%59%59%58%58%57%55% 54%59%
34%34%37%36%36%
9%10%10%11%10%9%8%8%9%9%9%9%9%9%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bush 59% 55% 54% 57% 58% 58% 59% 59% 58% 57% 56% 56% 56% 57% 58%
Kerry 36% 36% 37% 34% 33% 33% 32% 34% 35% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33%
None/ Unsure 5% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Dealing with Iraq
54%56%55%55%55%54%55%55%55%55%55%54%
51% 53%54%
38%36%38%38%39%39%39%39%38%38%37%38%41%42%40%
8%8%8%8%7%7%6%6%8%7%8%8%6%7%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bush 54% 51% 53% 54% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 55% 55% 55% 56% 54%
Kerry 40% 42% 41% 38% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 36% 38%
None/Unsure 6% 7% 6% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Creating jobs
48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 48%
43%42%42%41%42%43%44%43%43%43%42%42%42%40%37%
49%51%49%
54%
10%11%11%11%10%9%8%8%9%10%10%10%9%9%9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bush 37% 42% 40% 42% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44% 43% 42% 41% 42% 42% 43%
Kerry 54% 49% 51% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 48%
None/Unsure 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Keeping America prosperous
49%49%47%47%46%47%48%48%47%47%48%47%47%
45%42% 44%44%45%45%45%44%45%45%45%45%44%45%
48%
46%
49%
7%8%8%9%9%8%8%7%8%8%8%9%7%8%9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 42% 47% 45% 47% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 46% 47% 47% 49% 49%
Kerry 49% 46% 48% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44%
None/ Unsure 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Is a strong leader
35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35%
57%57%55%55%55%56%57%57%57%56%56%55%54% 53%56%
37%41%38%39%
8%9%9%9%9%9%8%8%9%9%9%8%7%8%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bush 56% 54% 53% 55% 56% 56% 57% 57% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 57% 57%
Kerry 39% 38% 41% 37% 35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35%
None/ Unsure 6% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Shares your values
50%49%49%49%49%50%50%50%49%49%49%49%48% 47%47%
41%42%43%43%44%43%42%44%44%44%43%43%46%
44%47%
9%9%8%9%7%7%7%7%7%7%8%8%7%7%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 47% 48% 47% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50%
Kerry 47% 44% 46% 43% 43% 44% 44% 44% 42% 43% 44% 43% 43% 42% 41%
None/ Unsure 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%
3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Representing middle class values
42%43%
48%48%
9%9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 43% 42%
Kerry 48% 48%
None/ Unsure 9% 9%
Week 1 Week 3
Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Leading America in the Right Direction
49%
44%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
None/ Unsure 7%
Week 2 Week 4
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