BATTLEGROUNDPresidential Tracking 2004

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?

[Unaided Ballot]

47%47%45%45%45%44%45%44%45%45%46%45%43%

43%

43%

39%39%39%40%40%39%40%40%38%

40%39%40%

44%

41%39%

1%1%1%

1%1%1%1%1%1%

1%

1%1%

1%

1% 1%1%2%1%

1%1%1%1%1%1%1%

1%

1%

1%

12%13%13%13%14%15%14%15%

16%14%14%14%

13%15%12%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 43% 43% 43% 45% 46% 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47%

Kerry 39% 41% 44% 40% 39% 40% 38% 40% 40% 39% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39%

Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Unsure 15% 13% 12% 14% 14% 14% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9%

41%42%40%40%40%39%39%39%40%40%41%40%40% 39%38%

7%7%5%5%

50%50%51%52%52%53%52%52%53%53%53%53%54%55%57%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Right Direction 38% 40% 39% 40% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 42% 41%

Unsure 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9%

Wrong Track 57% 55% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 53% 52% 52% 51% 50% 50%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

George W. Bush Name ID

56%56%54%54%55%55%55%55%55%54%54%53%51% 51%51%

42%42%43%44%43%42%43%43%43%44%44%44%47%47%46%

2%2%3%2%3%2%2% 2%2%2%2%3%2%

2%3%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Favorable 51% 51% 51% 53% 54% 54% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 56% 56%

Unfavorable 46% 47% 47% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 43% 44% 43% 42% 42%

No Opinion 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

George W. Bush Name ID

42%41%40%39%39%39%38%37%37%38%39%39%

37%38%38%

32%32%33%33%32%31%32%32%

33%33%33%33%

38%37%36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Strongly Favorable 38% 37% 38% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 41% 42%

Strongly Unfavorable 36% 37% 38% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 31% 32% 33% 33% 32% 32%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

John Kerry Name ID

48%

48%

49%50%51%51%50%49%49%49%49%49%49%51%

54%52%

47%46%45%45%46%47%46%46%46%47%46%42%43%

39%

3%4%4%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%

5%4%5%8%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Favorable 52% 51% 54% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 51% 51% 50% 49% 48%

Unfavorable 39% 43% 42% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46% 47% 46% 45% 45% 46% 47% 48%

No Opinion 8% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

John Kerry Name ID

34% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35%

25%26%27%28%27%25%

24%23%

24%26%

27%27%26%

30%

26%

35%34%34%33%33%32%32%31%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Strongly Favorable 26% 26% 30% 27% 27% 26% 24% 23% 24% 25% 27% 28% 27% 26% 25%

Strongly Unfavorable 27% 31% 32% 32% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

How would you rate the job George W. Bush has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4%

53%53%52%52%52%53%53%53%53%53%52%52%51% 52%50%

3%2%2%5%

43%43%44%45%45%45%44%44%44%45%45%45%46%48%45%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Approve 50% 51% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 52% 53% 53%

Unsure 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4%

Disapprove 45% 48% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43% 43%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election was held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat?

51%51%50%49%49%50%50%49%50%49%49%

48% 47%

48% 49%

44%44%45%46%46%45%45%46%45%46%45%

49%

48%

49%

45%

1%1%1%1% 1% 1%

4%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%6%3% 4% 4%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 48% 48% 47% 49% 49% 49% 50% 49% 50% 50% 49% 49% 50% 51% 51%

Kerry 49% 48% 49% 45% 45% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 46% 46% 45% 44% 44%

Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other/Undecided 3% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election was held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat?

45%44%43%43%43%44%44%43%43%43%43%43%40%

41%

44%

38%38%39%40%40%39%39%39%38%38%38%38%

43%

40%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush Definitely 44% 40% 41% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 44% 45%

Kerry Definitely 41% 40% 43% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election for Congress were being held today, & you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?

14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12%

42%42%42%42%42%43%43%42%41%41%41%42%41% 43%40%

14%11%11%

14%

46%45%44%44%43%44%43%44%45%45%45%44%46%48%

46%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Republican 40% 41% 43% 42% 41% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42%

Undecided 14% 11% 11% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 13% 12%

Democrat 46% 48% 46% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 44% 45% 46%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Safeguarding America from a terrorist threat

33% 33% 32%35% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33%

58%57%56%56%56%57%58%59%59%58%58%57%55% 54%59%

34%34%37%36%36%

9%10%10%11%10%9%8%8%9%9%9%9%9%9%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bush 59% 55% 54% 57% 58% 58% 59% 59% 58% 57% 56% 56% 56% 57% 58%

Kerry 36% 36% 37% 34% 33% 33% 32% 34% 35% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33%

None/ Unsure 5% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Dealing with Iraq

54%56%55%55%55%54%55%55%55%55%55%54%

51% 53%54%

38%36%38%38%39%39%39%39%38%38%37%38%41%42%40%

8%8%8%8%7%7%6%6%8%7%8%8%6%7%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bush 54% 51% 53% 54% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 55% 55% 55% 56% 54%

Kerry 40% 42% 41% 38% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 36% 38%

None/Unsure 6% 7% 6% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Creating jobs

48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 48%

43%42%42%41%42%43%44%43%43%43%42%42%42%40%37%

49%51%49%

54%

10%11%11%11%10%9%8%8%9%10%10%10%9%9%9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bush 37% 42% 40% 42% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44% 43% 42% 41% 42% 42% 43%

Kerry 54% 49% 51% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 48%

None/Unsure 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Keeping America prosperous

49%49%47%47%46%47%48%48%47%47%48%47%47%

45%42% 44%44%45%45%45%44%45%45%45%45%44%45%

48%

46%

49%

7%8%8%9%9%8%8%7%8%8%8%9%7%8%9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 42% 47% 45% 47% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 46% 47% 47% 49% 49%

Kerry 49% 46% 48% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 45% 45% 45% 44% 44%

None/ Unsure 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Is a strong leader

35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35%

57%57%55%55%55%56%57%57%57%56%56%55%54% 53%56%

37%41%38%39%

8%9%9%9%9%9%8%8%9%9%9%8%7%8%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Bush 56% 54% 53% 55% 56% 56% 57% 57% 57% 56% 55% 55% 55% 57% 57%

Kerry 39% 38% 41% 37% 35% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35%

None/ Unsure 6% 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Shares your values

50%49%49%49%49%50%50%50%49%49%49%49%48% 47%47%

41%42%43%43%44%43%42%44%44%44%43%43%46%

44%47%

9%9%8%9%7%7%7%7%7%7%8%8%7%7%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 47% 48% 47% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50%

Kerry 47% 44% 46% 43% 43% 44% 44% 44% 42% 43% 44% 43% 43% 42% 41%

None/ Unsure 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%

3/31/04 6/23/04 8/17/04 9/15/04 9/16/04 9/19/04 9/20/04 9/21/04 9/22/04 9/23/04 9/26/04 9/27/04 9/28/04 9/29/04 9/30/04

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Representing middle class values

42%43%

48%48%

9%9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 43% 42%

Kerry 48% 48%

None/ Unsure 9% 9%

Week 1 Week 3

Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Leading America in the Right Direction

49%

44%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Bush 49%

Kerry 44%

None/ Unsure 7%

Week 2 Week 4