Citizen Beliefs and Public Opinion Polls

Citizen Beliefs and Public Opinion Polls

Agenda

1) Announcements2) Homework Article Recap and Hand in3) Argumentative Essay Practice4) Argumentative Frankenstein5) Unit 5 Notes: Voting and Voting Behavior6) Homework

ANNOUNCEMENTUnit 4: Ideology and Polling Quiz (UPDATED)

AP A: Wednesday 4/3AP B: Tuesday 4/2

AP 9: Wednesday 4/3

Focus on notes and Unit 4 Review Sheet (Provided by 3/28 on class website)

JournalWhere does your political ideology come

from? In other words, what helps to shape your political opinions?

Core Values● Individualism - belief in fundamental worth and importance of an

individual● Equal Opportunity - Equals right to pursue life liberty and happiness● Free Enterprise - “laissez-faire” approach to business. Let business

succeed or fail based on their decisions and consumer● Rule of Law - Law applies equally to all members of society.

Prevents leaders who see themselves above the law● Limited Government - Government kept in control by check and

balances

The Liberal-Conservative Spectrum● Liberal (left) - open to allowing government flexibly

expand beyond established constraints● Conservative (right) - following tradition and having

reverence for authority● Democrats tend to embody liberals and Republicans

conservative but that is an oversimplification

The Liberal-Conservative Spectrum

“Off the Line”● Some people simply to not fall on the linear chart● Libertarians - oppose government intervention or

regulation. High regard for civil liberties (Bill of rights)● Populists - Follow fundamental Christian ideas (love thy

neighbor, contribute to charity, follow strict moral code)● Progressives - Workers’ rights over corportate rights,

wealthy should pay more taxes

Political SocializationHow does one develop political beliefs?

● Family - long regarded and biggest influence● School and College - Topics in class that allow teachers

to influence● Peers - Race and ethnic heritage● Media - More time in front of screens and exposure to

info

Political Socialization● Religious Institutions - Churches and places of worship● Civic Institutions - Girl scout, athlete on neighborhood

team, volunteer etc● Location - Key role in the way people think (Northeast =

Democrats, South = Republicans)

Shifting Influences on Political Socialization● Major Political Events - Great Depression, World Wars,

Political Assassinations● Globalization - Increasingly interactive world economy● Generational Effects -

○ Hypothesis that most persons forge political attitudes between ages 14 and 24.

○ Political and personal events occurring at age 18 3x as likely to impact voting preferences

Measuring Public OpinionTypes of polls

● Benchmark polls - gather info about views and concerns● Tracking polls - ask people same questions over time to

“track” the path of public opinion● Entrance/ Exit polls - outside polling place on Election Day

to predict outcome● Focus Groups - 10-40 people discuss issues (Less

scientific)

Poll Methodology● Take great pains to ensure legitimacy

○ Phrase survey questions to not skew results○ Must obtain a random sample (random digit dialing)○ Afterward, review to see if demographics are

reflective of “universe” (If more women than men, some women removed)

Evaluating Claims on Public Opinion Data● Influence on Elections

○ Bandwagon effect - shift to support a candidate holding a lead in a poll

○ “Horserace” news coverage ● Influence on Policy Debate

○ Legislative Branch sometimes responsive to public opinion○ Prez use “bully pulpit” to influence opinion○ Judicial Branch somewhat influence (Liberal nation leads

to liberal court)

Reliability of Opinion DataSeveral factors can lessen effectiveness of Polls

● Social-Desirability Bias○ Voters tell polls what they think polls wants to hear

● Late decisions by undecided voters● Less people willing to take part in polls● Social Media can be used but not everyone is on social

media which leads to bias

Democratic Platform 2016● Health Care for the poor - Fight for Affordable Care Act● Equal rights for women ● Equality for sexual orientation - Sex discrimination law to

cover LGBT● Immigration - Fix broken system● Climate Change - Running country on clean energy● Abortion - Women should have access to quality

reproductive health care services

Republican Platform 2016● Poverty and Welfare - Compassion of work requirements

(opportunity over hand outs)● Death Penalty - States should have right to enact Capital

punishment● Marriage - Cornerstone is union of one man and one woman● Immigration - Secure borders and all ports of entry● Gun control - Defend right to bear arms● Abortion - Oppose use of public funds to promote or perform

abortion

Political Ideologies and the Marketplace

● Keynesian Economics - Government should create right level of demand○ When people aren’t saving $- reduce

taxes and more Gov’t spending○ When people are saving $ - tax more

and spend less●

● Supply-Side Theory - Leave as much $ as possible with the people○ People will have more $ and will

spend it○ Conservative approach (Long

supported by Reagan)

Ideology on Revenue and Spending● Congress granted power to tax people’s income with

16th Amendment (1913)● Current income tax is Progressive - the more $ you

make the more $ you are taxed by the Gov’t○ Highest during WWII (Highest bracket paid 94% of

income)○ Currently highest bracket pays around 37%

● Some Conservatives argue for flat tax - all citizens at same rate

Ideologies on Monetary Policy● How Gov’t manages the supply and demand of its

currency● The Federal Reserve Board “The Fed” created in 1913 to

manage money supply○ Sets terms for US bonds and Treasury bill○ Can raise and lower the discount rate

● Conservatives favor “easy money” - Lower interest rates to allow banks to loan more

● Liberals argue that it has not had desired effect

Ideologies on Trade● Conservatives, business communities favor free trade

and lifting of barriers● Laborers fear American companies would send their

labor requirements overseas which some have done

Ideologies on Social Issues● Social Safety Net

○ Liberal view of Gov’t should provide for people in need and pay for it with taxes

○ Conservatives favor lowering taxes and supporting free market● Privacy

○ Conservatives believe if states pass laws in areas of privacy Fed gov’t does not have authority to overrule

○ Liberals agree with idea of right to privacy (Roe v. Wade)● Religion

○ Conservatives opposed to government interference in practice of religious beliefs (ex. Refusing service to gay couple)

a.Describe the cartoonb.Identify any symbols used in the cartoon and explain each

symbolc.Identify the policy area/proposal that the cartoon is

referencingd.Identify the conservative position on that policy/proposal

e.Identify the liberal position on that policy/proposalf.Describe the cartoonist’s message

g.Explain which ideology the cartoonist is more favorable to and your reasoning