Currency Highlights SPOT Close Prv. Close Change %...

Currency Highlights

15th

Jan-2019

SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

The U.S. dollar was little changed, while the Chinese yuan slipped after data showed the country’s exports shrank the most in 2 years in December.

The outlook for relative central bank policy has reached its climax in terms of offering the U.S. dollar support, and widening fiscal and current account deficits are expected to deliver medium-term weakness in the currency,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, at Scotia bank in Toronto.

The Australian dollar and kiwi dollar, gauges of global risk appetite, fell on Monday on fears of a slowdown in China’s economy prompt-ed by a contraction in Chinese exports.

Euro zone industrial output posted in November its biggest fall in nearly three years, data showed on Monday, stoking concerns about the currency bloc's economic growth in the final quarter of 2018 and casting doubt over the timing of the next rate hike.

China published a five-year blueprint on Friday seeking economic and financial integration between southern Guangxi province and Southeast Asia, representing Beijing's latest effort to promote in-ternational use of the yuan currency.

SPOT Close Prv. Close Change % Change

USDINR 70.805 70.499 0.31 0.43

EURINR 81.320 81.267 0.05 0.07

GBPINR 91.257 90.344 0.91 1.01

JPYINR 65.610 65.090 0.52 0.80

DXY 95.205 94.887 0.32 0.34

Cross Currency Close Prv. Close Change % Change

EURUSD 1.1463 1.1528 -0.006 -0.56

GBPUSD 1.2865 1.2817 0.005 0.37

USDJPY 108.08 108.28 -0.200 -0.18

EURGBP 0.8910 0.8993 -0.008 -0.92

AUDUSD 0.7195 0.7220 -0.002 -0.35

RBI Reference Rate 14/01/2019 11/01/2019

USD 70.82 70.47

GBP 90.96 89.91

EUR 81.24 81.20

JPY 65.50 65.03

Interest Rate Future

(Underlying)

Price Yield

684GS2022 101.7200 7.2555

768GS2023 95.6500 7.4991

697GS2026 98.3100 7.4309

679GS2027 100.2500 7.2244

Global IndicesHome

CurrencyClose

Previous

CloseChange % Change

Nifty INR 10737.60 10794.95 -57.35 -0.53

Dow Jones USD 23909.84 23995.95 -86.11 -0.36

DAX EUR 10855.91 10887.46 -31.55 -0.29

FTSE 100 GBP 6855.02 6918.18 -63.16 -0.91

NIKKEI JPY 20544.64 20359.70 184.94 0.91

Technical View:

JPYINR has increased by 0.5% during the Monday trades and

settled above the prior week close.

On the daily chart, pair has shifted above 61.8% Retrace-

ment Level and also taken a support of rising trend line ,

which point out bullish move in the prices.

Moreover, pair has settled above 21 DEMA on the daily

chart.

Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has

shown positive crossover on the daily chart.

So based on the above technical aspects, we expect bullish

movement in JPYINR (Jan) towards 66.20 level.

Pivot levels for the Day

Technical View:

USDINR has extended the gain by 0.6% on Monday session.

On the daily chart, pair has shown positive strength and test-

ed a upper line of Falling wedge pattern.

On a weekly time frame, pair has formed Bullish Engulfing

candlestick patterns and sustained above 200 DEMA, which

is supporting a bullish trend.

Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is at 54.22

with positive crossover on the daily chart.

So based on the above analysis, we expect bullish movement

in USDINR (Jan) towards 71.40 level.

Currency Highlights

15th

Jan-2019

USDINR

SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

JPYINR

S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

USDINR 69.82 70.34 70.69 70.86 71.21 71.38 71.90

JPYINR 64.51 65.07 65.44 65.63 66.00 66.19 66.75

Pivot levels for the Day

Currency Highlights

15th

Jan-2019

GBPINR EURINR

Technical View:

EURINR has shown negative opening in early trades on Mon-

day but after that pair has recovered and ended the session

on positive note.

On the daily chart, pair has given falling trend line breakout

and sustained above it, which suggest bullishness in the pric-

es.

In addition, pair has moved above 21 DEMA on a daily chart,

which indicates more upside in the prices.

Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has

shown positive crossover on the daily chart.

So based on the above studies, we expect bullish movement

in EURINR (Jan) future towards 81.90 level.

Technical View:

GBPINR has started a week on positive note and settled

above 91 level.

On the daily chart, pair has given trend line breakdown and

sustained near the upper band of Bollinger formation.

It additions, pair has sustained above 21 days DEMA on the

daily chart.

Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has

shifted into positive zone with positive crossover.

Hence, we expect bullish movement in GBPINR (Jan) to-

wards 91.70 level.

SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

EURINR 80.26 80.81 81.18 81.36 81.73 81.91 82.46

GBPINR 89.35 90.19 90.70 91.03 91.54 91.87 97.88

Currency Highlights

SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

15th

Jan-2019

Economic Indicators

Time Currency Data Prior Expected Impact

03:30PM EUR Trade Balance 12.5B 13.2B ‘Actual’ greater than

‘Forecast’ is good for currency

07:00PM USD PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1% ‘Actual’ greater than

‘Forecast’ is good for currency

07:00PM USD Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% ‘Actual’ greater than

‘Forecast’ is good for currency

08:30PM EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

11:30PM EUR FOMC Member George Speaks

Currency Highlights

SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

Kkunal Parar

Sr. Research Associate

Kkunal.parar@choiceindia.com

Sunil Rokade

Research Associate

Sunil.rokade@choiceindia.com

Sachin Gupta

Research Analyst

sachin.gupta@choiceindia.com

Neeraj Dubey

Research Advisor

neeraj.dubey@choiceindia.com

15th

Jan-2019