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IEA©OECD/IEA2017
Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations
Dave Turk, Director (Acting) of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks16 November 2017 – COP23, IETA Pavilion
©OECD/IEA2017
Introduction
• Acceleratingtechnologicalprogressstrengthenseconomies,energysecurityandsustainability
• PoliciesandRD&Ddrivedowncostsandimproveperformance
• Cleanenergytechnologiesareprogressing,butfewontrack
• Needtofocusonall technologies;lackofprogressonsomeputsevenmorepressureonothers
• IEA’snewworkondigitalizationandenergybringsnewinsightsinunderstandingtheroleoftechnologiesandinnovation
©OECD/IEA2017
Key points of orientation
• GlobalenergymarketsarechangingrapidlyØRenewablessuppliedhalfofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthin2016,andincreaseinnuclearcapacityreachedhighestlevelsince1993
ØGlobalenergyintensityimprovedby2.1%in2016
ØElectriccarsaleswereup40%in2016,anewrecordyear
• TheenergysectorremainskeytosustainableeconomicgrowthØ1.2Bpeoplelackaccesstoelectricity;2.7Bpeoplelackaccesstocleancooking
ØLargestsourceofGHGemissionstoday,aroundtwo-thirdsofglobaltotal
ØLargestsourceofairpollution,linkedto6.5millionprematuredeathsperyear
• ThereisnosinglestoryaboutthefutureofglobalenergyØFast-pacedtechnologicalprogressandchangingenergybusinessmodels
©OECD/IEA2017
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?
IEAanalysisshowsthatglobalCO2 emissionsremainedflatin2016forthethirdyearinarow,eventhoughtheglobaleconomygrew,ledbyemissiondeclinesintheUSandChina.
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016
Gt
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
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2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
Efficiency40%
Renewables35%
Fuelswitching5%
Nuclear6%
CCS14%
How far can technology take us?
Pushingenergytechnologytoachievecarbonneutralityby2060couldmeetthemid-pointoftherangeofambitionsexpressedinParis.
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Efficiency40%
Renewables35%Fuelswitching5%Nuclear6%
CCS14%
Efficiency34%
Renewables15%
Fuelswitching18%
Nuclear1%
CCS32%
GlobalCO2 reductionsbytechnologyarea
2degreesScenario– 2DS
ReferenceTechnologyScenario– RTS
Beyond2degreesScenario– B2DS
0 200 400
GtCO2 cumulativereductionsin2060
©OECD/IEA2017
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised
Recentprogressinsomecleanenergyareasispromising,butmanytechnologiesstillneedastrongpushtoachievetheirfullpotentialanddeliverasustainableenergyfuture.
EnergystorageSolarPVandonshorewind
Buildingconstruction
NuclearTransport– Fueleconomyoflight-dutyvehicles
Lighting,appliancesandbuildingequipment
Electricvehicles
Energy-intensiveindustrialprocesses
Transportbiofuels
CarboncaptureandstorageMoreefficientcoal-firedpower
●Notontrack
●Acceleratedimprovementneeded
●Ontrack
©OECD/IEA2017
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
Weneedtomoveawayfromaone-directionalenergydeliveryphilosophy
©OECD/IEA2017
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energysystem control
Distributedenergy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle2
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
Weneedtomoveawayfromaone-directionalenergydeliveryphilosophytoa digitally-enhanced,multidirectionalandintegratedsystemthatrequireslong-termplanningforservicesdelivery.
©OECD/IEA2017
The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions
Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW)
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2016 2020 2025
GW
non-PHSStorage PumpedHydropowerStorage
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1.0
1.5
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3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2014 2016
GW
Globally installed electricity storage (GW)
Positivemarketandpolicytrendssupportedayear-on-yeargrowthofover50%fornon-pumpedhydrostorageButnear-termstorageneedswillremainlargelyansweredbyexistingorplannedpumpedhydrocapacity.
©OECD/IEA2017
Can we change the landscape of transport ?
Thetransportationsectoralreadyexperiencestechnologicalchange,butwon’tsheditsoildependencywithoutassertivepolicies.
Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenariosHeavy-DutyVehicles(millions)Light-dutyVehicles(millions)
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2015 RTS- 2060 B2DS- 20600
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2015 RTS- 2060 B2DS- 2060
©OECD/IEA2017
Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility
Efficiencytechnologiescanprovidethesamelevelofcomfortwhilereducingenergydemanddespitedoublingfloorarea.
112EJ157EJ123EJ
2014(123EJ)
RTS2060(157EJ)
B2DS2060(112EJ)
31% 54% 61%Electricity ElectricityElectricity
37%
24%
3%
5%
Electricity31%
Fossilfuels Traditionalbiomass Renewables Other Electricity
Energyuseinthebuildingssectorunderdifferentscenarios
©OECD/IEA2017
We need to produce materials more sustainably
Effectivepoliciesandpublic-privatecollaborationareneededtoenableanextensiveroll-outofenergyandmaterialefficiencystrategiesaswellasasuiteofinnovativetechnologies.
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2014 2030 2060 2030 2060
RTS B2DS
GtCO2
EJ
Otherindustries
Pulpandpaper
Aluminium
Chemicalsandpetrochemicals
Cement
Ironandsteel
DirectCO2emissions
EnergyuseanddirectCO2 emissionsinvariousindustrialsectorsunderdifferentscenarios
©OECD/IEA2017
CCSishappeningtoday,CCSishappeningtoday,butneedstoberampeduphundredsoftimestoachievelong-termgoals.TheroleforCCSvariesbasedonlocalcircumstances.
A challenging task ahead for CCS
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12000
2030 2060 2030 2060
Today 2DS B2DS
MtC
O₂
Restofworld
EU
IND
CHN
MEA
USA
AmountofCO2 capturedundervariousscenarios
0
20
40
Today
MtC
O₂
©OECD/IEA2017
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30
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2012 2015
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top3firms
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30
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2012 2015
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top3firms
Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost
GlobalRD&Dspendinginefficiency,renewables,nuclearandCCSplateauedat$26billionannually,comingmostlyfromgovernments.
GlobalcleanenergyRD&Dspending
0
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30
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2012 2021
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top3firms
MissionInnovationMission
Innovation
Top3ITcompanyR&Dspenders
GlobalRD&Dspendinginefficiency,renewables,nuclearandCCSplateauedat$26billionannually,comingmostlyfromgovernments.
MissionInnovationcouldprovideamuchneededboost.
©OECD/IEA2017
Conclusions of the ETP 2017
• Earlysignspointtochangesinenergytrajectories,helpedbypoliciesandtechnologies,butprogressistooslow
• Anintegratedsystemsapproachconsideringalltechnologyoptionsmustbeimplementednowtoaccelerateprogress
• Eachcountryshoulddefineitsowntransitionpathandscale-upitsRD&Danddeploymentsupportaccordingly
• Achievingcarbonneutralityby2060wouldrequireunprecedentedtechnologypoliciesandinvestments
• Innovationcandeliver,butpoliciesmustconsiderthefulltechnologycycle,andcollaborativeapproachescanhelp
©OECD/IEA2017
www.iea.orgIEA www.iea.org/statistics
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