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Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies
Andreu Ulied, MCRITESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner
ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle
• What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation?
• Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050?
• How European Cohesion policy should be reformed?
Questions to be discussed:
• Politecnico Milano: modelling 2010-2030 Baseline Scenario with MASST3 model
• S&W modelling 2010-2050 Exploratory Scenarios with SASI model
• Reference World Scenario by MCRIT
Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results...
The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?
GDP Growth 2008-2030 by MASST3
GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)
Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030
GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies
Total Employment Change 2010-2030
Population Change 2010-2030 (due to Labour Migration...)
Ageing 2010-2030
The Crisis Aftermath... + Global Openness?
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)
EUROSTAT
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain Trade in M€
export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27
Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)
-40.000
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)
Japan Offshore financial centers
Russia United States
Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)
France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany
Spain UK
Germany
UK
France
Foreign Investments of EU companies
EUROSTAT
The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?
Source : DREWRY, 2008
America Asia
13,3 MTEU
6,7 MTEU
20 MTEU
2,2 MTEU
2,2 MTEU4,4 MTEU
13,3 MTEU
5,1 MTEU
18,4 MTEU
Europe
World maritime container traffic. 2008*
Top 10 ports 2009
Evolution of Global Accessibility 2010-2030
Evolution of European Accessibility 2010-2030
1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe…
2) Increasing Regional Gaps…
3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities...
4) More Labour Mobility in Europe…
5) Global Reorientation of European Economies… 6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…
Key Baseline Conclusions...
1. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?
2. Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050?
3. How European Cohesion policies could be reformed?
Second Question...
Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050
Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios
Framework conditions
Baseline
1Economic
decline
2Technicaladvance
3Energy/Climateimpacts
Promotion of metropolitan areas A A1 A2 A3
Promotion of large European cities B B1 B2 B3
Promotion of peripheral regions and medium cities
C C1 C2 C3
Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050
Values for 2051
Framework conditions and policies
BaselineScenario
1Economic
decline
2Technicaladvance
3Energy/climate
Population (mio) 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7
GDP (mio € of 2010) 22,800*
GDP 2013-2051 (% p.a.) +1.5*
GDP/worker (€ of 2010) 99,300* 99,300* 144,000*
EU Subsidies (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Fuel price/litre (€ of 2010) 3.20 3.20 3.20 10.20
Values for 2051
Framework conditions and policies
BaselineScenario
1Economic
decline
2Technicaladvance
3Energy/climate
Population (mio) 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7
GDP (mio € of 2010) 22,800*
GDP 2013-2051 (% p.a.) +1.5*
GDP/worker (€ of 2010) 99,300* 99,300* 144,000*
EU Subsidies (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Fuel price/litre (€ of 2010) 3.20 3.20 3.20 10.20
ET2050 scenario variants: main assumptions
* plus generative effects
Cohesion and Structural Funds 2000-06 / 2050
GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)
Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050?
Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051
2007 Crisis
Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?
National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051
Polycentrism
C2A3
Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?
Policy Evaluation
28Sustainability indicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions)
Scenario
Competitiveness Cohesion Sustainability
GDP/capita(€ of 2010)
2051
Change inGDP/capita2013-2051
% p.a.
Coefficientof variationGDP/capita
2051
Nationalpoly-
centricity2051
Energy use2051
CO2emis-sions 2051
Baseline 42,897 +1.371 50.5 65.1
A A1A2A3
44,00031,76653,55442,136
+1.439+0.573+1.965+1.323
54.754.650.956.0
62.162.162.163.4
BB1B2B3
43,46731,38252,92141,701
+1.406+0.541+1.933+1.296
50.950.747.252.1
65.265.265.365.9
CC1C2C3
43,08331,10552,43641,385
+1.383+0.517+1.908+1.275
50.350.146,551.5
65.765.765.866.4
Scenario
Competitiveness Cohesion Sustainability
GDP/capita(€ of 2010)
2051
Change inGDP/capita2013-2051
% p.a.
Coefficientof variationGDP/capita
2051
Nationalpoly-
centricity2051
Energy use2051
CO2emis-sions 2051
Baseline 42,897 +1.371 50.5 65.1
A A1A2A3
44,00031,76653,55442,136
+1.439+0.573+1.965+1.323
54.754.650.956.0
62.162.162.163.4
BB1B2B3
43,46731,38252,92141,701
+1.406+0.541+1.933+1.296
50.950.747.252.1
65.265.265.365.9
CC1C2C3
43,08331,10552,43641,385
+1.383+0.517+1.908+1.275
50.350.146,551.5
65.765.765.866.4
C2
B2
A2
According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004:
"It is a different country now. That's thanks to European contributions"
How Cohesion polices could be reformed?
• + Sensitivity to economic cycles?
• + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment?
• + Place-based focus towards endogenous development?
• + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment?
• + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas?
• + Investments to Neighboring Countries?
How Cohesion polices may be reformed?
“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
Further information:ulied@mcrit.com
www.et2050.eu (working documents)
www.espon.eu
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