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GIS Assistance in Choosing Locations for New Sports Teams
Goals
To examine the layout of current stadiums for the big four sports:
MLB: Major League BaseballNBA: National Basketball AssociationNFL: National Football LeagueNHL: National Hockey League
To use GIS to choose locations for new teams in case of league expansion
Data Collection
Google Earth used to locate latitude/longitude pairs for stadiumsESRI provided shapefiles of Census tracts (by state) and demographic data for each tractESRI data had to be joined and appended, and tract identifier numbers had to be reformattedCensus Bureau Summary File 3 data for per capita income for all Census tracts
“Geo within geo” tool was helpful but downloading data was still very repetitive and time consuming
Game Plan
Each Census tract was joined to a sports team based on the shortest distance from an edge of the tract to the stadiumSome sports teams share stadiums; in that case, the teams were combined into one entity
e.g., Clippers and Lakers, Jets and Giants
Calculations
To properly assess the value of a given sports franchise, several data points were calculated:
Total populationTotal annual wealth of populationPer capita income of populationAverage distance of population from stadiumAverage distance of wealth from stadiumMaximum distance in population group from stadiumPercentage of fans in the same state as the stadium
Projection
Equidistant projection used for accuracy of distance calculations:
Map Projection Name: Equidistant ConicStandard Parallel: 33.000000Standard Parallel: 45.000000Longitude of Central Meridian: -96.000000Latitude of Projection Origin: 39.000000
Scope of Data
Calculations made only with contiguous U.S. dataAlaska and Hawaii radically throw off distance calculations
Maximum Distance from Census Tract to Closest Stadium
AT&T Park(San Francisco Giants)
Safeco Field (Seattle Mariners)
All 50 States 5,060 km 5,223 km
Lower 48 States 535 km 998 km
Conic Projection of MLB Stadiums
Fan Base Maps: MLB
Fan Base Maps: NBA
Fan Base Maps: NFL
Fan Base Maps: NHL
Calculation Caveats
Assumption that people in any given Census tract will root for the team located closest to that tract is not always true
e.g., during Michael Jordan’s reign, Chicago Bulls fans were found all over the U.S., not just near ChicagoSometimes driving distances are much greater than “as the crow flies” distance calculations
Cities with multiple teamsMissing information about Canada
MLB Map Detail
Calculations
Data available:2000 Census population for tracts2000 Census per capita income for tracts
Total money = population * per capita incomePopulation distance = sum (population * distance) / total populationTotal money distance = sum (total money * distance) / total money
Sample Calculations Table: MLB
MLB TeamTotal
Population Total Money
Average Per Capita Income
Farthest Distance
From Stadium (km)
Average Person
Distance From
Stadium
Average Total Money
Distance From
StadiumIn State
Population
Percentage Fans In Same
State As Stadium
Arizona Diamondbacks 6,755,350 $127,204,754,367 $18,830 721 192 157 5,011,691 74%Atlanta Braves 25,995,537 $508,376,181,931 $19,556 590 256 245 8,099,355 31%
Baltimore Orioles 4,723,769 $106,742,991,466 $22,597 222 56 53 2,880,979 61%Boston Red Sox 11,939,213 $286,672,227,674 $24,011 586 99 87 6,330,312 53%Chicago Cubs 5,565,214 $148,939,607,899 $26,763 326 56 49 4,795,508 86%
Chicago White Sox 7,584,856 $154,301,947,438 $20,343 322 84 84 5,108,153 67%Cincinnati Reds 13,232,301 $264,392,805,854 $19,981 412 149 141 4,915,002 37%
Cleveland Indians 5,089,649 $106,378,854,735 $20,901 199 62 59 4,759,106 94%Colorado Rockies 9,126,678 $192,273,183,405 $21,067 988 320 282 4,336,259 48%
Detroit Tigers 8,784,562 $198,001,439,700 $22,540 472 80 75 7,546,365 86%Florida Marlins 5,944,648 $136,169,165,365 $22,906 245 51 56 5,944,648 100%Houston Astros 15,564,655 $286,097,494,296 $18,381 584 251 227 10,930,338 70%
Kansas City Royals 9,148,079 $179,738,754,094 $19,648 475 215 208 2,566,161 28%Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 8,684,600 $187,861,105,242 $21,632 372 87 86 7,344,268 85%
Los Angeles Dodgers 10,701,076 $219,881,514,110 $20,548 641 53 50 10,658,263 100%Milwaukee Brewers 6,758,779 $143,866,667,686 $21,286 439 131 126 4,462,456 66%
Minnesota Twins 8,168,291 $173,125,169,058 $21,195 985 178 153 4,921,714 60%New York Mets 9,996,797 $232,797,704,587 $23,287 154 32 36 8,067,569 81%
New York Yankees 13,579,732 $375,646,976,880 $27,662 320 67 58 6,565,009 48%Oakland Athletics 10,444,991 $255,974,248,503 $24,507 792 111 95 9,850,855 94%
Philadelphia Phillies 9,246,628 $213,820,163,973 $23,124 258 53 51 5,960,763 64%Pittsburgh Pirates 5,674,791 $103,962,790,397 $18,320 381 86 78 3,750,947 66%San Diego Padres 3,225,726 $71,493,831,507 $22,164 239 44 39 3,101,090 96%
San Francisco Giants 3,365,374 $90,607,521,321 $26,923 535 123 88 3,042,654 90%Seattle Mariners 10,489,074 $228,284,460,709 $21,764 998 236 210 5,917,958 56%
St. Louis Cardinals 9,515,368 $181,135,204,659 $19,036 580 208 196 3,029,050 32%Tampa Bay Devil Rays 9,405,365 $196,723,047,140 $20,916 407 147 143 9,293,930 99%
Texas Rangers 13,122,372 $256,435,467,044 $19,542 724 198 175 9,231,606 70%Toronto Blue Jays 3,916,258 $77,182,936,645 $19,708 400 171 169
Washington Nationals 14,595,239 $346,162,648,029 $23,718 560 210 182 572,059 4%
Calculation: Furthest Tract
Calculation of how far the fan base spreads
Shortest Extent Longest Extent
MLB154 km
New York Mets998 km
Seattle Mariners
NBA160 km
New York Knicks983 km
Minnesota Timberwolves
NFL188 km
Cleveland Browns998 km
Seattle Seahawks
NHL89 km
New York Rangers858 km
Colorado Avalanche
MLB Extents
MLB Extents (Detail)(Note gap in Montana Census tracts)
Calculation: In-State Fan Base (1)
Percentage of fans who are part of a fan base that live in the same state as the stadiumSeveral problems with this calculation, e.g.:
Some New York teams play in New JerseyCount Washington, DC as a state?Missing Canada data
Calculation: In-State Fan Base (2)
Not counting Washington, DC teams:
Smallest Percent Largest Percent
MLB28%
Kansas City Royals
100%Florida Marlins
Los Angeles Dodgers
NBA22%
Memphis Grizzlies
100%Golden State Warriors
Miami Heat
NFL26%
New York Giants & Jets
100%Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NHL41%
Nashville Predators
100%Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
MLB In-State Fan Base
MLB In-StateFan Base (Detail)
Calculation: Total Population
Total population indicates the size of a team’s potential fan baseExcluding Canadian teams and halving population totals for teams that share a stadium:
Smallest Population Largest Population
MLB3,225,726
San Diego Padres25,995,537
Atlanta Braves
NBA3,945,409Utah Jazz
14,466,653Charlotte Bobcats
NFL2,445,948
San Francisco 49ers20,432,544
San Diego Chargers
NHL4,241,939
Buffalo Sabres29,111,328Dallas Stars
NBA Total Population
Calculation: Total Money
Total money indicates the wealth of a team’s potential fan baseRanks match those of total population except for the NFL
San Francisco 49ers have the highest per capita income in the league ($32,610), so despite having the smallest fan base, they are ranked third from the bottom in total wealth (in front of the Green Bay Packers and the Jacksonville Jaguars)
NBA Total Money
Calculation: Populationand Total Money Distances
The difference between the average distance of a fan to the stadium and the average distance of wealth to the stadium indicates how wealth is distributed around the stadium’s host city
Per Capita Income by Census Tract
Denver Broncos (NFL)Population distance: 326 km
Wealth distance: 287 km
Synthesizing the Data (1)
A useful map combines all sports teams of the four major leagues and shows how close Census tracts are to any teamGives a geographic sense of what areas of the country are lacking representative teams
Census Tract Distance to Major Sports Teams(Darker Green Indicates Further Distance)
Least Representative Census TractTract 380539624 (population 1,589) is the furthest from any sports team,
Watford City, ND is 828 km from the Minnesota Timberwolves
Synthesizing the Data (2)
One way to locate where a new stadium should be located (for the NFL):
Plot all major cities and towns and then remove those that are within 100 km of a current stadium100 km is an arbitrary number but stadiums should not be placed too close together (though the Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens play 46 km from each other)
U.S. Cities with 100 km NFL Stadium Radii Removed
Synthesizing the Data (3)
Create 40 km buffers around each city pointCalculate the total population within the buffer40 km is an arbitrary number but could serve as the size of a city large enough to host a sports team
U.S. City 40 km Buffers
Synthesizing the Data (4)
By plotting only buffers that meet a given criterion, possible locations for a sports team can be determined
Metropolitan Areas with a Population Greater than 500,000 without an NFL Team
Metropolitan Areas with a Population Greater than 1,000,000 without an NFL Team
Los Angeles
Portland
Milwaukee
San Antonio
Columbus
Virginia Beach
Final Analysis for Metropolitan Areas with a Population Over 1,000,000
A table with statistics shows that Los Angeles is easily the best choice for a new football team
Further analysis could plot how fan base distributions change with the addition of a team to Los Angeles or other cities
Prospective City Current Fan Base Current Fan Base SizeCurrent Fan Base
Wealth Average Fan DistancePortland Seattle 10,489,074 $228,284,460,709 236
Los Angeles San Diego 20,432,544 $436,316,875,283 150San Antonio Houston 11,442,873 $217,682,640,419 178Milwaukee Chicago 15,765,013 $361,374,421,990 89Columbus Cincinnati 8,637,158 $176,420,638,753 117
Virginia Beach Washington 9,362,763 $241,669,842,381 108
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