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Daimler Trucks - Powertrain Engineering, Nafta
Heavy-Duty Powertrain and Vehicle Development A Look Toward 2020
Detroit, October 4, 2011 Mark Groeneweg
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3
The Age of Criteria Pollutant Emissions Reduction (past)
NOx [g/ hp-hr]
PM [g
/hp-
hr]
0.60 1988
10.7
1990
6.0
0.25 1991
5.0
0.10 1994 1998
4.0
2004
2.0 0.01
2007
1.2 0.2
2010
4
What will the future look like?
There is the prediction of possibilit ies …..
Next winner of the Super Bowl
Winning lottery numbers
Precise timing and extent of market behavior
But ….. this is not the way Engineers work….
7
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices
Forecast
1.30
1.80
2.30
2.80
3.30
3.80
4.30
4.80
Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 20120.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
dollars per gallon
Retail Diesel Fuel
Crude Oil
dollars per gallon
What else do we know for sure? Certainty of “linear” change
Fuel price increase
Environmental requirements
Globalization
Progress in information technology and electronics
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Auxiliary Loads
4% Drivetrain
2% Rolling Resistance
13%
Aerodynamic Drag 21%
Charge Air Cooler 10%
Engine Coolant 12%
EGR Cooler 8%
Ambient and Residual
5%
Exhaust 25%
Real World Fuel Efficiency Improvement – Systems Viewpoint
1st law energy balance
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Comprehensive System Development Example: Super Truck Program
Thema
Engine Right-sizing & Hybrid
Parasitic Losses
Energy Management
Powertrain Integration
Engine & ATS
Waste heat Recovery
Aerodynamics Weight Reduction
50% Improvement
In Freight Efficiency
Predictive Technologies
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Competition for talent continues…..
Global workforce is a fact….
Innovative workplaces produce innovation……
Nurturing interest in science and math is required….
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In Summary… • “Linear” change will define certain aspects of the
future
• Advances in technology are a certainty – today’s trends in technology make the future visible
• Globalization in emissions regulation will be a driving force for real efficiency progress – if done correctly
• Freight efficiency improvements require not only engine advancements but also powertrain improvement, vehicle improvements and optimized system integration
• Exciting times continue for the commercial vehicle industry
• YOU are at the front line of technology development Our engineers are the ‘engine’ that will propel us into the future of commercial vehicles
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