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Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018. Deborah A. Santiago, PhD Excelencia in Education May 20, 2008. EASFAA Portland, Maine. What to look for?. -Shifting paradigm for higher education -higher education resistant to change Will you be resistant to change?. Sources. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Higher Education’s Crystal Ball: Preparing for 2018
EASFAAPortland, Maine
Deborah A. Santiago, PhD
Excelencia in Education
May 20, 2008
What to look for?
-Shifting paradigm for higher education
-higher education resistant to change
Will you be resistant to change?
Sources
-National Center for Education Statistics-Spellings Commission-The Futures Project-”Madame Deborah”
What does the future of higher education look like?
More diverse enrollment
66
13 116
1 3
61
14 137
1 3
White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander
AmericanIndian/
Alaska Native
Nonresidentalien
2005 2016
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
11
50
72
42
3429
8
29
45
32 34
15
White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacif ic Islander
American Indian/Alaska Native
Nonresidentalien
1995-2005 2006-2016
Enrollment of Hispanics will continue to grow faster
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
Enrollment of older students will grow faster than traditional
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
30.4
11.713.2
19.7
1995-2005 2006-2016
18 to 24 25 and over
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Men Women
Women continue to outpace men in undergraduate enrollment
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
More students going full-time
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
63 66
37 34
2005 2016
Full-time Part-time
Growth of private institutions will continue to outpace public institutions
18.113.9
40.3
17.5
% growth: 1995-2005 % growth: 2006-2016
Public Private
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
Continuation of growing reliance on loans to pay for college
50
33
25
1995 2004 2016
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): 2003-04 Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis
Percentage of UG using loans to pay for college
Increasing: - costs - public scrutiny- capacity limitations - market competition
Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), National Postsecondary Aid Study (NPSAS): 2003-04 Undergraduate Students; and unpublished analysis
Other changes to higher education’s future
What does the future hold for higher education?
Policy issues
• Access
• Affordability
• Accountability
• Market structure vs. public good
TENSION in trying to balance disparate areas!!
What does the future hold for access to higher education?
• More diverse student body for outreach and service
• Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice
• Who takes responsibility for increasing access?
Market structure: for-profit institutions see potential of enrolling Latinos and African American students
What does the future hold for accountability in higher education?
• More demand by politicians for proof of public return on investment while investing less
• Challenge to status quo and standard operating practice
• How balance access and accountability?
Market structure: raise admission standards to increase graduation rates and penalize institutions with low success rates
What does the future hold for affordability in higher education?
• Increasing costs and competition
• Complexity of financial aid system
• How balance access, accountability, and affordability?
Market structure: cost containment and increased productivity
What Excelencia will do to address the future of higher
education
• Ignorance abatement on Latinos in higher education (Research)
• Compendium of promising practices (Action)
• Demonstration projects to show how institutions can serve (Action)
What will YOU do to address the future of higher education?
www.EdExcelencia.org
For more information please visit:
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