Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events Roxana Bojariu Nationala...

Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme eventsIntegrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events

Roxana BojariuRoxana Bojariu

Nationala Meteorological AdministrationNationala Meteorological Administration

bojariu@meteoromania.robojariu@meteoromania.ro

OutlineOutline

Risk assessmentHeat waves in urban area Hail risk caseFollow up

Risk assessmentRisk assessment

1. Natural hazard assessment and mapping

2. Impact assesment and mapping

3. Combining (1) and (2) to get the risk assessment and mapping

Location of Arad and its districtsLocation of Arad and its districts

Observed heat waves at Arad meteorological station stationObserved heat waves at Arad meteorological station station

Number of consecutive days with Tmax >=35 C and Tmax >= 37 C

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9

10

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

tmax>=37°C

tmax>=35°C

Urban heat island case –natural hazard mappingUrban heat island case –natural hazard mapping

Urban heat island intensity in summer derived using daytime and nighttime LST averaged over summers of 2002-2010 from Aqua MODIS product with 1km resolution.

Urban heat island case – impact mappingUrban heat island case – impact mapping

Daytime abd nighttime impact maps derived using the number of paramedic interventions per districts in the summers 2009-2012. (Data from Inspectorate for Emergency Situations Vasile Goldis, Arad, Romania.

Urban heat island case – an example of risk mappingUrban heat island case – an example of risk mapping

SEERISK project risk mapping for disaster management community – no new science development but the framework to transfer of science to disaster management community. A risk map is now developed on qualitative base; our scientific aim is to develop a quantitative base for risk assessment of heat waves in urban areas.

Further steps for a quantitative assessment of heat wave risks in urban areas Further steps for a quantitative assessment of heat wave risks in urban areas Daytime LST and Tair for location of meteorological station in AradDaytime LST and Tair for location of meteorological station in Arad

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5

10

15

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25

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35

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45

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

The use of climate information in hail related risksThe use of climate information in hail related risks

Hail related requests for insurance

Frequencies of episodes withradar reflectivity greater than a threshold at Titu location.

Follow upFollow up

quantitative assessments of natural hazards related to climate variability and change;

best quantitative coupling with impact data to quantitatively assess the risks.