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Michael MEI
Alstom
2012
Introduction and experience sharing
of Phase I, II and III allocation plan
of EU ETS
轨道交通基础设施轨道交通基础设施轨道交通基础设施轨道交通基础设施 Rail transport infrastructure
四大主营业务在全球范围内位列行业前三甲
Alstom: Four main activities in top 3 in its main activities
•发电基础设施发电基础设施发电基础设施发电基础设施 Power generation infrastructure
阿尔斯通为全球发电总装机量的阿尔斯通为全球发电总装机量的阿尔斯通为全球发电总装机量的阿尔斯通为全球发电总装机量的25%提供主要设备提供主要设备提供主要设备提供主要设备
Alstom supplies major equipment for 25% of the worldwide Installed power generation capacity and….
全球每四辆地铁列车全球每四辆地铁列车全球每四辆地铁列车全球每四辆地铁列车/有轨电车中就有一辆由阿尔斯有轨电车中就有一辆由阿尔斯有轨电车中就有一辆由阿尔斯有轨电车中就有一辆由阿尔斯
通制造通制造通制造通制造
Alstom makes 1 metro in 4 and 1 tram in 4
输电基础设施输电基础设施输电基础设施输电基础设施 Power transmission infrastructure
在关键市场及技术方面表现强劲在关键市场及技术方面表现强劲在关键市场及技术方面表现强劲在关键市场及技术方面表现强劲（（（（隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关、、、、气体绝缘组合电器气体绝缘组合电器气体绝缘组合电器气体绝缘组合电器、、、、高压直流输高压直流输高压直流输高压直流输
电等电等电等电等））））
Leadership in key markets and fast-growing technologies (disconnectors, GIS, HVDC …)
占全球水电市场占全球水电市场占全球水电市场占全球水电市场25%的市场份额的市场份额的市场份额的市场份额
….it holds 25% of hydro electricity market
水电水电水电水电 Hydro燃气燃气燃气燃气 Gas
燃油燃油燃油燃油 Oil核能核能核能核能（（（（常规岛常规岛常规岛常规岛））））
Nuclear (Conv.Island)
风能风能风能风能 Wind
生物质生物质生物质生物质能能能能 Biomass太阳能太阳能太阳能太阳能 Solar
电厂全周期管理电厂全周期管理电厂全周期管理电厂全周期管理
Life Cycle
Management
地热能地热能地热能地热能 Geothermal
阿尔斯通电力：技术适用于所有能源形式
Alstom Power：Technologies adapted to all energysources
燃煤燃煤燃煤燃煤 Coal
燃气燃气燃气燃气Gas
燃油燃油燃油燃油Oil
燃煤燃煤燃煤燃煤 Coal
发电机发电机发电机发电机
Generators
仪表及监控设仪表及监控设仪表及监控设仪表及监控设
备备备备
Instrumentation and monitoring
水电水电水电水电
Hydro空气质量控制系空气质量控制系空气质量控制系空气质量控制系
统统统统Air quality control systems
锅炉锅炉锅炉锅炉
Boilers
轮机轮机轮机轮机（（（（汽轮机汽轮机汽轮机汽轮机，，，，蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机，，，，水水水水
轮机轮机轮机轮机））））
Turbine (gas, steam, hydro)
风电风电风电风电
Wind
电力：最全面的产品线
Alstom Power：The largest portfolio for integrated power solutions
0 500 1000 1500
CFB* Supercritical
循环硫化床锅炉循环硫化床锅炉循环硫化床锅炉循环硫化床锅炉，，，，超临界超临界超临界超临界 400 - 600 MW
Oil-fired
燃油电厂燃油电厂燃油电厂燃油电厂
400 - 700 MW
CFB* Subcritical
循环硫化床循环硫化床循环硫化床循环硫化床，，，，亚临亚临亚临亚临
界界界界
100 - 400 MW
PC* Subcritical
煤粉炉煤粉炉煤粉炉煤粉炉，，，，亚临界亚临界亚临界亚临界 300 - 800 MW
400-1200 MWPC* Supercritical
煤粉炉煤粉炉煤粉炉煤粉炉，，，，超临界超临界超临界超临界
Coal-fired power plant 燃煤电厂煤Coal 锅炉Boiler 汽轮机和发电机Steam turbine
and Turbogenerator除尘Dust collector
燃烧系统 Combustion system 脱硫 Desulphurisationsystem
脱硝Denitrification system
Shoaiba I, II & III, 14 x 400 MW, Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯项目沙特阿拉伯项目沙特阿拉伯项目沙特阿拉伯项目（（（（共三共三共三共三
期期期期））））
* PC: Pulverized Coal** CFB: Circulating Fluidized Bed
MW
火力发电的性能不断得以提升
Continuous performance improvements - Steam power plants
余热锅炉余热锅炉余热锅炉余热锅炉 HRSG
燃气轮机燃气轮机燃气轮机燃气轮机 Gas Turbine
控制系统控制系统控制系统控制系统 Control Systems
汽轮发电机汽轮发电机汽轮发电机汽轮发电机
Turbogenerator
蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机蒸汽轮机Steam Turbine
通过优化汽轮机的设计通过优化汽轮机的设计通过优化汽轮机的设计通过优化汽轮机的设计，，，，可以提高出力并减少排放可以提高出力并减少排放可以提高出力并减少排放可以提高出力并减少排放
Advanced turbine design concepts to increase efficiency and reduce emissions51 x GT24, 86 x GT26 ordered, >4.0 Mio. fired hours with >70’000 starts
联合循环电厂的性能不断得以提升
Continuous performance improvements - Combined cycle plants
•现有电厂的经验总结现有电厂的经验总结现有电厂的经验总结现有电厂的经验总结 Fleet Experience
�From “Daily starts and stops” to “base load” operation• 从每天的开机停机从每天的开机停机从每天的开机停机从每天的开机停机，，，，到最低负荷运转到最低负荷运转到最低负荷运转到最低负荷运转
�Natural gas (also high inert/C2+), oil with online switch-over• 天然气天然气天然气天然气、、、、燃油两种不同燃料可以实现在开机状态下燃油两种不同燃料可以实现在开机状态下燃油两种不同燃料可以实现在开机状态下燃油两种不同燃料可以实现在开机状态下
的转换的转换的转换的转换
�Power Augmentation (Air Inlet cooling)• 增加电厂出力增加电厂出力增加电厂出力增加电厂出力(空冷空冷空冷空冷））））
GT26
GT24
GT13E2
GT11N250 Hz 60 Hz60 & 50
Hz
296 MW
194 MW
185 MW
115 MW
碳捕集与封存技术必须运用到现有电厂中碳捕集与封存技术必须运用到现有电厂中碳捕集与封存技术必须运用到现有电厂中碳捕集与封存技术必须运用到现有电厂中
CCS can also be applied to the installed base
Source: Vattenfall
Pre-combustion 燃烧前捕集燃烧前捕集燃烧前捕集燃烧前捕集
(New only) 只适用于新建电厂
装有二氧化碳捕集与封存设备的电厂装有二氧化碳捕集与封存设备的电厂装有二氧化碳捕集与封存设备的电厂装有二氧化碳捕集与封存设备的电厂
Power Plant with CO2 capture
阿尔斯通目前专注的两种技术阿尔斯通目前专注的两种技术阿尔斯通目前专注的两种技术阿尔斯通目前专注的两种技术 Solutions developed by Alstom
Post-combustion 燃烧后捕集燃烧后捕集燃烧后捕集燃烧后捕集 Oxy-combustion 富氧燃烧富氧燃烧富氧燃烧富氧燃烧
(New + retrofit) 适用于新建和已有电厂翻新
阿尔斯通的碳捕集与封存技术
Alstom CO2 capture technologies
(New + retrofit) 适用于新建和已有电厂翻新
NER300 Applied for EU ETS
New Entrant Reserve
funding
Selected for receiving EEPR funding
Funded by the Norwegian Government
CompletedTESTS COMPLETE
AEP MountaineerUSA – 58 MWthChilled Ammonia, Coal
EoN KarlshamnSweden - 5 MWthChilled Ammonia, Fuel
WE - EnergieUSA WI - 5 MWthChilled Ammonia, Coal
DOW Chemical Co.USA, WVAdv. Amines - Coal
Alstom Activity on Pilots & Demonstrations 1st and 2nd Generation CCS
OPERATING
Vattenfall SchwarzePumpe, Germany30 MWth, Oxy - Lignite
Total LacqFrance - 30 MWthOxy - Gas
Alstom BSF WindsorUS - 15 MWthOxy - Coals
2nd Gen
DOE/Alstom WindsorUS - 3 MWthChemical Looping, Coal
Alstom Labs VäxjöSweden – 0.25 MWthPost C.-multi purpose
RFCS EU - DarmstadtGermany - 1 MWthChemical Looping - Coal
2nd Gen
TCM Mongstad Norway 40 MWth, Chilled Ammonia, CHP & Refinery Offgas (RCC)
Alstom GPU Pilot (Mobile)0.3 MWth
OPERATING COMMISSIONING
EDF Le HavreFrance - 5 MWth Adv.Adv. Amines - Coal
LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS
(under development)
White Rose CCS ProjectUK - 426 MWeOxy Hardcoal
NER300
Datang - ChinaOxy 350 MWe lignite,Post 350 MWe eq. Coal
CCM Mongstad(Gas Turbine based CHP) Norway – 280 MWe + 350 M WthChilled Ammonia
NER300
NER300
PGE BelchatowPoland - 260 MWeAdv.Amines - Lignite
Getica - CET TurceniRomania - >250 MWeChilled Ammonia-Lignite
交通运输 –广泛的产品及服务Alstom Transport - An extensive range of products and services
•列车列车列车列车: 从有轨电车到超高速列车从有轨电车到超高速列车从有轨电车到超高速列车从有轨电车到超高速列车…•Rolling stock: from trams to very high speed…
地铁地铁地铁地铁
Metro
地区列车地区列车地区列车地区列车
Regional
机车机车机车机车
Locomotives超高速列车超高速列车超高速列车超高速列车
Very high speed行驶距离行驶距离行驶距离行驶距离
DISTANCE
速度速度速度速度
SPEED
有轨电车有轨电车有轨电车有轨电车-列列列列车车车车Tram-Train
有轨电车有轨电车有轨电车有轨电车
Tram
高速列车高速列车高速列车高速列车
High speed
城际列车城际列车城际列车城际列车
Interurban
APS Tram powered from ground level有轨电车的第三轨供电系统
AGV (350 km/h)超高速列车超高速列车超高速列车超高速列车
Fourth generation very high speed train第四代超高速列车
Integrated control centres 集成控制中心集成控制中心集成控制中心集成控制中心
Global monitoring of complex transport systems对复杂交通系统的综合监控
ERTMSRevolution in “interoperable” drive systems创新的“互联互通”列车驾驶系统
交通运输：技术领先的产品
Alstom Transport：Technologically leading products
电网业务-十条主要产品线 (1/2)Alstom Grid - Organised in 10 main Product Lines (1/2)
变压器变压器变压器变压器 POWER TRANSFORMERS�More than 130,000 MVA 全球产能超过130,000MVA�1,000 transformers per year年产量超过1,000台�World’s largest electric arc furnace
transformer世界上最大的电弧炉变压器隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关 DISCONNECTORS� N° 1 manufacturer世界上规模最大的隔离开关生产商�Over 140,000 units in more than 130
countries为130个国家提供了超过140,000台机组
互感器互感器互感器互感器 INSTRUMENT TRANSFORMERS�More than 200,000 equipments已有200,000台投入运行�Compact Optical Sensor Intelligence小型光学传感器
断路器断路器断路器断路器 CIRCUIT BREAKERS�Over 80,000 equipments 已有80,000台投入运行�8,000 solutions per year 每年提供8000个解决方案�Top three suppliers with Live Tank,
Dead Tank and compact modules全球立式、罐式和敞开式断路器的前三位供应商之一气体绝缘变电站及母线气体绝缘变电站及母线气体绝缘变电站及母线气体绝缘变电站及母线
GAS-INSULATED SUBSTATIONS & LINES (GIS &
GIL)�2,000 substations GIS
2000个气体绝缘变电站�Over 150 km single-phase GIL累计生产单相气体绝缘母线超过150公里�Fivefold size decrease 五倍减少整体空间�SF6 reduction 减少六氟化硫排放
电子自动化电子自动化电子自动化电子自动化
POWER ELECTRONICS ACTIVITIES�One of the leaders in HVDC (high
voltage direct current) to transmit large
quantities of electricity over very long
distances特高压直流输电的领先者之一�Specialist in Flexible AC Transmission
Systems (FACTS)柔性交流输电专家电网管理电网管理电网管理电网管理
NETWORK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS�Worldwide leader in Energy
Management Systems 能源管理系统领先世界�Market Management Systems 电力市场管理系统�Distributed Management Systems (DMS) 配电管理系统
变电站自动化解决方案变电站自动化解决方案变电站自动化解决方案变电站自动化解决方案
SUBSTATION AUTOMATION
SOLUTIONS�MiCOM IED (Intelligent Electric Device) 智能电子设备�Conventional and Digital Control Systems
(PACiS)传统及数字化控制系统服务服务服务服务 SERVICES�From network design to asset evolution从电网设计到现有电网升级�From project to long-term partnerships从单独项目的执行到长期的合作项目�From emergency to predictive maintenance从应急服务到预防性维护
交流变电站交流变电站交流变电站交流变电站 (最高最高最高最高1200KV) AC SUBSTATIONS (up to 1200 kV)�Air/Gas-insulated switchgear 空气/气体绝缘组合开关站�Offshore and onshore wind farms 海上和陆上风场�Turnkey high voltage substations 高压变电站系统总承包�Grid interconnection for all types of generation各种能源发电的并网
电网业务-十条主要产品线 (2/2)Alstom Grid -Organised in 10 main Product Lines (2/2)
电网业务 –全球领军并时刻准备以满足市场需求Alstom Grid - Global Leadership and Ready to address the market needs
占业界领先位置的领域
Leadership in
� Air-insulated substations & gas-insulated
substations
空气绝缘开关站和气体绝缘开关站
� HVDC 高压直流输电
� FACTS 柔性交流输电
� Smart Grid technologies 智能电网技术
� Substations for offshore wind farms in Europe
为欧洲的海上风场提供开关站
� Air-insulated substations & gas-insulated
substations
空气绝缘开关站和气体绝缘开关站
� HVDC 高压直流输电
� FACTS 柔性交流输电
� Smart Grid technologies 智能电网技术
� Substations for offshore wind farms in Europe
为欧洲的海上风场提供开关站
占业界领先位置的领域
Leadership in
� Air-insulated substations & gas-insulated
substations
空气绝缘开关站和气体绝缘开关站
� HVDC 高压直流输电
� FACTS 柔性交流输电
� Smart Grid technologies 智能电网技术
� Substations for offshore wind farms in Europe
为欧洲的海上风场提供开关站
位列业界榜首的领域
No. 1 in
� Network Management Solutions 网络管理
� Market Management Systems 市场管理
� Disconnectors 隔离开关
� Digital Instrument Transformers 数字互感器
� Rectifier-based power solutions for aluminium
electrolysis processes 电解铝电厂改造
� Network Management Solutions 网络管理
� Market Management Systems 市场管理
� Disconnectors 隔离开关
� Digital Instrument Transformers 数字互感器
� Rectifier-based power solutions for aluminium
electrolysis processes 电解铝电厂改造
位列业界榜首的领域
No. 1 in
� Network Management Solutions 网络管理
� Market Management Systems 市场管理
� Disconnectors 隔离开关
� Digital Instrument Transformers 数字互感器
� Rectifier-based power solutions for aluminium
electrolysis processes 电解铝电厂改造
电力在中国的主要业绩
Alstom Main References - Power in China
POWER TURBO EQUIPMENT汽轮机汽轮机汽轮机汽轮机/水轮机水轮机水轮机水轮机
• 平圩三期 Pingwei III (Anhui) , 2x1080MW, Mar. 12
• 哈密 Hami (Xinjiang), 2x660MW, Dec. 11
• 神头 Shentou (shanxi), 2 x 600 MW, Mar. 10
• 贵溪 Guixi (Jiangxi), 2 x 600 MW, SC WCC, Jun. 08
• 平凉 Pingliang 2 (Gansu), 2 x 600 MW STG SC
• 平圩二期 /大别山 Pingwei II (Anhui)/Dabieshan(Henan), 4 x 600 MW STG SC
• 龙山 Longshan (Hebei), 2 x 600 MW STG
Three Gorges/三
峡
Ling Ao/ 岭
澳
HYDRO POWER水电水电水电水电
• 观音岩 Guanyinyan (3 x 600MW), Dec. 10
• 向家坝 Xiangjiaba (4 x 800 MW), Aug. 08
• 梨园 Liyuan (4x660MV hydro generators and its auxiliaryequipment)
• 三峡 Three Gorges Underground, Right & Left Banks (14x700 MW)
• 宝泉/惠州/白莲河 Baoquan/Huizhou/Balianhe PSP (16 x 306MW)
• 小湾 Xiaowan (6 x 780 MVA generators, with HEC)
BOILERS & ENVIRONMENT CONTROL锅炉及环境控制系统锅炉及环境控制系统锅炉及环境控制系统锅炉及环境控制系统
• 鲁能哈密 Luneng Hami , 2 x 300 MW
• 四川白马 Baima in Sichuan, 300 MW CFB Boiler, China's largestCFB
• 石洞口 Shidongkou No.2 Power Plant in Shanghai, 2x600 MW SCBoiler
• 外高桥Waigaoqiao: 2 x 1000 MW USC Boiler
• 华能威海/华能大连 SWFGD: Huaneng Weihai, Huaneng Dalian…
TURNKEY PLANT交钥匙工程交钥匙工程交钥匙工程交钥匙工程
• 合肥 Hefei power plant (Anhui), 2 x 350 MW
• 珞璜 Luohuang PP (Chongqing), 4 x 360 MW
• 沙角C Shajiao “C” (Guangdong), 3 x 660 MW
• 石洞口 Shidongkou No.2 Power Plant (Shanghai),2x600MW SC
NUCLEAR POWER核电核电核电核电
• 台山 2 x 1750MW STG for Taishan (EPR)
• 红沿河 4 x 1000 MW Arabelle STG for Hongyanhe
• 岭澳 2 x 1000 MW STG for Ling Ao 2
• 台山/昌江 EDG: Taishan, Changjiang
• 大亚湾/岭澳 4 x 1000 MW STG for Daya Bay andLing Ao
交通运输在中国的主要业绩
Alstom Main References - Transport in China
MAIN LINES 主干线业务主干线业务主干线业务主干线业务
• 动车组 140 EMUs (200 km/h) with CNR CRC
• 电力机车 500 CoCo freight locos with CNR Datong
• 电气化 Electrification Shitai (200km/h)
• 八轴货运电力机车 180 double axles «Bobo» locos with CNR
Datong
• Eurobalises for MOR
MASS TRANSIT – SIGNALING (CBTC)
城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通—信号系统信号系统信号系统信号系统（（（（基于通信的信号系基于通信的信号系基于通信的信号系基于通信的信号系
统统统统））））
• 北京 Beijing: L2 (revamping, L6, L9 ), Airport link and
Fangshan
• 深圳 Shenzhen: L2 & L5
• 广州 Guangzhou: L6
• 上海 Shanghai: L1, L3, L3 North Ext., L4, L10, L12, L13,
L16
• 昆明 Kunming: L1 & L2 ph1
• 宁波 Ningbo: L1
• 无锡Wuxi L1
• 武汉Wuhan: L2 & L4
香港 Hong Kong: SACEM signalling system, CBTC system
MASS TRANSIT – RS
城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通--列车列车列车列车• 上海 Total of 1222 cars for Shanghai Metro (Lines 1, 2,
3, 6, 8, 10, XinMin)
• 南京 Total of 456 cars for Nanjing Metro (Lines 1 & 2)
• 香港 Over 1400 train sets for Hong Kong
MASS TRANSIT – TRACTION
城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通城市轨道交通—牵引系统牵引系统牵引系统牵引系统
• 北京 Beijing: L15, L6
• 南京 Nanjing: L10
• 青岛 Qingdao L3
• 香港 Traction and TCMS for Hong Kong South Island Line
P17
电网业务在中国的主要业绩
Alstom Main References - Grid in China
Disconnectors 隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关隔离开关
�为甘肃永登变电站和宁夏水洞沟电厂提供18台800kV隔离开关
18 units of 800 kV Disconnectors installed in Gansu Yongdeng Substation & Shuidonggou Power Plant in Ningxia
Power transformers 变压器变压器变压器变压器
� 220 kV Nuclear Substation, Lingang, Shanghai� 550 kV Daya Bay and LingAo Nuclear Power Plants� 内蒙古 Inner Mongolia Daihai 4X600MW Power Plants
HVDC & FACTS 高压直流输电和柔性交流输电高压直流输电和柔性交流输电高压直流输电和柔性交流输电高压直流输电和柔性交流输电
�宁东—山东高压直流输电项目 Ningdong-Shandong HVDC link�三峡项目高压直流输电工程（葛洲坝—上海）Three Georges HVDC Project (Gezhou Dam to Shanghai)
Circuit Breakers 断路器断路器断路器断路器
�柱式断路器 More than 10,000 installations of Live Tank circuit breakers installed in China with zero failures during operations�罐式断路器 Dead Tank for Shanghai Nanqiao Substation�外壳接地断路器 180 MW Generator Circuit Breaker for Shanghai Electric
Instrument transformers 互互互互感器感器感器感器
�为国网首条1100kV交流线路提供套管Bushing for SGCC’s first 1100 kV transmission line
�零通量互感器 Zero-flux ITR for SGCC Three Gorges to Shanghai 500 kV HVDC Project
�为中国首个离岸风力发电场提供国
内第一个高压直流VSC China’s 1st VSC HVDC for the country’s 1st off-shore wind farm
EU ETS – Key facts
• The first and so far the biggest cap
and trade systems
• 11,000 installations
• 27 EU countries + Croatia + Iceland
and Norway
• Around 45% of the EU's greenhouse
gas emissions
• Potential linkage with other ETS
www.icapcarbon.com
EU ETS : allocation of allowances
From free allocation to full auctioning
Source: CDC Climat
Auctioning
Free allowances
Auctioning (or sale)
New Entrant Reserve
Free allowances
Power
Free allowances
Industry
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3M
Free allowances
EU ETS : Phase 1 (2005-2007) and Phase 2 (2008-2013)Bottom-up
• All big installations (capacity >25MWh) :electricity, industry
• yearly monitoring and reporting of CO2 emissions
• free allowances issued by national governments• Must hand in credits at the end of the year covering their CO2 emissions
• Cap: EU divides EU-cap into an individual cap for the 27 Member States
• Allocation
• Member States could choose allocation mechanism – Free allocation >
90% in Phase 1 and >95% in Phase 2
• Historical emissions used as benchmark
•Governements had incomplete information → contributed to over-
allocation
• Free allocation done to minimize impacts for international industries and
minimizing loss of competitive power of national industries.
Phase 3 (2013-2020) brings significant changesTop-down
• A single EU wide cap on emissions applies in place of the previous system of
27 national caps. Calculated based on what was needed to achieve the 2020
target of -20%. -1.74% per annum.
• Auctioning is the default method for allocating allowances
• More than 40% allowances auctioned in 2013, share to rise progressively
• Harmonized allocation rules for free allowances based on EU-wide
benchmarks of emissions performance
• Industrial installations receive free allowances on the basis of benchmarks
but must purchase at least 20% of allowances in 2013 rising to 70% in
2020 and 100% in 2027
• Operators at risk of carbon leakage will receive allowances for free up to
their benchmark
Phase 3: Free allowances allocation processBenchmark – stage 1
Source: European Commission
• Product benchmark: 75%
• 52 product benchmarks
• One product, one benchmark
• Benchmarks are based on the average
of the best 10% performing installations
• Alternative method: 25%
• Heat benchmark (20%)
• Fuel benchmark (5%)
• Process emission benchmark (<1%)
Phase 3: Free allowances allocation processCarbon leakage – stage 2
Source: Climate Economics Chair
Correction factor for Carbon Leakage sectors
• Higher CO2 costs for companies exposed to carbon leakage
• Correction factor aims at limiting the loss of competitiveness
Cap-setting : current challenges (1)
• Worsening supply and demand imbalance : a large surplus of
allowances is building up because of
– Overallocation in phase II due to incomplete information of
governments
– Severe recession has altered demand for allowances
– Full implementation of the new Energy Efficiency Directive will
have an impact on the EU ETS
• Surplus of 950 million allowances already, > 1.4 billion by the end
of phase II => will be transferred into phase III
� Weak price signal
– Carbon price : -50% in 2011
– Reached lowest point in Jan 2013 : 2.9 €/t
Source: French Govt
Cap-setting : current challenges (2)
• Consequences of the supply/demand imbalance :
– Less incentive for low carbon innovation
– Reduced government revenue from auctioning, reducing
public funds available for climate purposes
• Currently debating short-term and longer-term solutions in the
EU
– Risk : create additional regulatory uncertainty, deterring
investment and destabilizing market
• For the long term (after 2020) : a reflexion is needed on cap-
setting and governance
Source: French Govt
Lessons learntOverallocation in Phase 1
ECX CFI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6-2-2006
20 -3-2006
3-5-20 06
15 -6-2006
27 -7-2 006
7-9-2006
19 -10-2006
30 -11-2006
15 -01-2007
26 -02-2007
10 -04-2007
22 -05-2007
03 -07-2007
14 -08-2007
25 /09 /2 007
06 -11-2007
18 -12-2007
VO
LU
ME
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es
CO
2)
€0
€5
€10
€15
€20
€25
€30
€35
Pri
ce
pe
r to
nn
e (
EU
R)
Total Volume
Dec07 Sett
Dec08 Sett
• Strong lobby from industrial companies for generous free allocation resulted in
overallocation for industry
� Price decrease
� Price volatility
• Revised allocations of
especially the new-MS
• Inter-phase banking of
allowances introduced
from 2008
Source: CE Delft
Lessons learntAllocation of free allowances should reflect actual economic conditions
•Plants receive free allowances based on their historical production, but
market conditions are different
Demand
Production vs. ref.
period
=
=
Plant A Plant B Plant C
Emissions 800
Adjustment factor
for FA
100% 100%50%
Higher carbon costs
than Plant BIncentive to over
produce
350 440
Free allocations 766 766383
Lesson learntOversupply and cap inflexibility
• Phase 2 (and Phase 3) suffered from the
oversupply created by the economic crisis
• “Backloading” proposal from the EU
Commission
• Structural measures of the EU ETS
to be discussed
• Permanent Adjustment Mechanism?
• Flexible cap?
Conclusion
• The European Commission and Member States have accrued
considerable experience in implementing the ETS but are faced
with new challenges
• Challenge: find the right balance between improvement vs
predictability / regulatory stability
• Fund from auctioning should be used on climate change, such
as supporting the new low carbon tech and demo projects.
Importing factor to make the new tech fly…(In EUETS, - 50%
minimum must go towards climate change related purposes
(mitigation or adaptation, domestic or international, R&D etc.)
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