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5th European Conference on
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans14-15 MAY 2018 | NICOSIA, CYPRUS
Long Term Strategies to reduce car dependency
The Nicosia Tram – Findings of the Feasibility Study
Michael Lambrinos
Ministry of Transport, Communications and Works
NICOSIA
A divided city
Population 240.000(310.000 if occupied part is included)
14th May, 2018
Radial Road System
NICOSIA
Intense development and economic activity along the main arterials
14th May, 2018
Mobility in Nicosia
715.771 daily trips
Municipality Work PlacesInhabitants of
MunicipalityFrom other
Municipalities
Nicosia 52751 17519 35232
Strovolos 21989 10565 11424
Engomi 7404 2314 5090
Latsia 7053 2300 4753
Aglanja 6125 2383 3742
Lakatamia 4520 2938 1582
AyiosDometios 2486 1196 1290
Tseri 1205 632 573
Yeri 1144 667 477
584.439
812.681
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2009 2020
Nicosia Integrated Mobility Master Plan
Conclusion 1: The existing transport development model is not sustainable
Nicosia Integrated Mobility Master
Plan
Total trips per day 2009
• 584.439
Total trips per day2020
• 812.681
14th May, 2018
Conclusion 2: Nicosia needs investing in an effective and reliable mass transit system
715.771
942.707
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
2013 2030
Tram Feasibility Study
Tram Feasibility Study
Total trips per day 2013
• 715.771
Total trips per day 2030
• 942.707
14th May, 2018
584.439
812.681715.771
942.707
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mobility Projections
IMMP vs Tram
201314th May, 2018
The Attractiveness of the Tram
The best valued travel mode
• “I’ll take the tram because I like it”.
It optimises urban space
• Capacity equal to 3 large buses or 174 cars
Environmentally friendly
• CO2 emissions per 200 people: Tram 0 gr, Bus 945 gr, Car 8248 gr.
Fully accessible
• Direct access at street level with no steps. Audioacoustic information systems inside the vehicle.
Fast and reliable
• The fastest mode for distances up to 7km. Real time information.
Safe
• Exceptional visibility. Can coexist with pedestrians. Three break systems.
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The Attractiveness of the Tram
Regeneration of depressed areas Increase in economic activity
Upgrade of the value of nearby properties Creation of new permanent jobs
An Excellent Tool for Urban Development
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Alternative Scenarios for the Core Network
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Scenario A
16.2 km
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Scenario B
14.2 km
Alternative Scenarios for the Core Network
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Scenario C 16.6 km
Alternative Scenarios for the Core Network
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Scenario B1
Core: 14.2km Extensions: 48.3km
Alternative Scenarios for the Extensions to the Core Network
14th May, 2018
ScenarioB2
Core: 14.2km Extensions: 31.1km
Alternative Scenarios for the Extensions to the Core Network
Multi-criteria Assessment Strategy
Cluster 6:
Economic
Impact
Cluster 5:
Energy
Impact
Cluster 4:
Environme
ntal
Impact
Cluster 3:
Social -
Socioecono
mic Impact
Cluster 2:
City
Impact
Cluster 1:
Traffic
Impact
Clusters of
assessment
criteria
1614th May, 2018
Tram Infrastructure Length 14.2 km
Tram Lines Headway 10 min
Daily tram service kilometers 3106
Daily tram services 216
Average Speed of Tram (km/h) 23.0
Fleet Number 16
Construction Cost (m€) 216.5
Annual Operating Cost (m€) 11.3
% of Catenary Free Network 18.9% (2.7km)
Depot Area (1000m2) 40
Key Figures of Preferred Scenario
Non-Signalised Crossings 93
Singalised Crossings 36
Pedestrian Signalised Crossings 14
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Cost Estimate
Description Sub Totals (€)
Tram Corridor – Civil Works 39,155,650.00€
Tram Corridor – E/M Works 27,609,615.00€
Tram Depot 30,926,306.00€
Tram Vehicle 36,000,000.00€
Tram Control Center 5,000,000.00€
Structures 372,000.00€
Major Utility Diversions 836,620.00€
Urban Design Works 30,000,000.00€
Project cost according to the preliminary design 169,900,191.00€
Contractors general expenses and profit (18% Χ Project cost) 30,582,034.38€
Subtotal with Contractors general expenses and profit 200,482,225.38€
Unforeseen Expenses 9% 16,038,578.03€
Total with Unforeseen Expenses 216,520,803.41€
14th May, 2018
Summary
• 14,2km tramway
• 17 stops
• 10 min headway/ 18 hours
• 16 vehicles
• Light & Heavy Maintenance Depot
• TCC with 7 operators & emergency incident area
216,520,803.41 €
• Corridor: 66.8 M€
• Depot: 30.9 M€
• Vehicles: 36 M€
• TCC: 5 M€
• Other Civil: 1.2 M€
• Urban design: 30 M€
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Public Transport Performance Indices
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Pu
bli
c T
ran
sp
ort
Sh
are
2014
Buses only
2030
without
Tram
2030
with
Tram
14th May, 2018
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
PT Daily Service-Kilometers
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram -9%
0 500 1000 1500 2000
PT Daily Service-Hours
-17%
0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000
PT Daily Boardings
40%
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram
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0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
Bus Daily Boardings
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram +36%
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Bus Daily Service - Hours
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Bus Daily Service - Km
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram
-20%
-17%
2030 without Tram
2030 with Tram
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Comparative Analysis – PT Daily Boardings (2030)
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Daily Boardings Without Tram With tram
Tram - 53,043
Bus 83,148 112,678
Intercity Light Rail 9,539 12,708
Park-&-Ride - 2,753
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Savings in Average Trip Time with tram vs without Tram
Public Transport Users Car Users
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Key Findings – Transport Indices
Achievement of a Seamless/ Integrated Public Transport System
Improved Accessibility and Mobility for Citizens
Savings on Emissions from all Transport operations (9.5% reduction)
In-line with EU Priorities towards a Competitive and Resource Efficient Transport System (EU White Paper, 2011)
More Effective Use of Bus Network
Improvements of Level of Service on Road Traffic
Opportunities for improving urban aesthetic
14th May, 2018
Economic/ Financial IndicesOperating cost
1.293.693
8.100.000
586.672
56.411
175.000102.275
1.021.178Annual Maintenance Cost
Annual Personel Cost
Annual Energy Cost
Annual Water Supply Cost
Annual Cleaning Cost
Insurance Cost
Other Annual Administrativecost
14th May, 2018
Economic/ Financial Indices
Passenger traffic
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
Passengers (m.- left hand axis) Market share (right hand axis)
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Projected Operating Costs and revenues
Έσοδα από πωλήσεις εισιτηρίων και διαφημίσεις (€)Ετήσιο λειτουργικό κόστος (€)
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Economic/ Financial Indices
Economic/ Financial Indices
Socioeconomic benefits
7.324.460
9.814.168
7.895.342
Nicosia, Bus km
2014 Current 2030 without Tram
2030 With Tram
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Economic/ Financial Indices
Socioeconomic benefits
1.757.784.886
1.916.670.086
1.841.068.187
Nicosia, Private car km
2014
Current
2030
without
Tram
2030
With Tram
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Economic/ Financial IndicesSelected Socioeconomic benefits
2030-with Tram minus 2030-without
Tram
Social Cost per unit €
Total benefit to the society
m€
Private car km -75.601.899 0,20 15,1
Bus km -1.918.826 2,29 4,4
Trip hours for all Modes (Cars & PT) -588.592 7,35 4,3
TOTAL 23,8
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Economic/ Financial Indices
The Project is feasible and Extremely Beneficial
Economic cost of implementation €186,7m
Economic operational costs €283,4m
Cost of inconvenience during construction
€73,4m
Revenues €578,7m
Socio-economic benefits €1.198,2m
Net Present value at 6%discount rate
€308,2m
Internal Rate of Return14,1%
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Economic/ Financial IndicesViability and profitability conditions –tradeoff grant – availability payment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
An
nu
al
ava
ila
bil
ity m
€
Initial Grant m€
7.2% iso-return
9,3% iso-return
12,3% iso-return
Base case: Grant m€ 86.6
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Base case
Construction period: 3 YearsConcession period 30 operation yearsGrants: 40% of initial investment cost (m€ 86.6)Bank loan: Amount: 20% of initial investment cost (m€ 43.3)
Duration: 25 operation yearsInterest rate: 4%Grace period: 4 years - only interest paid
Amortisation 25 equal annual paymentsEquity: 40% of initial investment cost (m€ 86.6)
plus interest during grace period (m€ 4.3)Investment, grant and loan disburs:
1st year 30%2nd year 30%3rd year 40%
Target return on equity 8%Annual availability payment 4.2m€
Economic/ Financial Indices
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Economic/ Financial Indices
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Initial Grant vs Annual Availability Payments Αρχική ΧορηγίαΠληρωμές Διαθεσιμότητας
0,00€ 9,40 €
10,00 € 8,80 €
20,00 € 8,20 €
30,00 € 7,60 €
40,00 € 7,00 €
50,00 € 6,40 €
60,00 € 5,80 €
70,00 € 5,20 €
80,00 € 4,60 €
86,61 € 4,20 €
90,00 € 4,00 €
100,00 € 3,40 €
120,00 € 2,19 €
All options require the establishment of a well organized, regulatory Transport Authority, with different role according to each option.
Procurement and Implementation Strategies
Option A: Full Public
Option B: Public –Private
Option C: Private –
Public
Option D: Full Private
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Qualitative Summary of the Proposed Procurement & Implementation Strategy Risks
Strategy Project Risk Public Funding Public Subsidy
Option A: Public
Option B: Public –PrivateOption C: Private –Public
Option D: Private
LowModerateConsiderableHigh
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Επιλογές Χρηματοδότησης
1 • State Budget
2 • EU Structural Funds
3 • CEF
4 • European Fund for Strategic Investments (Juncker Plan)
5 • Green Fund (fuel tarrifs, urban tolls))
6 • Bundle state land investment into the project
7 • Project bonds
8 • Capture land property value appreciation
9 • Revenues from parking management
14th May, 2018
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Michael lambrinosMinistry of Transport, Communications and Works, Cyprus
Tel: +357-22806630, +357-99477796Email: mlambrinos@pwd.mcw.gov.cy
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