PIIC Agenda - ISODARCO · PIIC Agenda The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminar on International Security...

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PIIC Agenda

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China 02

October 19 (Sunday)

October 20 (Monday)

Registration: Venue: 18:15-20:00 Venue:

9:00-12:00 and 14:00-18:00Lobby of Zhejiang Hotel

Reception Banquet: Hosted by Mr. Li Wuwei (Former vice chairman of the CPPCC)Lilac Café

9:00-9:50Venue: Invited Speech:

9:50-10:15

10:15-12:15

Venue: Du Xiangwan Ye Qizhen

Tatsujiro Suzuki Pan Ziqiang

Opening Session (Moderator: Li Hua)Guiyu HallLi Yang (Arms Control Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CHINA)

Tea Break

Plenary Session 1: Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Security (Moderator: Yang Fujia)Guiyu HallThe Future of Nuclear Energy in ChinaPresent Situation and Prospect of the Development of Nuclear Power in PRC Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options for Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear AccidentNuclear Security and Safety in China

03

12:15-14:00 Venue:

14:00-15:45

Venue: Rajaraman Ramamurti Kang Jungmin Chaim Braun Fan Jishe

15:45-16:00

16:00-18:00

Venue: Henry Sokolski

Kelsey HartiganMirco Elena

Masafumi Matsunaga

14:00-15:45

Venue: Sue Clark

LunchLilac Café

Parallel Session (A1): Nuclear Security and Safety (Moderator: Deborah Rosenblum)Guiyu HallLessons from the Three Nuclear SummitsNuclear Power Plant Safety and SecurityCooperative Nuclear Energy Safety Regime in Northeast AsiaChina’s Nuclear Security Concept: A Balanced and Better Approach

Tea Break

Parallel Session (A2): Nuclear Power Development and Nonproliferation (Moderator: Zhu Xuhui)Guiyu HallSerious Rules for Nuclear Power without ProliferationNew Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel CycleSecurity Implications of Changing Energy StrategiesReprocessing in Japan and Japan’s Plutonium Stock

Parallel Session (B1): Nuclear Forensic and Technological Cooperation (Moderator: Joseph Pilat)Lianhua HallBuilding Confidence in Technical Nuclear Forensics Methods: Experiences Analyzing Standard Reference Materials for Actinide

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

04

Zhao Yonggang Nathalie Wall Larry Brandt

Jason Reinhardt

15:45-16:00

16:00-18:00 Venue: Alexander Glaser Yan Jie

Zia Mian Zhu Jianyu

18:00-20:00 Venue:

Elemental and Isotopic CompositionNuclear Forensic Development in ChinaAspects of Technetium Chemistry in the EnvironmentChina-U.S. Technical Cooperation on Nuclear Risk Reduction: Past Accomplishments and Future OpportunitiesThe Role of Systems and Risk Analysis in Nuclear Matters?

Tea Break

Parallel Session (B2): Disarmament and Verification (Moderator: Chen Kai)Lianhua HallNew Verification Challenges and Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control and DisarmamentThe Challenge of Nuclear Warhead Verification For Arms Control and Disarmament: A Review of Attribute and Template SystemsNext Steps in Increasing Transparency of Nuclear Warhead and Fissile Material Stocks for Nuclear Disarmament The Application of Truncated Count Imaging in Nuclear Reduction Verification

Dinner Lilac Café

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

October 21 (Tuesday)

05

9:00-10:30

Venue: Sig Hecker

Li Changhe Frank von HippelPaolo Cotta Ramusino

10:30-10:45

10:45-12:30

Venue: Victor Gilinsky Matthew Cottee

Joseph Pilat

Zhang Hui

Guo Xiaobing

12:30-14:00 Venue:

14:00-16:00

Venue:

Plenary Session 2: Enhancement of International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (Moderator: Qian Lihua )Guiyu HallNorth Korea Nuclear Program: A 10-Year RetrospectiveNuclear Problems on Korean PeninsulaIran and Multinational EnrichmentProblems of Nuclear Proliferation and Disarmament in the Middle East

Tea Break

Plenary Session 3: International SecurityCooperation and Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism (Moderator: Carlo Schaerf)Guiyu HallRethinking Nuclear Power RisksThe Nuclear Security Regime: Past, Present & FutureCascading Proliferation Fears and the Development of the Nonproliferation RegimeNext Steps for Strengthening China’s Nuclear SecurityNuclear Security in China: Perceptions and Practices

LunchLilac Café

Plenary Session 4: Verification Technologies for Arms Control (Moderator: Page Stoutland)Guiyu Hall

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

06

Li GenxinGrenard Patrick

Kelsey HartiganBenjamin Rusek

16:00-16:30

16:30-18:00 Venue: David SantoroCaroline Milne

Xia Liping

16:30-18:00

Venue: Lora Saalman

James Mark Acton

Zhao Tong

18:00-20:00Venue:

Political and Technologic Challenge in CTBTOSustaining the Technology Base of the CTBT Verification RegimeMonitoring and Verification TechnologiesMonitoring and Verification for Confidence Building

Tea Break

Parallel Session (A3): Global Strategic Stability (Moderator: Alessandro Pascolini)Guiyu HallExtended Deterrence in Northeast AsiaPerceptions of Mutual Vulnerability between Advanced Nuclear StatesStrategic Stability between China and the US from the Perspectives of the New Model of Major Powers Relations

Parallel Session (B3): Conventional Strategic Weapons and Stability (Moderator: Hu Xiaodi)Lianhua HallImpact of Prompt Global Strike Technologies on Sino-U.S. Strategic StabilityConventional Prompt Global Strike: Progress, Prospects and Implications for Strategic StabilityAddressing the Challenge of Conventional Strategic Weapons on Strategic Balance and Nuclear Stability

Dinner Lilac Café

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

October 22 (Wednesday)

07

Plenary Session 5: Strategic Stability in the NewInternational Security Situation (Moderator: Cui Liru)Guiyu HallEnhancing U.S.-China Mutual Strategic PredictabilityArms Control and Strategic StabilityWhy the US Missile Defense Will Be Unreliable in Combat

Tea Break

Closing Session (Moderator: Li Hua)

Carlo Schaerf (ISODARCO)Deborah Rosenblum (NTI)Zhu Rui (CPAPD)Yang Mingjie (CICIR)

Lunch Lilac Café

Meeting Activity: Visit Qinshan Nuclear Station(14:00 Depart from Lobby Gate by Buses)

DinnerLilac Café

9:00-10:45

Venue: Lewis DunnSun XiangliTheodore Postol

10: 45-11: 00

11: 00-12:00 Closing Remarks by:

12:00-14:00 Venue:

14:00-18:00

18:00-20:00Venue:

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Note: Speakers are allotted 15 minutes each to address the main issues of their topics.

08

ParticipantsJames Mark ACTON Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, UKjacton@ceip.org

Kazim BATMAZOğLU Leeds Metropolitan University / Leeds / UK, TURKEYkazim.batmazoglu@gmail.com

Emma BELCHER John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, AUSTRALIAebelcher@macfound.org

George BOGDENUniversity of Oxford, USAgeorge.bogden@gmail.com

Larry BRANDT Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, USAldbrandt@stanford.edu

Chaim BRAUNStanford University, USAcbraun@stanford.edu

Chen JingmeiInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA

Chen KaiChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINAchen_kai@mfa.gov.cn

Chen RuiChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINA

Chen XuzhouChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINAcxz3422@sina.com.cn

Sue CLARK Washington State University, USAs_clark@wsu.edu

October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Paolo Cotta-RamusinoPugwash, ITALYcotta@mi.infn.it

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

09 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Cui LiruChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, CHINAclr@cicir.ac.cn

Myagmar DOVCHINThe Mongolian Institute for Geopolitical Studies, MONGOLIAmyagmarf@yahoo.com

Du Jiexin China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Du Xiangwan China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Du ShengMinistry of Foreign Affair, CHINA

Du Yanjun China Institutes of ContemporaryInternational Relations, CHINAdu_yanjun@cicir.ac.cn

Duan Zhanyuan China Arms Control and Disarmament, CHINAdzy_2002@xinhuanet.com

Lewis DUNNScience Applications International Corporation, USAladdunn@msn.com or lewis.a.dunn@saic.com

Mirco ELENAProvincia Autonoma di Trento, ITALYelena@science.unitn.it

Feng WenChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Fan Jishe Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, CHINAfanjs@cass.org.cn

Matthew COTTEEInternational Institude of Strategic Studies (IISS), UKcottee@iiss.org

10October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Fei XiaojunChina International Institute for strategic Society, CHINAfxj0174@sina.com

Geng QingyunChinese Nuclear Society, CHINA13801220296@139.com

Victor GILINSKY Consultant, USAvictor@gilinsky.com

Alexander GLASER Princeton University, GERMANYaglaser@princeton.edu

Patrick GRENARD CTBTO, Viena, FRANCEpatrick.grenard@ctbto.org

Gu Guoliang Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, CHINAGugl@cass.org.cn

Guo XiaobingChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, CHINAguoxiaobing@cicir.ac.cn

Hang YihongChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Hao FanhuaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA1473465443@qq.com

Kelsey HARTIGANNuclear Threat Initiative, USAHartigan@nti.org

Siegfried HECKERStanford University, USAshecker@stanford.edu (Cc: iuria@stanford.edu)

John FEIMacArthur Foundation, USAjfei@macfound.org

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

11 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Li HuaInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINAlihuaw@iapcm.ac.cn

Li JiaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAlijia@caep.cn

Jiang KangCentre for Science and Security Studies, Department of War Studies, King's College London, CHINAkang.jiang@kcl.ac.uk

Jiang YiminChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAyimin_jiang@yeah.net

Jin XikangNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA jxk8847@126.com

Jungmin KANG Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, KOREAjungminkang64@gmail.com

Kang ChunmeiChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINAchm_kang@caep.cn

Gregory KULACKI Union of Concerned Scientists, USAgkulacki@ucsusa.org

Li ChangheChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINAchangheli_x@sina.com

Li GenxinCTBTO, UN, CHINAligenxin@hotmail.com

Hu SideChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAhsd@iapcm.ac.cn

Hu XiaodiMinistry of Foreign Affairs, CHINA1617633461@qq.com

April HUMBLE Climate Service Center, BRITISH (Scottish)april.humble1@gmail.com

Hou HongyuChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINAcpapd@cpapd.org.cn

12October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Li PengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINA

Li WuweiChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINA

Li YangMinistry of Foreign Affairs, CHINA

Liao KeChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Liu BoChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, CHINAliubo@cicir.ac.cn

Liu GongliangInstitute of Applied Physics andComputational Mathematics, CHINA

Liu XiaomingChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINAliuxiaoming@cacda.gov.cn

Lu YinNational Defense University, CHINAndudeer@163.com

Luo FeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAfeiluo@163.com

Luo WenhuaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAluowenhua@caep.cn

Ma ChunyanChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center,CHINA

Masafumi MATSUNAGAIPFM(Japan Member), JAPANtakubomasa@ybb.ne.jp

Miao YongChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINA

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

Zia MIANProgram on Science & GlobalSecurity, Princeton University, UKzia@princeton.edu

13 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Ramamurti RAJARAMANJawaharlal Nehru University, INDIAprof_rajaraman@yahoo.com, doug1968@hotmail.com

Jason REINHARDTCenter for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University, USAreinhardt@stanford.edu

Deborah ROSENBLUMNuclear Threat Initiative, USA

Benjamin RUSEKCommittee on International Securityand Arms Control (CISAC), U.S. National Academy of Sciences, USAbrusek@nas.edu

Joseph PILATLos Alamos National Laboratory, USAjpilat@lanl.gov

Theodore POSTOLMassachusetts Instituteof Technology, USApostol@mit.edu

Qiu YongChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINAqiuy@caep.cn

Qian LihuaChina Arms Control and Disarmament, CHINA

Caroline MILNEWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, PrincetonUniversity, USAcsreilly@princeton.edu

Ouyang LipingChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, CHINA

Pan ZiqiangChina Nuclear Industry Corporation,CHINA

Alessandro PASCOLINIDepartment of physics andastronomy, ITALYpascolini@pd.infn.it

14October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Lora SAALMANAsia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, USAlorasaalman@gmail.com

David SANTOROPacific Forum CSIS, FRANCEdavid@pacforum.org

Carlo SCHAERF University of Rome "Tor Vergata", Isodarco, ITALYschaerf@roma2.infn.it

Oleg SEROVEmbassy of the RussianFederation, RUSSIAolegvserov@mail.ru

Najmuddin SHAIKHFormer ForeignSecretary. PAKISTAN, PAKISTANshaikh28@gmail.com

Sha ZhipingChina Instituty of NuclearInformatian & Economics, CHINAzhpsha@163.com

Shen LixinChinese Nuclear Society, CHINA

Shen YanpingChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINApsnss@iapcm.ac.cn

Shi LeleiChina Instituty of Nuclear Informatian & Economics, CHINAeagle_shi@hotmail.com

Shi ShaozhuNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINAsszchina@163.com

Shi Jianbin China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAshi_jb@mail.ustc.edu.cn

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

Henry SOKOLSKINonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), USAHENRY@NPOLICY.ORG

15 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Sun HaiyangSecond artillery commandcollege, CHINAsunsea666666@163.com

Sun XiangliChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINAsunxiangli@iapcm.ac.cn

Tatsujiro SUZUKIResearch Center for NuclearWeapons Abolition(RECNA),Nagasaki University, JAPANsuzukitatsu@nagasaki-u.ac.jp

Tian JingmeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAtian_jingmei@iapcm.ac.cn

Tian Dongfeng China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAdftian@iapcm.ac.cn

Frank VON HIPPELPrinceton University, USAfvhippel@princeton.edu

Nathalie WALLWashington State University, USAnawall@wsu.edu

Mark B.M. SUHKorean Pugwash Group, KOREAmarksuh@gmx.net

Song XiangyuChina Instituty of NuclearInformatian & Economics, CHINAxiangyu_song@163.com

Page STOUTLANDNuclear Threat Initiative, USAStoutland@nti.org

Su JiahangChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAsujh06@163.com

Shuai maobingChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAshuaimaobing@caep.cn

16October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Wang DeliInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA

Wang ZhengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINAkookwangzgeng@163.com

Wei FayuanChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAweify@caep.cn

Wei MengfuChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAweimengfu@caep.cn

Wu JunInstitute of Applied Physicsand Computational Mathematics, CHINAwujun@iapcm.ac.cn

Wu xingchunChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA

Xia LipingTongji University, CHINAxialp@hotmail.com

Xia RuijiaChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINA

Xiang QingpeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAxiangpingpei@163.com

Xiang XunChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA

Xiang YongchunChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA18990109331@126.com

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

Xie DongInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA xie_dong@iapcm.ac.cn

17 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Ye QizhenChina Nuclear Industry Corporation, CHINA

Ye YuguanChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINAyeyuguan@139.com

Ying YangjunInstitute of Applied Physics andComputational Mathematics , CHINA

Yu XiaolingChina Defence Science and TechnologyInformation Center, CHINAycancan@sina.com

Yang FujiaFudan University, CHINAfjyang23@yahoo.com

Yang MingjieChina Institutes of ContemporaryInternational Relations, CHINAYangmingjie@263.net

Yan JiePrinceton University, CHINAjieyan@princeton.edu

Xu XuefengChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAreandy123@163.com

Xie WenxiongChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAxiewenx86@gmail.com

Xu RongChina Arms Control and Disarmament, CHINAxurong@cacda.org.cn

Xu WeidiNational Defense University, CHINAxu_weid1225i@126.com

Xu WenliChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

18October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Yuan EnlunChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA13501149381@163.com

Yue JiangfengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINAgfkjxx@sohu.com

ZHANG Hui Harvard University, USAhui_zhang@harvard.edu

Zhang Chuanfei China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA

Zhang HongInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA

Zhang LixingNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA zhanglixing@aliyun.com

Zhang MengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINAdavidmikemiui@gmail.com

Zhang PingNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA

Zhang SongbaiInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINAsb_zhang@iapcm.ac.cn

Zhao TongCarnegie Endowment for International Peace, CHINA zhaot2005@gmail.com

Zhang YuChina Foundation forInternational Strategic Studies, CHINAZhangyu@cfiss.org.cn

Zhao WuwenChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAzhao_wuwen@sina.com

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

Zhao YonggangChina Institute of Atomic Energy, CHINAzhaoyg@ciae.ac.cn

Zheng YanChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAzysynthia@sina.com

Zhou LinChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINA411zhoul@caep.cn

Zhu JianyuChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINAzhujyu@126.com

Zhu MingChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA

Zhu RuiChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINAcpapd@cpapd.org.cn

Zou YunhuaChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINAyhzou@yahoo.com

Zhu XuhuiChina Nuclear IndustryCorporation, CHINAzhuxh2007@sina.com

19 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

About the Sponsors

Institute of Applied Physics and Computational MathematicsThe Beijing Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics

was founded in 1958. Its areas of study include theoretical physics, nuclear

and particle physics, plasma physics, laser physics, fluid dynamics, applied

mathematics, computational mathematics, computer applications, and arms

control science and technology.

International School of Disarmament and Research on ConflictsThe International School of Disarmament and Research on Conflicts

(ISODARCO) is a non-government organization founded in 1966 by two Italian

physics professors, Edoardo Amaldi and Carlo Schaerf, which offers a unique

international forum on security problems throughout the world. ISODARCO’s

purpose is to bring together those with a great variety of experiences and

approaches relating to security problems with discussions focused on

commissioned expert papers.

China Institutes of Contemporary International RelationsChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) is a

comprehensive research institution for international studies. In compliance

with the directive of the State Council to set up a series of new institutions

for international studies, the predecessor organization, China Institute of

Contemporary International Relations, announced its official establishment

in 1980. In 2003, the Institute was renamed and upgraded to China Institutes

of Contemporary International Relations. CICIR consists of 11 institutes, two

research divisions under direct supervision of CICIR leaders, eight research

centers and several administrative departments. CICIR has now a staff of 380,

including researchers, administrative and logistic personnel, among whom 150

are research professors or associate research professors.

20October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security

21 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China

Chinese People’s Association for Peace and DisarmamentFounded in June 1985, the Chinese People’s Association for Peace and

Disarmament (CPAPD) is the largest Chinese non-governmental peace

association with a total of 24 influential member organizations. The

objectives of the CPAPD are to promote mutual understanding, friendship

and cooperation between the peoples of China and the rest of the world in

joint efforts to maintain world peace, oppose an arms race and war, achieve

arms control and disarmament, strive for complete prohibition and thorough

destruction of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction,

protect ecological environment, and promote social harmony and sustainable

development.

Nuclear Threat InitiativeThe Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization

with a mission to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and

preventing the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and to

work to build the trust, transparency and security that are preconditions to

the ultimate fulfillment of the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s goals and ambitions.

Recognizing that governments have most of the resources and authority in the

large-scale work of threat reduction, NTI emphasizes leverage—using its voice

to raise awareness and advocate solutions; undertaking direct action projects

that demonstrate new ways to reduce threats; and foster new thinking about

these problems. Founders Ted Turner and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn

serve as co-chairmen of the board of directors, which includes members from

China, India, Japan, Jordan, Pakistan, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom and

the United States.

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