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Planning in Education(Enrollment Projection & Resources Mobilization)
EDM6212: Planning & Finance in Education
Faculty of Education, CUHK
Y.P. Chung
2004
Planning & Policy-making in Education
• Two major questions to ask:– Desirable? (Why?)
• Efficiency & productivity concerns
• Equity & distribution concerns
• Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns
– Feasible & sustainable?• Enrollment projection
• Resources mobilization
Enrollment Projection
• E.g. Development of compulsory education– Social demand & schedule of development
– Coverage• Gender & Age
– Enrollment projection• Population structure
• Stock & flow model
Variables & Parameters
• Stock– Population by age & gender
– Stationary number at a specific time point
• Flow– Changes over time: in- & out-flows
– Parameters affecting changes• “Natural” – e.g. mortality rate
• “Policy” - e.g. compulsory education law
• Areas of research
Some Technical Information
• Planning-tables & electronic spread-sheet• Space research spin-off
• Cell definition & content• Row and column• Data (number)• Formula
• Cell reference in formula• Variable: row and/or column• Fixed reference
• Automatic calculation & re-calculations
Projection of primary enrollment
• Spread-sheet 1– Retention rate estimation
• Spread-sheet 3– Enrollment projection
• Spread-sheet 2– Internal efficiency of student flow
• Spread-sheet 4– Resources estimation: teacher requirement
The Planning & Policy Variablesin Teacher Planning
• Planning Variables– Social demand & the population structure
– Development trend & projection: the basic model• Given existing policy parameters
• Stock & flow model
• Uncertainty & robust test
• Effects of New Policies– Policy with direct effects – simple projection from basic model
– Policy with indirect effects – policy research
A1: New Demand for Teachers
• A2: Student enrollemnt
• A3: Curriculum arrangement e.g.– Class-meetings per week– Teacher-load for different subject
• A4: Teacher-Student ratio
Student Enrollment
A5: Enrollment ratio
A7: Legislation on compulsory educ
Education for production
Education for social integration
A8: Social demand
Education as human capital
Education as social capital
Education as positional goods
A6: School-age Population
• A9: Population structure• Production age
• A10: Fertility rate & Mortality rate• Family planning & female education• Health, community hygiene & medicine• War & epidemic outbreak
• A11: Net immigration• Level of development• Immigration law
B1: Replacement Demand
• B2: Age structure of the existing teaches
• B3: Leaving rate of teachers
• B4: Salary schedule• International comparison
• Comparison with other careers
• Rate of growth & maximum
• B5: Working conditions• EC-Report 5
Teacher Continuous Professional Development
• Leaving rate– Testing & screening
• Norm- or Criterion-referenced
– Heavy burden (teacher work-load)
• Retention rate– Improvement of competency– Career growth
• The professionalization of teachers
Planning & Policy-making in Education
• Two major questions to ask:– Desirable? (Why?)
• Efficiency & productivity concerns
• Equity & distribution concerns
• Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns
– Feasible & sustainable?• Enrollment projection
• Resources mobilization– Who should pay? & how much?
– Stakeholders
– Cost/Benefit analysis
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