Planning in Education(Enrollment Projection & Resources Mobilization)

EDM6212: Planning & Finance in Education

Faculty of Education, CUHK

Y.P. Chung

2004

Planning & Policy-making in Education

• Two major questions to ask:– Desirable? (Why?)

• Efficiency & productivity concerns

• Equity & distribution concerns

• Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns

– Feasible & sustainable?• Enrollment projection

• Resources mobilization

Enrollment Projection

• E.g. Development of compulsory education– Social demand & schedule of development

– Coverage• Gender & Age

– Enrollment projection• Population structure

• Stock & flow model

Stock & Flow Model

Enrollment Projection 1

Enrollment Projection 2

Variables & Parameters

• Stock– Population by age & gender

– Stationary number at a specific time point

• Flow– Changes over time: in- & out-flows

– Parameters affecting changes• “Natural” – e.g. mortality rate

• “Policy” - e.g. compulsory education law

• Areas of research

Some Technical Information

• Planning-tables & electronic spread-sheet• Space research spin-off

• Cell definition & content• Row and column• Data (number)• Formula

• Cell reference in formula• Variable: row and/or column• Fixed reference

• Automatic calculation & re-calculations

Projection of primary enrollment

• Spread-sheet 1– Retention rate estimation

• Spread-sheet 3– Enrollment projection

• Spread-sheet 2– Internal efficiency of student flow

• Spread-sheet 4– Resources estimation: teacher requirement

UNESCO – Basic Education Model

Teacher Requirement : S-F 1

Teacher Requirement : S-F 2

The Planning & Policy Variablesin Teacher Planning

• Planning Variables– Social demand & the population structure

– Development trend & projection: the basic model• Given existing policy parameters

• Stock & flow model

• Uncertainty & robust test

• Effects of New Policies– Policy with direct effects – simple projection from basic model

– Policy with indirect effects – policy research

Teacher Demand Model

Teacher Demand – Two sources

Teacher Demand – New demand

Teacher Demand – Replacement demand

A1: New Demand for Teachers

• A2: Student enrollemnt

• A3: Curriculum arrangement e.g.– Class-meetings per week– Teacher-load for different subject

• A4: Teacher-Student ratio

Student Enrollment

A5: Enrollment ratio

A7: Legislation on compulsory educ

Education for production

Education for social integration

A8: Social demand

Education as human capital

Education as social capital

Education as positional goods

A6: School-age Population

• A9: Population structure• Production age

• A10: Fertility rate & Mortality rate• Family planning & female education• Health, community hygiene & medicine• War & epidemic outbreak

• A11: Net immigration• Level of development• Immigration law

B1: Replacement Demand

• B2: Age structure of the existing teaches

• B3: Leaving rate of teachers

• B4: Salary schedule• International comparison

• Comparison with other careers

• Rate of growth & maximum

• B5: Working conditions• EC-Report 5

Teacher Continuous Professional Development

• Leaving rate– Testing & screening

• Norm- or Criterion-referenced

– Heavy burden (teacher work-load)

• Retention rate– Improvement of competency– Career growth

• The professionalization of teachers

Planning & Policy-making in Education

• Two major questions to ask:– Desirable? (Why?)

• Efficiency & productivity concerns

• Equity & distribution concerns

• Participation, socialization & social cohesion concerns

– Feasible & sustainable?• Enrollment projection

• Resources mobilization– Who should pay? & how much?

– Stakeholders

– Cost/Benefit analysis