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PoC and Private Sector in Post Disaster/Conflict settings: the need for a
systemic approach“Peace and Stability Operations Training and Education Workshop”
(PSOTEW)
Governance Innovation for Security & Development Track
24--28 March 2014, George Mason University, Arlington Campus
Patrik Willot info@willot.com
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Thread line
1. What are the needs?
2. What are the windows of opportunity for Military support?
3. Necessity of a Systemic Approach
4. Identifying the Triggers
5. Some examples…Patrik Willot March 2014
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Some characteristics of post-conflict situations (in Private Sector Development in Post-Conflict Countries. N. Mac Sweeney, Cambridge UK, DCED 2008)
Patrik Willot March 2014
Civil Society is also Private Sector
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PoC Examples…more and more Urbantherefore: no food, guerilla, human density, etc. Rule of Law:
Local Police must be paid their monthly salary in a situation where local GOV unable to do it. Cf. Bangui CAR
Local Police must be armed without delay. Cf. arms embargo on Haiti made it impossible
Functioning markets e.g. access of food to towns (agriculture, roads, bridges) – a priority- before Sustainable Economy
Functioning Economy: Youth at work with Cash for Work schemes, Gender positive discrimination towards Women, securing access to income generating activities, etc.
Taking into account seasons and seasonality (agricultural crops, meat supply –transhumance-) or religious (meat transformation –ethnic/religious e.g. Islamic by tradition in some Christian or Buddhist communities). Cf. Bangui CAR
Particular attention to Gender issues
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Sociology, Social & Cultural Anthropology, Systems theory”
Patrik Willot March 2014
Necessity of an approach mixing analysis of structure, functions and time to determine the TRIGGERS
“Everything is connected to everything else” (Source: Lt. General Zinni’s Twenty Lessons Learned for Humanitarian Assistance and Peace Operations”)
“Interdependence is the first of the fundamentals of a comprehensive approach” (Source: Guiding Principles for Stabilization and Reconstruction –GPSR- Para 5.1 p. 29, PKSOI)
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Need for an integrated perception in community development
Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of
NAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005Patrik Willot March 2014
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Society Structure, triggers, evolution in N-dimensions
Trigger 1: Basic needs are covered
Trigger N-1: Economic activity of the Private Sector
Trigger N: Rule of Law is functioning
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Key Success factors…unanimity in different sources
Patrik Willot March 2014
Keys for redefining intervention tools in analysis of post-crisis (Source: URD Group France 2010):
1. Avoid “Blue Print” mechanisms based on a unique evolution scenario and take into account the multiplicity of directions that the “crisis exit” may take
2. Favor the appropriation of analysis and diagnostic by local actors by putting into place inclusive and participative mechanisms through negotiation with State and Civil Society actors
3. Reinforce the sharing of information and analysis
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Key Success factors…(2)
Patrik Willot March 2014
Among the success factors listed in the “Core Pre-deployment Training Materials”
Credibility
Legitimacy
Promotion of National & Local Ownership
Source: Peace Operations Training Institute. March 2014
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Why? What do “Beneficiaries” think?
1. Credibility gap1. Disaster/Post Disaster: is GOV in control? No and then
maybe Yes...but 1) absorption capacity; 2) political control
2. Who are these foreign troops (MINUSTAH: before and after, U.N. /ex-colony). What is the strategy of the big powers behind?
3. U.N. troops are GOV troops: economic source of revenues, Nepal/Cholera, neighbors Somali/Kenya
2. Legitimacy gap1. Military take stock: by default in Disaster, by choice of
GOV in Post Disaster
2. Who are these NGOs? Tsunami: work done for 80% by 20%of non-clusterised NGOs (Cluster = U.N. = GOV) => Therefore no humanitarian help for rebels – Syria)
Patrik Willot March 2014
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= > Windows for Military support in Crisis
Patrik Willot March 2014
Perception by Civil Society of external « help »
Crisis Post Crisis
Human made Political Political Natural Non Political Political
Nature of Military action Crisis Post Crisis Human made By mandate By mandate Natural By necessity By mandate When by mandate => possible conflict of interest
Capacity to Build & Operate in Crisis
Infrastructure Rule of Law Free Markets for Essentials
Health Food/Cash for Work
Hope
Government No No No No No No Civil Society Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Business No No Yes No No No Dev. Banks No No No No Yes No NGOs Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Military Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
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Required Thinking in terms of “Value Chains”
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Linking the different parts……
Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation EffortsStages and Plan for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction ofNAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces
Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of
NAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005
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Basic Principles for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction. Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of NAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Example: Importance of Women in Post Crisis economics
Patrik Willot March 2014
Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Women role and interest in Infrastructure Development
Patrik Willot March 2014
Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Women role and interest
Patrik Willot March 2014
Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Women role and interest
Patrik Willot March 2014
Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Relevant actions on the triggers need to be thought and evaluated with the criteria inspired from OECD DAC
Patrik Willot March 2014
Credible and Communicated: the partners including the civil society need to be informed and need to believe in actions and results
Impactful : The positive and negative changes produced by an intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended.
• What has happened as a result of the action?• What real difference has the activity made to the beneficiaries?• How many people have been affected?
Effective: A measure of the extent to which an action attains its objectives.• To what extent were the objectives achieved / are likely to be achieved?• What were the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of
the objectives?
Efficient: Efficiency measures the outputs -- qualitative and quantitative -- in relation to the inputs in relation to cost, timing, second best option
Sustainable: Sustainability is concerned with measuring whether the benefits of an activity are likely to continue after donor funding has been withdrawn.
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High-Level Gaps & Challenges (Source: GPS)Gaps = weaknesses in knowledge, recurring all the time &
Challenges = shortfalls in practice….among those
1. Lack of an agreed overall vision or “storyline” to set strategic direction
2. Insufficient realism in the timelines for key recovery outcomes => unreasonable expectations from all parties
3. Inadequate links between priorities across the security, rule of law, governance, economic & social arenas
4. Insufficient understanding of host nation context & needs
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Years later….
Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Summary
Patrik Willot March 2014
Systemic approach is needed but requires: Credibility (hidden agenda)/Communication a Holistic approach a System approach (structure, evolution, process) a Participatory approach => National & Local Ownership
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Backup
Patrik Willot March 2014
Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Domaines des problèmes prioritaires révélés par l’enquête participative (arrondis)
Importance 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Renforcement des capacités 1200Environ. 1200Eau potable 1500Emploi / entreprise 2000Corruption 2100Santé 3400Education / form. 3500Argent 5500Insécurité / paix 5800Gouvernance 13000
Source : adapté du Comité technique du CSLP, DSRP p.10 et 1128 janvier 2010
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Backup
Patrik Willot March 2014
What was the main lesson learnt from Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda (JEEAR)?“The evaluation was highly critical of the absence of an effective political and military response to the genocide by the international community. In such a context, humanitarian action effectively became a substitute for political action and humanitarian agencies were forced to work in extremely challenging, almost impossible situations.”
Source: The Sphere Project. Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. John Bolton 2014
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Keys to a Systemic approach to SocietySociety• Has a structure• Has functions as in “Processes”• Has a dynamic evolution from one unstable equilibrium
point to another
Society in post crisis undergoes threats to its structure, processes and evolution
Societies in poor countries are even more unstable
=>
…what about Societies in post crisis in poor countries….
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Backup
Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Backup
Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International
Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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Backup
Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International
Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008
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PoC = a definition, its Principles, the sequence? The Protection of Civilians (PoC) refers, among others, to
efforts to secure the rights of civilians to access essential services and resources and to contribute to a secure, stable and just environment for civilians in the long term (PoC Military Reference Guide – PKSOI- January 2013)
Time line = Peace Support Operations (PSO) or Military Operations during Armed Conflict (MOAC)
5 Principles
Patrik Willot March 2014
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PoC Military Reference Guide - the 5-45 FWK
Patrik Willot March 2014
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Society as a “living” organism, therefore “a complex system”
Patrik Willot March 2014
“Process” analysis is required to analyse “Value Chains(example: seasons-> crops, safe roads->access to market, market transparent-> food for urban population. Meat market and commerce controlled by ethnic/religious group. CAR, Uganda, etc.)
Value chains, as any chains, are only as solid as their weakest element, one suffice to break the chain
Value chains need to be tackled very upstream in critical path since errors and benefits de-multiply along the chain
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CAR….Governance is what is needed
Patrik Willot March 2014
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