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The 2017 Housing& Economic OutlookFrank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist
@DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEconThe views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice
and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide
accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose.CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
Household Mobility & Mortgage Market Trends
Household Trends:
–Millenniums have added to housing need: renters today, owners tomorrow
–Homeowners (primarily Baby Boomers) are staying in their homes longer
–Interstate buyers driven by affordability, jobs, weather
Mortgage Trends:
–Home-price growth & lessened mobility prompts more home-improvement
–High LTV & debt-to-income products are in market, but need good credit
–While overall credit risk remains low, fraud risk increases
Large Demographic Tailwind Has ArrivedLargest Age
Cohort
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2015
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Age in 2015
34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Average Age
First-time
Homebuyer
Average Age
Repeat Buyer
Population
in 2015
(Millions)
16%
12%
8%
4%
20%
Millennial Share of Buyers Lower in Expensive Markets
Share of Purchase-Money Applicants Aged Under 30
Source: CoreLogic
(purchase loan
applications,
Jan-Oct 2016)
Americans Are Keeping Their Homes Longer
8
6
4
2
10
12
Number of Years A Home Is Owned (Median)
14
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: American Housing Survey for the United States, various years (difference between
survey year and median year owner-occupant moved into unit), CoreLogic public records for
United States (length of time between recorded sales on same home).
2010 2015
Home
Sellers
Owner
Occupants
Interstate Buyers Seek Affordability, Jobs and Warmth
Jan-Oct 2016)Ratio of Buyers Moving Out to Moving InRatio of Buyers Moving In to Moving Out
All Ages
NY, NJ
NC, FL
CA, CO
VA, FL
CA, CO
CA, FL
CA, TX
CA, OR
NY, PA
FL, KY
VA, FL
NJ, FL
MD, FL
FL, IN
TX, NV
NJ, FLSource: CoreLogic
(purchase loan
applications,
States in
Green are Top
2 Sources
States in Red
are Top 2
Destinations
11 22 33 44
Millennials: Affordability & Jobs
Baby Boomers: Affordability & Warmth
Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan
Ages 25-34 Ages 55 and Older
applications, Jan-Oct 2016)
NYNC
VA CA
AZCA
ORNY
KY
VA NJ
NY NC CA
FLCA FL NY
GA
MDIN
TXNJ
AZFL
FL
FL NJ
FLFL
AZFL
State in Green
is Top Source
State in Red is
Top Destination
New-Home Sales Levels Highest in the SouthMonthly Number of New Sales (Average) New Home Sale Share
Based on
the Top 100
Metros for
Home Sales
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Houston TX
Dallas TX
Atlanta GA
Phoenix AZ
Austin TX
Charlotte NC
Washington DC
San Antonio TX
Orlando FL
Tampa FL
Denver CO
Nashville TN
Riverside CA
New York NY
Raleigh NC
Las Vegas NV
Jacksonville FL
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: CoreLogic. Left: average monthly new homes sold Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; Right: new-home share of sales Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales.
25%
Raleigh NC
Austin TX
Charleston SC
San Antonio TX
Provo UT
Houston TX
Columbia SC
Dallas TX
Charlotte NC
Jacksonville FL
Naples FL
Lakeland FL
Baton Rouge LA
Boise ID
Nashville TN
Orlando FL
Las Vegas NV
Highest Growth New-Home Markets (top 100 metros)
Source: CoreLogic, percent change, number of new-home sales Oct 2015-to-Sept
Highest Growth New-Home Metros0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Tucson AZ2016 vs. Oct 2014-to-Sept 2015, based on 100 largest metros for new home sales.
Boise ID
Port St. Lucie FL
Sacramento CA
Daphne AL
Anaheim CA
Salt Lake City UT
Colorado Springs CO
Phoenix AZ
Knoxville TN
Des Moines IA
San Diego CA
Dallas TX
Atlanta GA
Portland OR
Greeley CO
Pensacola FL
Tampa FL
Deltona FL
Nashville TN
Metros with:
• good affordability,
• good job growth,
• good weather
have had the highest
growth in new-home
sales over the last year
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (December 6, 2016 release)
140
120
160
200
5% 180
220
2012 2014 2016 2018
43%
CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)
- Forecast -
U.S. Home Prices: Price to Moderate to 4.7% in 2017
HELOC Volume Up in 2016Approved HELOCs (Billions of Dollars)
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$02000 2004 2008 2012 2016
(Through September,
Annualized)
Source: CoreLogic public records, second-lien HELOCs placed more than 60 days after first lien.
2016 Loans Have Less Credit Risk Than Pre-2009 LoansCoreLogic Housing Credit Index (2001 = 100)
36
0
2001 2003 2006
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2011 2013 2016
Mo
reR
isk
Le
ss
Ris
k
2001-2003
Benchmark
Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index (through 2016Q3)
2001-03
mean +1 s.d.
Credit Score Less Than 640
LTV Share 95 And Above
DTI Share 43 And Above
Non-OwnerOccupancy Share
Condo Co-op Share
Low & No Doc Share
75
50
25
0
100
125
150
Benchmark (2001 and 2002 Originations)
Current (2016:Q3)
Mortgage Credit Risk Along Six DimensionsFirst-Lien Home Purchase Originations
37Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index
Beginning 2009, Excellent Loan Performance
38
Serious Delinquency Rate by Origination Cohort
1999-2003 2004-2008 2009-2014
Source: CoreLogic: March 2016
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