The need for a ” The need for a ”Spectrum of conflict”

The need for a The need for a

””Spectrum of conflict”

French Doctrine

Spectrum of conflict

NATO Doctrine

Spectrum of conflict

British defence doctrine 2008

British defence doctrine 2008

High intensity

”Total war” Crisis

Collaps of society

Low intensity

”Limited war”

Building society

Importance

Maneuvre warfare

Comprehensive approach

MSD 02 MSD 12

Military victory Civilian developement

Regular warfare Irregular warfare

The new Swedish military strategic doctrine will incooperate a wide spectrum of conflict

The Swedish spectrum of conflictThe Swedish spectrum of conflict

to handle regular war, crisis, irregular war etcto handle regular war, crisis, irregular war etc

Purpose: Understand the conflict in order to apply military power in the right way

A presentation of

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Swedish spectrum of conflict

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Regular war ”Cold war”

Stability by balance of power

Character

Military crisis

Instability

Failing stateIrregular war

Hybride war

Humanitarian crisis

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

CrisisUSSR sub 81

Kosovo now

Northern AfghanistanSouthern

Aghanistan

W W 2Korea after

the war

Somalia Central-African Republic ?

Bosnia 93

Lebanon 2006

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios

Non-cooperative Co-operative

States

I. Multipolar• great powers and power blocs• economic and political rivalry• protectionism

III. Fragmentation• globalisation stagnates• social insecurity• identity plays key role

II. Multilateral • strong position of the West alongside emergence of BRIC• global governance reformed• ongoing globalisation

IV. Network• non-polar world order• global market economy and civil society• inherent unpredictability

Various actors

This picture is from the Netherlands long term planning studies

Guerilla Phase 1

Guerilla war phase 2

Guerilla war phase 3

To describe a conflict

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Deter

Influence

Purposes for use of military power

Defend

Defeat

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Coerce

Coerce

Coerce

Full Spectrum Operations

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Perfect ! OK !

Maybe… ? Useless ?

Stealth robot corvette Visby

Full Spectrum Operations

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Perfect ! OK !

Maybe……. Useless ?

Full Spectrum Operations

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Intel

Fires Mobility

Sustainment

C2Protection

Intel

Fires Mobility

Sustainment

C2Protection

Intel

Fires Mobility

Sustainment

C2Protection

Intel

Fires Mobility

Sustainment

C2Protection

Doctrine and conceptual thinking in building armed forces

France Germany

Char B1 Mark II

Firepower and protection Maneuvreability

May 1940

Linear doctrine of attrition Non-linear maneuvre doctrine

Heavy and slow Agile and fast short range / thirsty Long range / can be filled with cans

Propulsion is given priority

Full Spectrum Operations

Off Def Def Off Def

Off DefStab

OffDef

Stab

Off

DefStab

Clear Hold Build

o

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

Maneuvre warfare Diplomacy and show of force

Comprehensive Approach

Methods

Endure attrition

CLEAR – HOLD – BUILD ?

Regular war

High state involvement (state on state)

Irregular war

Low involvement from state (stateless)

Permissive environment

Low intense violence

Non permissive environment

Intense violence

DiscussionDiscussion

Does Georgia have a spectrum of conflict ?Does Georgia have a spectrum of conflict ?

How do you feel about the Swedish spectrum of conflict ? How do you feel about the Swedish spectrum of conflict ?

Why is it important to understand the spectrum of conflict ?Why is it important to understand the spectrum of conflict ?

Where in the spectrum would you place: Where in the spectrum would you place:

- 2008 conflict with Russia ?- 2008 conflict with Russia ?

- Todays relation to Russia ?- Todays relation to Russia ?

- Your involment in Afghanistan ?- Your involment in Afghanistan ?