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WelcomeClimate change and resilience in
asset management
James HughesClimate + Resilience
Specialist
Who is with you today?
Glen McIntoshSenior Asset Management
Engineer
Kristin AikenSector Manager, Local
Government
Dr Brandy GriffinPrincipal Policy Advisor
Climate Change
James Hughes
Tonkin + Taylor
Climate change contextAnd the role of long term planning
Agenda • Background and context
• Climate risk and resilience
• Role of long term planning
Climate change -It is urgent
Data
“In a 1.5°C world, the projection for 2090 is that nearly 700 million people (9% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years - but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2°C world” – IPCC (2018).
Climate change -Risks
Climate hazards
Global Risks
World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2020
Global losses (overall and insured)
Source: Munich Re
Infrastructure impacts
Is unprecedented the new normal?
• ICNZ: Mean annual loss of $150M 2013-2018
• What about uninsured?• Droughts alone cost
$720M in economic losses from 2007 to 2017
An increasing focus on climate change
Principles for long term planning
Principle 1: Factor climate risk into all decisions – using approaches and definitions that are simple and people buy into. Consider shocks and stressors.
Principle 2: Base decisions on evidence and current national guidance, supported by sound data and local knowledge
Principle 3: Cooperate and collaborate, and make sure roles & responsibilities are clear. Engage staff from all levels of the organisation
Principle 4: Prioritise stewardship / kaitiakitanga and precaution
Principle 5: Prioritise the most vulnerable
Principle 6: Long term, adaptive thinking
Principle 7: Consider actions with multiple benefits or which have ‘low-regrets’
Principles – for long term planning
“Human civilization is built on the premise that the level of the sea is stable, as indeed it has been for several thousand years”.
NY Times
Kristin Aiken
Sector Manager, Local Government
Climate change and the 2021 LTPs
Kristin Aitken, Local Government TeamOffice of the Auditor-General
• Role of the auditor, our LTP audit opinion
• Observations from our 2018 LTP audits
• Getting ready for your 2021 LTPs
• Office’s work programme: climate change and resilience, risk management
What I’ll cover
The role of audit
Our observations from the 2018 LTPs
Getting ready for 2021 LTPs
• What is your understanding of the expected effects of climate change and its impacts on council activities & communities?
• What effects and impacts are your council planning on disclosing in your 2021 LTP?
• What initiatives does your council have to collect local data and identify local impacts from climate change?
• How will you discuss climate change with your community?
• What are the challenges in discussing climate change and risk more generally with your elected members?
Some questions to consider
Our work programme – climate change and resilience, risk management
Photo by Kimberley Collins from Flickr
James Hughes + Glen McIntosh
Tonkin + Taylor
Climate change considerationsWithin infrastructure strategies
Agenda • A strategic approach to climate change and resilience
• Infrastructure strategies
• Climate risk and adaptation
• Climate mitigation
• Maturity in climate change adaptation/mitigation
A strategic approach
1 Resilience framework and policy
2 Understand resilience gaps
3 Build knowledge & evidence base
4 Implement resilience initiatives
Overall vision and outcomes
sought
Alignment with:Infra Str
Spatial planCDEM Plan
Financial Stretc
Strategy for climate resilience
Infrastructure strategies
Infrastructure strategy
The infrastructure strategy must outline how the local authority intends to manage its infrastructure assets, taking into account the need to—
(e ) provide for the resilience of infrastructure assets by identifying and managing risks relating to natural hazards and by making appropriate financial provision for those risks
Infrastructure strategy
“The concept of resilience is wider than natural disasters and covers the capacity of public, private and civic sectors to withstand disruption, absorb disturbance, act effectively in a crisis, adapt to changing conditions, including climate change, and grow over time”
(National Infrastructure Unit)
Guidance
Factoring in climate risk
Climate risks to infrastructure
Principles for a risk-based approach
• Needs to be tailored to the context− National / district or regional risk assessment
− Sectoral risk assessment (eg water sector, agricultural sector)
− Industry / corporate risk assessment – TCFD
• Recognises the influence of uncertainty
• Uses agreed and simple definitions / approaches
• Must be transparent and repeatable – based on a robust framework
• Needs to involve all stakeholders and partners
• Must be cognisant of the level of granularity which is appropriate and achievable (lessons from NCCRA)
Risk Types: Physical and transition
Risk assessment process
Physical risksComponents of risk will vary, depending on context, data available,
and level of detail of assessment. Design is key.
Likelihood of failure
Consequence = criticality
Risk
Likelihood of hazard
Vulnerability of asset
Consequence = criticality
Risk
Combined likelihood of failure / damage
RISK OF ASSET or L.O.S FAILURE
RISK OF ASSET FAILURE DUE TO HAZARD
Multiple horizons
Pathways
Risk treatment (building resilience)• Infrastructure Strategies must identify most
likely scenarios and when key decisions need to be made
• Consider range of responses
• This may include, for example – new investment, managed retreat, changes to levels of service etc
• Consider level of certainty around assumptions
• Engagement with community & Elected Members – Providing them the evidence to make good decisions while recognising uncertainty
Avoid
Land use change
Managed Retreat
Mitigate
Infra solution
Improve emergency response planning
Transfer
Insurance option
Accept
Lower L.O.S
Improve emergency response planning
Enhanced comm
resilience
Climate change mitigation
“75% of infrastructure that will exist in 2050, hasn’t been built” (Basel)
• Councils role:
• Own organisation carbon (ops and capital)
• Community emissions
World Green Building Council, 2019
Maturity
Drivers for maturity• Complexity
• Scale and criticality
• Rate of change
Maturity indices - examples
Maturity for adaptation and mitigation
PolicyHuman resources
Networks and cooperationLeadership and governance
ADAPTATIONRisk and vulnerability assessment
Adaptation planningFunding and implementation
Monitoring and review
MITIGATIONBaseline inventory & target setting
Strategy development for emissions reduction
Funding and implementationMonitoring and review
MATURITY Starting out Making progress Developed Leading
RISK ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION PLANNING
• There is no or limited understanding of infrastructure exposed to climate change.
• No understanding of risks to communities or to councils finances or reputation etc.
• Risk and vulnerability assessment framework developed and commenced.
• Risk and vulnerability assessments undertaken, high risks prioritised and options/pathways developed.
• Adaptation options are developed and implemented via appropriate channels/mechanisms.
• Risks reviewed and updated regularly.
• Community are aware and engaged in decision- making, within a robust and transparent process.
Example
Setting target maturity?
Setting target maturity?
Rate of change
Co
mp
lexi
ty o
f re
spo
nse
Mitigation
Climate change adaptation
Sea level rise adaptation
Closing comments
Closing comments -in practice
• Understand relevant climate drivers and natural hazards, what may be exposed and what risks this may present to infrastructure networks.
• Clarify roles and responsibilities.
• Review adaptation/resilience measures that you are already working on
• Integrate risk assessments with asset management planning and CDEM as the base for developing CC resilience measures.
• Become fluent in the language of carbon!
Greta Thunberg
Thank you
Dr Brandy Griffin
Principal Policy Advisor Climate Change
Incorporating climate change into
Kāpiti’s 2021 LTP
Brandy Griffin, PhD
Principal Advisor – Climate Change
Council Resolutions
On 23 May 2019, Kāpiti Cost District Council resolved-
• To achieve carbon neutrality by 2025.
• That this council, noting that our communities are facing
increasingly significant and prohibitive costs to manage
the impacts of climate change:
– Declares a climate change emergency.
• That climate crisis issues in general … be considered as
part of all future decision making, reports and
recommendations to Council.
Climate Change
Work Programme
Central government
Regional alignment
Local advocacy
Iwi partnership
Political & legal risks
Science
Land Information Memoranda
CEMARS
Operating principles
• Best practice
• Collaborative
• Consistent
• Transparent
Regional resources
Regionally consistent data
Consistency within Council
Asset
assessments
Natural
hazards
Other CC
assessmentsConsistent Data Gaps
Transport √ √ √ √
Water /
Wastewater√ √ In process √ Y
Stormwater √ √ In process √ Y
Waste √ √ In process √
PAOS √ TBD TBD TBD
Facilities /
PropertiesIn process TBD TBD TBD
Connected
CommunitiesN/A TBD TBD TBD
Transparency
Policy Work Programme
– Climate Change Strategy (working title)
– Development Management Strategy
– Coastal Strategy
– Stormwater Strategy
– Transport Strategy
– District Plan
Long Term Plan 2021
– Strategic context and
guidance
– Assumptions
– Activity Management Plans
– Infrastructure Strategy
– Financial Strategy
Next steps
• Best scenario(s)
• Further data required
• Decision making under uncertainty
• Council and community support
Q+A
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