William H. Frey The Brookings Institution Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics of the...

William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution

Hispanics and the Changing Racial Demographics

of the Intermountain West

www.frey-demographer.org

2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share of the Voter Population

“Fast-Growing” and “Slow-Growing” Purple States

Where did Minorities Win the Election for Obama?

Current Demographics and Polling in the Mountain West

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Democratic Margins by Race

-17

77

2012

-12

91

3627

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

Number of Voters: 2004, 2008millions

7.6

2.8

14.0

9.7

3.6

16.1

0

10

20

Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

22%

25%53%

Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters

Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 Supplement

Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population:

* Non Hispanics

30%

66% 4%

45%42%

13%

Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians*

21%

77%

2%

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

Turnout Rates, 2004 and 2008

60

47 45

67 65

50 48

66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

Source: Lopez and Taylor, Pew Hispanic Center, 2009

Turnout Rates, 18-29 Year Olds

50

3632

52

58

4143

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

2004-8 Growth: Eligible Voters and Voters

2.1

6.8

21.4 20.4

15.1

28.4

0.5

30.3

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

Eligible Voters Voters

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November supplements

2004 vs 2008 Comparisons

68 6576 73 79 76

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

Population Eligible Voters Voters

2004

2008

2004

2008

2004

2008

6

10

9

15

12

12

34

14

16

17

18

21

24

32

37

40

47

9

20

21

0 10 20 30 40 50

Illinois

New York

New Jersey

Colorado

Florida

Nevada

Arizona

California

Texas

New Mexico

Voters Population

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2008 supplement

Hispanic Shares 2008 Populations, Voters

States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Blue Red and Purple States, 2008

Solid Blue

Solid Red

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other

75.2

0.8

7.5

14.5

Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others*

88.5

0.8

7.81.7

Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 supplement

2008 Voter Profiles of State Groupings

* Non Hispanics

Fast Growing Purple Solid Red

72.5

1.68.3

16.1

72.9

5.1

10.7

9.8

Slow Growing Purple Solid Blue

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

“Fast-Growing” vs “Slow-Growing”

Purple State Growth, 2004-8

7.8

36.8

28.0

41.8

8.3 8.3

-1.7

12.6

-505

101520253035404550

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians,Other

Fast Growing Slow Growing

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements

Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 2008

8073

56 55

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

Nevada New Mexico

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Nevada – Democratic Margins

-3-12

73

2112

-8

89

54

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

New Mexico – Democratic Margins

-1

-13

1215

-14

39

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Whites Hispanics

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements

Florida, Virginia Voters: 2004, 2008

76 7181 74

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

VirginiaFlorida

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Florida – Democratic Margins

-5-15

73

-12

3

-14

92

15

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Virginia – Democratic Margins

-8

-36

75

6

-21

84

31

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements

Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters: 2004, 2008

86 85 89 87

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

PennsylvaniaOhio

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Ohio – Democratic Margins

-2-12

68

5

-6

95

-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS

Pennsylvania – Democratic Margins

2

-9

68

44

10

-3

90

44

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008

Source: William H. Frey

Where Minorities Won for Democrats

2004 - Kerry Took 20 States 10 states-whites went Democratic (62 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for

Dems (190 electoral college)

2008 - Obama Took 29 States 19 states-whites went

Democratic (223 electoral college) 10 states-minorities won for

Dems (142 electoral college)

Source: William H. Frey analysis

2004 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities

Source: William H. Frey analysis

2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities

2010 Population and Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity: US and Mountain West

65 73 6574

16 1024

16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Pop Eligible Voters Total Pop Eligible Voters

Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics

USA Mountain West

Total Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:

Six Mountain West States

4455 57

7384 87

4132 24 19 10 10

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NewMexico

Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho

Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics

Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:

Six Mountain West States

5367 69

81 90 92

3321 14 12 5 5

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

NewMexico

Arizona Nevada Colorado Utah Idaho

Whites Blacks Asians Others Hispanics

Party Affiliation: US Registered Latino Voters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010

Democrat Republican

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010

(Registered Latinos)

Party with More Concern for Hispanics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

y2002 y2004 y2006 y2008 y2010

Democrat Republican

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010

(Registered Latinos)

Right Direction/Wrong Track?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Whites Hispanics Whites Hispanics

Right Wrong

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Country State

(Adults.6 MT West States)

Country: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

State: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Obama Favorability

5535

11

12

8

9

2644

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults: 6 MT West States)

Obama: Favorable Minus Unfavorable

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Bush Favorability

44 51

1517

1615

25 17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults: 6 MT West States)

Palin Favorability

47 52

1824

1110

2414

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adsult: 6 MT West States)

Congressional Democrat Favorability

5737

18

23

13

17

1223

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults: 6 MT West States)

Congressional Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Congressional Republican Favorability

42 47

26 23

17 16

15 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults: 6 MT West States)

Congressional Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

State Democrat Favorability

4836

24

22

1319

15 23

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults 6 MT West States)

State Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

State Republican Favorability

34 42

2524

1716

24 18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Unfavorable Neutral/ NA Favorable Very Favorable

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

(Adults: 6 MT West States)

State Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable

Whites and Hispanics - MT West States

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Priority Issues for Whites

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

1 57% Jobs/Econ Growth

2 50% Schools

3 49% Federal Govt Spending

4 49% Illegal Immigrants

5 43% Crime and Drugs

(percent ranking issue as extremely important)

Priority Issues for Hispanics

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

1 63% Jobs/Econ Growth

2 63% Schools

3 59% Crime and Drugs

4 48% Environment

5 47% Health Care

(percent ranking issue as extremely important)

Obama Health Care Plan

5031

11

12

7

7

15

25

17 25

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Strong Oppose Oppose DK/ Ref Support Strong Support

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Financial Reform

2617

16

11

10

12

1929

29 31

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Strong Oppose Oppose DK/ Ref Support Strong Support

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Income Taxes

41 42

54 51

4 34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Too High About Right Don't Pay/ DK Too Low

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Arizona Immigration Law

18 12

50

28

29

57

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

Not Far Enough About Right Goes Too Far

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

AZ Immigration Law: Goes Too FarWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Stop Illegal Immigration FlowsFederal Involvement Level?

7768

1719

6 13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Illegal Flows: Need More Federal InvolvementWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Deal with Illegals Here: Federal Involvement Level?

7258

19

22

920

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Deal with Illegals Here: State Involvement Level?

6652

22

26

1222

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whites Hispanics

More Same/ DK Less

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Illegals Here : Need More State InvolvementWhites and Hispanics - MT West States

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Arizona Colorado Nevada New Mexico

Whites Hispanics

Immigrants: Strength vs Burden

30

42

28

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Whites HispanicsStrength Burden

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey

Illegals: Pathway vs No Amnesty

35

46

31

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Whites HispanicsPathway No Amnesty

Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey