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BRAIN WAVES
7th Annual ASU GSV Summit
April 18, 2016
Michael Moe, CFA Co-Founder, GSV @michaelmoe
2010 Mission: To Accelerate
Innova!on in Educa!on and Op!mize Impact
2010
300 A!endees
2010
35 Companies
3,000+ A!endees
350+ Companies
Sold Out 5th Year in a Row
April 2010…
iPad Released April
2010…
First UBER Ride S!ll 2
Months Away
Snapchat July, 2011
8 Billion Videos Per
Day
Series A 7 Months A"er First
Summit
2015
80 Million Nights Booked
$1.6 Billion Series E
$25 Billion Market Value
EdTech VC Investment
$550 Million
2010
Source: GSV Advisors
EdTech VC Investment
$550 Million
$2.1 Billion
2010
2015
31% CAGR
Source: GSV Advisors
Weapons of Mass Instruction
KNEWTON Founded 2008
10+ Million Students
16+ Billion Recommenda"ons
+
Pass Rates 17%
+
Source: Knewton
Dropouts 56%
+
Source: Knewton
Technology Vendors
2010
Un!tled 1
5
Technology Vendors
Today
Un!tled 1
130
5
2U Founded 2008
15+ Partners
$1+ Billion Tui"on Generated
CLASS DOJO Founded 2011
50+ Million Users
REMIND Founded 2011
35+ Million Users 3/4 U.S. Schools
CLEVER Founded 2012
20+ Million Users
2011 160,000 Students,
Stanford AI MOOC
4 Million Students
168 Countries
COURSERA Founded 2012
18+ Million Students
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
160K 1.5M
10M
18M
35M
194% CAGR
MOOC Enrollments
Map oft the colonies
United States 1800
A!endees
“As GM goes, so goes the na!on.”
— CHARLES WILSON CEO, General Motors (1953)
$0
$45
$90
$135
$180
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
GM Market Value, 1964-2009
Source: Capital IQ
Moore’s Law
2000 2015
$0.04
$7.03
Cost of Compu!ng (per MM transistors)
98% decline
Source: Deloitte
2000 2015
$0.02
$4.77
Cost of Storage (per GB)
99% decline
Source: Deloitte
Internet Access: 2000
371 Million
Internet Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Internet Access: Today
3.1 Billion 3100
371 Million
Internet Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
2000
60 Million
Broadband Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Today
2.3 Billion2300
60 Million
Broadband Access:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
2000
180 Million
PC Penetra!on:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Today
1.4 Billion 1400
180 Million
PC Penetra!on:
Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Internet Access: 2000
740 Million
Mobile Penetra!on:
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
Internet Access: Today
7 Billion 7000
740 Million
Mobile Penetra!on:
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
Smartphones: 2000
0Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
Smartphones: Today
2.6 billionSource: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)
App Downloads: 2000
0Source: Forrester
App Downloads: Today
226 billionSource: Forrester
Internet Access: 2000
9 Million
Digital Na!ves Workforce:
Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Internet Access: Today
56 Million
9 Million
Digital Na!ves Workforce:
Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management
Global Middle Class: 2000
1.4 Billion
Source: OECD
Global Middle Class: Today
2.5 Billion +80%
Source: OECD
College Educa!on (OECD): 2000
14%
Source: OECD
29% +2x
College Educa!on (OECD): Today
Source: OECD
50%+ Low Income Students 2000: 4
56%
60%
63%
51%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
50%+ Low Income Students Today: 20
55%
51%59%
50% 68%
60%
61% 61%
65%
71%
58%
51%
50%52%
53%
58%60%58%
59%
51%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
40%+ Low Income Students Today: 39
55%
51%59%
50% 68%
60%
61% 61%
65%
71%
58%
51%
50%52%
53%
58%60%58%
59%
51%
49%
45%
47%
42%
40%
44%
48% 45%
40%49%
47%40%
48%
43%
46%43%
41%
42%
40%
Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times
Low-Income Students 5x More Likely to
Drop out of High School
Source: American Psychological Association
Source: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Education Association
Dropouts 8x More Likely to
Go to Prison
Source: National Education Association
80% U.S. Prison Popula"on High School Dropouts
400
450
500
550
600
< $20K $40K - $60K $80K - $100K $120K - $140K $160K - $200K
Reading Math Wri!ng
SAT Scores and Family Income
Source: College Board
0%
19%
38%
56%
75%
No College Community College Compe!!ve Most Compe!!ve
Enrollment from Top Quar!leEnrollment from Bo#om Quar!le
Locked Out of Elite Colleges
Source: Pew Research Center
Income Quartile Graduate from CollegeTop 75%
Second 33%
Third 20%
Bottom 8%Source: Pew Research Center
70% of Poor Americans Never Make it to the Middle Class.
Move to Middle+ Stay Put
70%
30%
Source: Pew Research Center
30,000 Amazon
Warehouse Robots
350+ Million Global Manufacturing +
Warehouse Workers
Source: McKinsey, GSV Asset Management
12 Million U.S. Middle Skills Jobs
Eliminated by 2025
Source: McKinsey
$7 Trillion Managed by
Robo-Financial Advisors by 2025
Source: Deloitte
3,000+ Financial
Reports Per QuarterSource: New York Times
50% Jobs At Risk of Replacement in
20 Years
Source: The Economist, Oxford University
“Our policy is to hire as many talented computer
engineers as we can find. There aren't
enough people who have these skills today.”
— MARK ZUCKERBERG
1.2 Million Computer Science
Job Openings by 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Fortune
“Data Science — The sexiest job of the 21st
Century.”
1060
Time
Humans
Knowledge, Skills, Abili!esComputers
We Are Here
Digital Marke!ng
Visual Design
iOS + Android Development
Data Analy!cs
Cybersecurity
Killer Jobs Today… Killed Tomorrow
1967
1967
“We could be looking at a society in which
all the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.” — PAUL KRUGMAN
“The obvious conclusion is that the government will just have to
give these people money.” — SAM ALTMAN
“New disease… technological
unemployment.” — JOHN MAYNARD
KEYNES, 1930
Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most
to real wealth, good morals, and happiness.
— THOMAS JEFFERSON, 1787
Automa!on Eats Jobs
Farming
Factory
Informa!on
Knowledge
2x Increase in
GDP Per Capita
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2x Increase in
Corporate Profits
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2.5x Increase in
Labor Produc"vity
Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Median Income Stalls in 1967…
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau
…Decreases for men
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Winner Take All Economy
Value
Scale
10M Users
1.6B Users
Source: New York Times, GSV Asset Management
Value
Scale
21% Search
64% Search
Source: Yahoo Finance
Value
Scale
170M Users
1.1B Users
Source: YouTube, Vimeo
Value
Scale
$125M Revenue
$107B Revenue
Source: Yahoo Finance, Fortune
Source: Economic Policy Institute
CEO Compensa!on
$20
$5,015
$10,010
$15,005
$20,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Median Income $27K
303x
23x
Source: Forbes
Major League Baseball
$20
$1,140
$2,260
$3,380
$4,500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Median Income $27K
MLB Salary $4.3M
Inequality is the parent of revolu!on. — ARISTOTLE
Talent is equally distributed by zip
code…
but opportunity is not.
Our B.H.A.G:
Ensure that every person has an equal opportunity to par!cipate in the future.
Magic of Silicon Valley =Exponential Ideas
Auto Industry?
Annual R&D Spend:
$7.2 Billion
Source: Company Disclosures
1060Auto Innova"on
Time
Valu
e
1060Tesla = Exponen!al Innova!on
Time
Valu
e
ImagiNation
1060
Time
Valu
eCommunica!on + Collabora!on
Time
Valu
eTravel + Hospitality
Energy
Time
Valu
e
10601055105010451040103510301025102010151010105110-5
Healthcare
Time
Valu
e
Educa!on Innova!on…
Time
Valu
e
?
…Exponen!al Opportunity
OPPORTUNITY GAP
Time
Valu
e
$27 Trillion U.S. Economic Gains with Basic PISA Improvement
Source: OECD
$200+ Trillion Global Economic Gains
with Basic PISA Improvement
Source: OECD
Hollywood Meets
Harvard
1967 Super Bowl I
60,000 A!endees
Source: Wikipedia
$12 Ticket Price
Source: CBS (2016 USD)
$6 Million Avg. Team Value
Source: CBS (2016 USD)
$25,000 Avg. Salary
Source: US News & World Report
2016 Super Bowl 50
80,000 A!endees
$1,500 Ticket Price
167+ Million Remote Viewers
FREE
$5 Million Per 30-Second Ad
$360+ Million Ad Sales
$2 Billion Avg. Team Value
Source: Forbes
$2.2 Million Avg. Salary
Source: CNN
Spor"ng Event
MEDIA MODEL
Access
Quality
Value
60,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, 1967
Source: University Disclosures
80,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, Today
Source: University Disclosures
$15,000 Cost to Graduate, 1967
Source: University Disclosures
$250,000 Cost to Graduate,
TodaySource: University Disclosures
138 Million U.S. Higher Ed Gap
Source: NCES, U.S. Census Bureau
$35 Trillion Price Tag
Source: GSV Asset Management
Superbowl vs. Ivy League
1967
Valu
e
Super Bowl I
Ivy League
Superbowl vs. Ivy League
1967
Valu
eSuper
Bowl 50
Ivy League
Today
media
mEDia
magic leap
Magic Leap
AR/VR Industry
$90 Million
$5.2 Billion
2014
2018
176% CAGR
Source: Statista
Big Data
50% Programs
Watched Were Recommended
Source: Company Disclosures
50% Accuracy
Lung Cancer Diagnosis
Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), FortuneSource: IBM
90% Accuracy
Lung Cancer Diagnosis
Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), Fortune
ADAPTIVE Technology
ADAPTIVE Technology + DIAGNOSTIC
Technology =
Personal Robot Tutor
10,000 Hours of Prac"ce
Makes Perfect
Healthy
10,000 Steps
Wealthy
10,000 Dollars
Wise
10,000 Neurons
Time to Learn!
10,000 Hours Classroom Time
K-12
Source: U.S. Department of Education
10,000 Hours Video Games
K-12
Source: U.S. Department of Education
MEGAWINNERS
Enga
gem
ent
Efficacy
KaizenEDU
1/3 Babies Live to 100+
Source: United Kingdom Office of National Statistics (ONS)
Digital Natives
64% Would Work for Less than Half at a Job They Love
15+ Lifetime Careers
Job Benefits Millennials Value Most
Source: KPCB
#1 Training + Development (22%)
#2 Flexible Hours (19%)
#3 Cash Bonuses (14%)
Old System, 1900
PLAY LEARN JOB RETIRE
New System
LEARN
PLAY SCHOOL JOB JOB JOB
Adaptability
Grit
Cri!cal Thinking
Empathy
Communica!on
Entrepreneurship
Learn to Learn
Skills for an Exponen!al
Economy
Learn to Learn
Entrepreneurship
Communica!on
Empathy
Cri!cal Thinking
Grit
Adaptability
Knowledge as a
Currency
NEWS to Knowledge
Informa"on
Knowledge
Old Knowledge Currency
Knowledge Por"olio
4 Minute Mile
Impossible is not
a fact. It’s an opinion.
— MUHAMMAD ALI
Imagine what it would look like to “MIND the gap”.
Imagine what would happen if everybody
had an EQUAL OPPORTUNITY to
par"cipate in the future.
Imagine how we could use
EXPONENTIAL IDEAS applied to
this challenge.
Imagine what GREAT looks like.
DARE TO BE GREAT!!!
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