Brain Waves - 2016 ASU GSV Summit Keynote

BRAIN WAVES

7th Annual ASU GSV Summit

April 18, 2016

Michael Moe, CFA Co-Founder, GSV @michaelmoe

2010 Mission: To Accelerate

Innova!on in Educa!on and Op!mize Impact

2010

300 A!endees

2010

35 Companies

3,000+ A!endees

350+ Companies

Sold Out 5th Year in a Row

April 2010…

iPad Released April

2010…

First UBER Ride S!ll 2

Months Away

Snapchat July, 2011

8 Billion Videos Per

Day

Series A 7 Months A"er First

Summit

2015

80 Million Nights Booked

$1.6 Billion Series E

$25 Billion Market Value

EdTech VC Investment

$550 Million

2010

Source: GSV Advisors

EdTech VC Investment

$550 Million

$2.1 Billion

2010

2015

31% CAGR

Source: GSV Advisors

Weapons of Mass Instruction

KNEWTON Founded 2008

10+ Million Students

16+ Billion Recommenda"ons

+

Pass Rates 17%

+

Source: Knewton

Dropouts 56%

+

Source: Knewton

Technology Vendors

2010

Un!tled 1

5

Technology Vendors

Today

Un!tled 1

130

5

2U Founded 2008

15+ Partners

$1+ Billion Tui"on Generated

CLASS DOJO Founded 2011

50+ Million Users

REMIND Founded 2011

35+ Million Users 3/4 U.S. Schools

CLEVER Founded 2012

20+ Million Users

2011 160,000 Students,

Stanford AI MOOC

4 Million Students

168 Countries

COURSERA Founded 2012

18+ Million Students

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

160K 1.5M

10M

18M

35M

194% CAGR

MOOC Enrollments

Map oft the colonies

United States 1800

A!endees

“As GM goes, so goes the na!on.”

— CHARLES WILSON CEO, General Motors (1953)

$0

$45

$90

$135

$180

1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

GM Market Value, 1964-2009

Source: Capital IQ

Moore’s Law

2000 2015

$0.04

$7.03

Cost of Compu!ng (per MM transistors)

98% decline

Source: Deloitte

2000 2015

$0.02

$4.77

Cost of Storage (per GB)

99% decline

Source: Deloitte

Internet Access: 2000

371 Million

Internet Access:

Source: Gartner, Nielsen, A.T. Kearney, eMarketer, KPCB, GSV Asset Management

Internet Access: Today

3.1 Billion 3100

371 Million

Internet Access:


2000

60 Million

Broadband Access:


Today

2.3 Billion2300

60 Million

Broadband Access:


2000

180 Million

PC Penetra!on:


Today

1.4 Billion 1400

180 Million

PC Penetra!on:



740 Million

Mobile Penetra!on:

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)


7 Billion 7000

740 Million

Mobile Penetra!on:

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)

Smartphones: 2000

0Source: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)

Smartphones: Today

2.6 billionSource: Ericsson Mobility Report (2015)

App Downloads: 2000

0Source: Forrester

App Downloads: Today

226 billionSource: Forrester


9 Million

Digital Na!ves Workforce:

Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management


56 Million

9 Million

Digital Na!ves Workforce:

Source: KPCB, GSV Asset Management

Global Middle Class: 2000

1.4 Billion

Source: OECD

Global Middle Class: Today

2.5 Billion +80%

Source: OECD

College Educa!on (OECD): 2000

14%

Source: OECD

29% +2x

College Educa!on (OECD): Today

Source: OECD

50%+ Low Income Students 2000: 4

56%

60%

63%

51%

Source: The Atlantic, Southern Education Foundation, New York Times

50%+ Low Income Students Today: 20

55%

51%59%

50% 68%

60%

61% 61%

65%

71%

58%

51%

50%52%

53%

58%60%58%

59%

51%


40%+ Low Income Students Today: 39

55%

51%59%

50% 68%

60%

61% 61%

65%

71%

58%

51%

50%52%

53%

58%60%58%

59%

51%

49%

45%

47%

42%

40%

44%

48% 45%

40%49%

47%40%

48%

43%

46%43%

41%

42%

40%


Low-Income Students 5x More Likely to

Drop out of High School

Source: American Psychological Association

Source: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Education Association

Dropouts 8x More Likely to

Go to Prison

Source: National Education Association

80% U.S. Prison Popula"on High School Dropouts

400

450

500

550

600

< $20K $40K - $60K $80K - $100K $120K - $140K $160K - $200K

Reading Math Wri!ng

SAT Scores and Family Income

Source: College Board

0%

19%

38%

56%

75%

No College Community College Compe!!ve Most Compe!!ve

Enrollment from Top Quar!leEnrollment from Bo#om Quar!le

Locked Out of Elite Colleges

Source: Pew Research Center

Income Quartile Graduate from CollegeTop 75%

Second 33%

Third 20%

Bottom 8%Source: Pew Research Center

70% of Poor Americans Never Make it to the Middle Class.

Move to Middle+ Stay Put

70%

30%

Source: Pew Research Center

30,000 Amazon

Warehouse Robots

350+ Million Global Manufacturing +

Warehouse Workers

Source: McKinsey, GSV Asset Management

12 Million U.S. Middle Skills Jobs

Eliminated by 2025

Source: McKinsey

$7 Trillion Managed by

Robo-Financial Advisors by 2025

Source: Deloitte

3,000+ Financial

Reports Per QuarterSource: New York Times

50% Jobs At Risk of Replacement in

20 Years

Source: The Economist, Oxford University

“Our policy is to hire as many talented computer

engineers as we can find. There aren't

enough people who have these skills today.”

— MARK ZUCKERBERG

1.2 Million Computer Science

Job Openings by 2020

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Fortune

“Data Science — The sexiest job of the 21st

Century.”

1060

Time

Humans

Knowledge, Skills, Abili!esComputers

We Are Here

Digital Marke!ng

Visual Design

iOS + Android Development

Data Analy!cs

Cybersecurity

Killer Jobs Today… Killed Tomorrow

1967

1967

“We could be looking at a society in which

all the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.” — PAUL KRUGMAN

“The obvious conclusion is that the government will just have to

give these people money.” — SAM ALTMAN

“New disease… technological

unemployment.” — JOHN MAYNARD

KEYNES, 1930

Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most

to real wealth, good morals, and happiness.

— THOMAS JEFFERSON, 1787

Automa!on Eats Jobs

Farming

Factory

Informa!on

Knowledge

2x Increase in

GDP Per Capita

Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2x Increase in

Corporate Profits


2.5x Increase in

Labor Produc"vity


Median Income Stalls in 1967…

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau

…Decreases for men

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Winner Take All Economy

Value

Scale

10M Users

1.6B Users

Source: New York Times, GSV Asset Management

Value

Scale

21% Search

64% Search

Source: Yahoo Finance

Value

Scale

170M Users

1.1B Users

Source: YouTube, Vimeo

Value

Scale

$125M Revenue

$107B Revenue

Source: Yahoo Finance, Fortune

Source: Economic Policy Institute

CEO Compensa!on

$20

$5,015

$10,010

$15,005

$20,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Median Income $27K

303x

23x

Source: Forbes

Major League Baseball

$20

$1,140

$2,260

$3,380

$4,500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Median Income $27K

MLB Salary $4.3M

Inequality is the parent of revolu!on. — ARISTOTLE

Talent is equally distributed by zip

code…

but opportunity is not.

Our B.H.A.G:

Ensure that every person has an equal opportunity to par!cipate in the future.

Magic of Silicon Valley =Exponential Ideas

Auto Industry?

Annual R&D Spend:

$7.2 Billion

Source: Company Disclosures

1060Auto Innova"on

Time

Valu

e

1060Tesla = Exponen!al Innova!on

Time

Valu

e

ImagiNation

1060

Time

Valu

eCommunica!on + Collabora!on

Time

Valu

eTravel + Hospitality

Energy

Time

Valu

e

10601055105010451040103510301025102010151010105110-5

Healthcare

Time

Valu

e

Educa!on Innova!on…

Time

Valu

e

?

…Exponen!al Opportunity

OPPORTUNITY GAP

Time

Valu

e

$27 Trillion U.S. Economic Gains with Basic PISA Improvement

Source: OECD

$200+ Trillion Global Economic Gains

with Basic PISA Improvement

Source: OECD

Hollywood Meets

Harvard

1967 Super Bowl I

60,000 A!endees

Source: Wikipedia

$12 Ticket Price

Source: CBS (2016 USD)

$6 Million Avg. Team Value

Source: CBS (2016 USD)

$25,000 Avg. Salary

Source: US News & World Report

2016 Super Bowl 50

80,000 A!endees

$1,500 Ticket Price

167+ Million Remote Viewers

FREE

$5 Million Per 30-Second Ad

$360+ Million Ad Sales

$2 Billion Avg. Team Value

Source: Forbes

$2.2 Million Avg. Salary

Source: CNN

Spor"ng Event

MEDIA MODEL

Access

Quality

Value

60,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, 1967

Source: University Disclosures

80,000 Ivy+ Enrollment, Today


$15,000 Cost to Graduate, 1967


$250,000 Cost to Graduate,

TodaySource: University Disclosures

138 Million U.S. Higher Ed Gap

Source: NCES, U.S. Census Bureau

$35 Trillion Price Tag

Source: GSV Asset Management

Superbowl vs. Ivy League

1967

Valu

e

Super Bowl I

Ivy League

Superbowl vs. Ivy League

1967

Valu

eSuper

Bowl 50

Ivy League

Today

media

mEDia

magic leap

Magic Leap

AR/VR Industry

$90 Million

$5.2 Billion

2014

2018

176% CAGR

Source: Statista

Big Data

50% Programs

Watched Were Recommended

Source: Company Disclosures

50% Accuracy

Lung Cancer Diagnosis

Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), FortuneSource: IBM

90% Accuracy

Lung Cancer Diagnosis

Source: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Klaus Schwab), Fortune

ADAPTIVE Technology

ADAPTIVE Technology + DIAGNOSTIC

Technology =

Personal Robot Tutor

10,000 Hours of Prac"ce

Makes Perfect

Healthy

10,000 Steps

Wealthy

10,000 Dollars

Wise

10,000 Neurons

Time to Learn!

10,000 Hours Classroom Time

K-12

Source: U.S. Department of Education

10,000 Hours Video Games

K-12

Source: U.S. Department of Education

MEGAWINNERS

Enga

gem

ent

Efficacy

KaizenEDU

1/3 Babies Live to 100+

Source: United Kingdom Office of National Statistics (ONS)

Digital Natives

64% Would Work for Less than Half at a Job They Love

15+ Lifetime Careers

Job Benefits Millennials Value Most

Source: KPCB

#1 Training + Development (22%)

#2 Flexible Hours (19%)

#3 Cash Bonuses (14%)

Old System, 1900

PLAY LEARN JOB RETIRE

New System

LEARN

PLAY SCHOOL JOB JOB JOB

Adaptability

Grit

Cri!cal Thinking

Empathy

Communica!on

Entrepreneurship

Learn to Learn

Skills for an Exponen!al

Economy

Learn to Learn

Entrepreneurship

Communica!on

Empathy

Cri!cal Thinking

Grit

Adaptability

Knowledge as a

Currency

NEWS to Knowledge

Informa"on

Knowledge

Old Knowledge Currency

Knowledge Por"olio

4 Minute Mile

Impossible is not

a fact. It’s an opinion.

— MUHAMMAD ALI

Imagine what it would look like to “MIND the gap”.

Imagine what would happen if everybody

had an EQUAL OPPORTUNITY to

par"cipate in the future.

Imagine how we could use

EXPONENTIAL IDEAS applied to

this challenge.

Imagine what GREAT looks like.

DARE TO BE GREAT!!!