Public lecture slide presentation (1.9.2014) Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo one year on: what have we...

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Japan’s politics will likely enter the New Years in a highly enervated state. Effort to sell the Official Secrets Act floundered, requiring humiliating negotiations with the opposition ending in a dictatorial denouement to screams of protest. The Supreme Court declared the map of electoral districts crafted to defeat constitutional challenge unfair -- guaranteeing continued strife over the issue. Meanwhile, another set of cases challenging the constitutionality of the House of Councillors election wend their way to the Supreme Court. Relations with China and South Korea are at their lowest ebb in memory, with China pursuing what seems an inexorable escalation toward open conflict. Should the Prime Minister make good on hints in the direction of a visit to Yasukuni, the publics of South Korea and China will erupt. As for a revival of the economy, median incomes need to rise, meaning the corporate sector has to be more adventurous and generous. For international investors to continue to have faith in Abenomics, they must see meaningful Third Arrow structural reforms. With the Administration’s recent all-consuming focus on security, the economic program seems to have been relegated to the back burner. The Abe Administration has nevertheless had a remarkable run of good fortune and smart decisions. It has reason to feel proud of itself and its leaders still exude a stunning sense of confidence. What are the Abe Cabinet’s and ruling party’s plans for 2014? Will they have a have the political momentum and maintain the internal cohesion necessary to achieve them in a meaningful way?

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Abe Shinzo One Year On: What Have We Learned?

Michael CucekResearch Associate, MIT Center of International StudiesAdjunct Fellow, TUJ - ICAS

“Abe and the LDP: A New Era of Stability?”

( 28 February 2013 )

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

64 6466 66 65

62

57 5759 58

60

50

Obuchi

Mori

Koizumi

Abe 1

Fukuda

Aso

Ha-toyama

Kan

Noda

Abe 2

Linear (Abe 2)

Number of months post-inaguration

NHK Cabinet Support Ratings

%

Special Designated Secrets Act

12月

1月

2月

3月

4月

5月

6月

7月

8月

9月

10月

11月

12月

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

LDP

DPJ

JRP

New Komeito

Your Party

Life

Communist

Socialist

Don't know/Cannot say

20132012

NHK Party Support Ratings

%

“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong

• Reversal of Market Sentiment

• Scandals

• International Incident

• Internal Dissension

• Policy Overreach

( 28 February 2013 )

Nikkei 225 Index

Abe Shinzo elected president of the LDP

Images courtesy: Prime Minister’s Residence homepage

Yen vs. Dollar vs. Euro vs. Dollar

Abe Shinzo elected president of the LDP

Image courtesy: Tsuchiya Atsushi

Foot In Mouth Disease

May 2013 JRP Co-leader Hashimoto Toru says “comfort women” were necessary for calming hopped up soldiers and suggests that U.S. personnel on Okinawa become regular patrons of Okinawan sexuals services establishments

July 2013 Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso Taro muses to a revisionist audience about a supposed quiet demise of the liberal Weimar Constitution and wonders “Is there not something we could learn from the experience”?

Image courtesy: Tokyo Shimbun

The Immaculate Deflection

Tokuda TakeshiLDP, Kagoshima District #2

Inose NaokiGovernor, Tokyo Metropolitan District

Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun

Image courtesy: Sankei Biz

International Incident

23 November 23, 2013

China ADIZ announcement

Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun Image courtesy: The New York Times

1 January 2014Chinese balloonist attempts landing on Senkakus, ditches.JCG, China Coast Guard and

Taiwanese authorities cooperate to save and

repatriate him

“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong

• Reversal of Market Sentiment

• Scandals

• International Incident

• Internal Dissension

• Policy Overreach

( 28 February 2013 )

“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Right

• A Moribund DPJ

• A By-passed JRP

• Proper policy mix

• The Third Way

( 28 February 2013 )

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

Oops, I Did It Again

April 23, 2013

Abe stumbles through Maruyama Katsuya’s questions regarding implications of “escape from the postwar regime” and the “misaken policies” clause in the Maruyama Statement

Screen capture courtesy: House of Councillors Television

Oops, I Did It Again…Again

Heisei Emperor and EmpressFirst Official Sovereignty Day Ceremony

April 28, 2013

Oops, I Did It Again…Again…Again

Prime Minister Abe Shinzo wearing jersey # 96Ceremony Bestowing People’s Honor Awards on Nagashima Shigeo and Matsui Hideki

6 May 2013

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

“What Have We Learned?”

• Ability to Work A Calendar

• Theatricality

• Ability To Reverse

• Patience

• Performance

• Brutality

The Tyranny Of The Numbers

LDP293

New Komeito31

DPJ56

Yui7

Communist8

People's Life7

Socialist2

Independents14

JRP53

Your Party9

House of Representatives – The Parties

Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320

LDP114

New Komeito20

DPJ58

Yui6

Communist11

People's Life2

Socialist3

New Renaissance3

Independents4

JRP9 Your Party

12

House of Councillors – The Parties

Number of seats needed for majority = 122

LDP114

New Komeito20

DPJ58

Yui6

Communist11

People's Life2

Socialist3

New Renaissance3

Independents4

JRP9 Your Party

12

House of Councillors – The Ruling Coalition

Number of seats needed for majority = 122

The RulingLDP-NK

“Hawks and Doves”Coalition

134 seats

LDP114

New Komeito20

DPJ58

Yui6

Communist11

People's Life2

Socialist3

New Renaissance3

Independents4

JRP9 Your Party

12

House of Councillors – The New Ruling Coalition?

Number of seats needed for majority = 122

The New RulingLDP-JRP-Your Party

“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”Coalition?

135 seats

LDP293

New Komeito31

DPJ56

Yui7

Communist8

People's Life7

Socialist2

Independents14

JRP53

Your Party9

House of Representatives – The Ruling Coalition

Current RulingLDP-NK

“Hawks and Doves”Coalition

324 seats

Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320

LDP293

New Komeito31

DPJ56

Yui7

Communist8

People's Life7

Socialist2

Independents14

JRP53

Your Party9

House of Representatives – The New Ruling Coalition?

Future RulingLDP-JRP-Your Party

“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”Coalition?

357 seats

Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320

What Have We Learned?

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE

http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/

Michael Thomas Cucek

shisakublog@gmail.com

Thanks.

Special thanks to Robert Dujarric and the Institute of Contemporary Asia Studies, Temple University Japan.

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