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Japan’s politics will likely enter the New Years in a highly enervated state. Effort to sell the Official Secrets Act floundered, requiring humiliating negotiations with the opposition ending in a dictatorial denouement to screams of protest. The Supreme Court declared the map of electoral districts crafted to defeat constitutional challenge unfair -- guaranteeing continued strife over the issue. Meanwhile, another set of cases challenging the constitutionality of the House of Councillors election wend their way to the Supreme Court. Relations with China and South Korea are at their lowest ebb in memory, with China pursuing what seems an inexorable escalation toward open conflict. Should the Prime Minister make good on hints in the direction of a visit to Yasukuni, the publics of South Korea and China will erupt. As for a revival of the economy, median incomes need to rise, meaning the corporate sector has to be more adventurous and generous. For international investors to continue to have faith in Abenomics, they must see meaningful Third Arrow structural reforms. With the Administration’s recent all-consuming focus on security, the economic program seems to have been relegated to the back burner. The Abe Administration has nevertheless had a remarkable run of good fortune and smart decisions. It has reason to feel proud of itself and its leaders still exude a stunning sense of confidence. What are the Abe Cabinet’s and ruling party’s plans for 2014? Will they have a have the political momentum and maintain the internal cohesion necessary to achieve them in a meaningful way?
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Abe Shinzo One Year On: What Have We Learned?
Michael CucekResearch Associate, MIT Center of International StudiesAdjunct Fellow, TUJ - ICAS
“Abe and the LDP: A New Era of Stability?”
( 28 February 2013 )
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
64 6466 66 65
62
57 5759 58
60
50
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Ha-toyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2
Linear (Abe 2)
Number of months post-inaguration
NHK Cabinet Support Ratings
%
Special Designated Secrets Act
12月
1月
2月
3月
4月
5月
6月
7月
8月
9月
10月
11月
12月
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
LDP
DPJ
JRP
New Komeito
Your Party
Life
Communist
Socialist
Don't know/Cannot say
20132012
NHK Party Support Ratings
%
“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International Incident
• Internal Dissension
• Policy Overreach
( 28 February 2013 )
Nikkei 225 Index
Abe Shinzo elected president of the LDP
Images courtesy: Prime Minister’s Residence homepage
Yen vs. Dollar vs. Euro vs. Dollar
Abe Shinzo elected president of the LDP
Image courtesy: Tsuchiya Atsushi
Foot In Mouth Disease
May 2013 JRP Co-leader Hashimoto Toru says “comfort women” were necessary for calming hopped up soldiers and suggests that U.S. personnel on Okinawa become regular patrons of Okinawan sexuals services establishments
July 2013 Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso Taro muses to a revisionist audience about a supposed quiet demise of the liberal Weimar Constitution and wonders “Is there not something we could learn from the experience”?
Image courtesy: Tokyo Shimbun
The Immaculate Deflection
Tokuda TakeshiLDP, Kagoshima District #２
Inose NaokiGovernor, Tokyo Metropolitan District
Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun
Image courtesy: Sankei Biz
International Incident
23 November 23, 2013
China ADIZ announcement
Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun Image courtesy: The New York Times
1 January 2014Chinese balloonist attempts landing on Senkakus, ditches.JCG, China Coast Guard and
Taiwanese authorities cooperate to save and
repatriate him
“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International Incident
• Internal Dissension
• Policy Overreach
( 28 February 2013 )
“A New Era of Stability?” – What Could Go Right
• A Moribund DPJ
• A By-passed JRP
• Proper policy mix
• The Third Way
( 28 February 2013 )
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
Oops, I Did It Again
April 23, 2013
Abe stumbles through Maruyama Katsuya’s questions regarding implications of “escape from the postwar regime” and the “misaken policies” clause in the Maruyama Statement
Screen capture courtesy: House of Councillors Television
Oops, I Did It Again…Again
Heisei Emperor and EmpressFirst Official Sovereignty Day Ceremony
April 28, 2013
Oops, I Did It Again…Again…Again
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo wearing jersey # 96Ceremony Bestowing People’s Honor Awards on Nagashima Shigeo and Matsui Hideki
6 May 2013
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
“What Have We Learned?”
• Ability to Work A Calendar
• Theatricality
• Ability To Reverse
• Patience
• Performance
• Brutality
The Tyranny Of The Numbers
LDP293
New Komeito31
DPJ56
Yui7
Communist8
People's Life7
Socialist2
Independents14
JRP53
Your Party9
House of Representatives – The Parties
Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320
LDP114
New Komeito20
DPJ58
Yui6
Communist11
People's Life2
Socialist3
New Renaissance3
Independents4
JRP9 Your Party
12
House of Councillors – The Parties
Number of seats needed for majority = 122
LDP114
New Komeito20
DPJ58
Yui6
Communist11
People's Life2
Socialist3
New Renaissance3
Independents4
JRP9 Your Party
12
House of Councillors – The Ruling Coalition
Number of seats needed for majority = 122
The RulingLDP-NK
“Hawks and Doves”Coalition
134 seats
LDP114
New Komeito20
DPJ58
Yui6
Communist11
People's Life2
Socialist3
New Renaissance3
Independents4
JRP9 Your Party
12
House of Councillors – The New Ruling Coalition?
Number of seats needed for majority = 122
The New RulingLDP-JRP-Your Party
“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”Coalition?
135 seats
LDP293
New Komeito31
DPJ56
Yui7
Communist8
People's Life7
Socialist2
Independents14
JRP53
Your Party9
House of Representatives – The Ruling Coalition
Current RulingLDP-NK
“Hawks and Doves”Coalition
324 seats
Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320
LDP293
New Komeito31
DPJ56
Yui7
Communist8
People's Life7
Socialist2
Independents14
JRP53
Your Party9
House of Representatives – The New Ruling Coalition?
Future RulingLDP-JRP-Your Party
“Hawks, Hawks, Hawks”Coalition?
357 seats
Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320
What Have We Learned?
RESISTANCE IS FUTILE
http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/
Michael Thomas Cucek
Thanks.
Special thanks to Robert Dujarric and the Institute of Contemporary Asia Studies, Temple University Japan.
