Houston Spring 2016 : Crowdsourcing Blockchain Scenarios

Stitching Scenarios

from Distributed FragmentsCrowdsourcing

Blockchain Futureshttp://bit.ly/1TYiuhH

Dr Wendy L Schultz16 April 2016

So. Blockchain. What’s that all about?

Blockchain – the basics

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/how-will-blockchain-technology-transform-financial-services/

William Mougayer, “Understanding the blockchain”, https://www.oreilly.com/ideas/understanding-the-blockchain

So. Blockchain. What’s that all about?

John Lanchester, “When Bitcoin Grows Up”, http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/john-lanchester/when-bitcoin-grows-up

Scenarios – uses + creation methods

Narratives

Causal Layered AnalysisScenario ArchetypesOrganisational Story-telling

AxesDeductive Scenarios: Uncertainties as Logics, Change-Theory-Driven

Tables

Scenario Parameter MatrixFAR Futures Table

Morphological AnalysisManoa ScenariosSystems-based

Conn

ecto

rs

Competition: Ambient Images of Futures

Set of all images of the future:impossible, possible, probable,

preferable

dystopias

visionsscenarios:downside

scenarios:PTE

(present trends extended)

scenarios: upside

utopiasnightmares

Images of the future are present inreligions, political ideologies, art,

movies,television, novels, stories, advertising –

and research

Business scenario use rarely takes competition

for the narrative space into account

Business scenario use rarely takes competition

for the narrative space into account

Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures”

+ Natural England

Archetypes, eg Manoa “Four Futures”

+ Natural England

THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORKSharpe, Hodgson, Curry

Waves of Ambient Futures

How to collect ambient futures?

How to collect ambient futures?

Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building

Mosaic or ‘quilt’ scenario building

Examples:IRAHSS transport, Grexit, blockchain

Blockchain futures narratives collector – the invitation to share on Sensemaker

Sensemaker intro page:http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh

http://merlion.sensemaker-suite.com/Collector/collector.gsp?

projectID=BlockchainFutures&language=en#Collector

Side benefit – operationalising Gartner’s ‘hype cycle’

RTs/scenarios > 1 = hypeRTs/scenarios < 1 = increasing maturity

So I’ll do it my own damn self.

… but all y’all are my only hope.

Contribute a mini-scenario yourself:http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh

or get Sensemaker Collector (red) appon Google or IOS app store,use activity code “blockchain”

Blockchain future applications –generating possibilities with Verge

Verge General Practice

Framework for Futures

Studies and Foresight

How might any of these people use blockchain?

DEFINEOpinion leaders in the news; scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revolutionaires

RELATE Businesses; unions; NGOs; international agencies; government agencies; families

CONNECT News sources; media organizations; celebrities; artists, musicians, poets, designers; IT experts

CREATE Investors; manufacturers; farmers; educators; inventors

CONSUME Retail shoppers; food and restaurant patrons; house owners; movie and book fans

DESTROYGarbage collectors, recyclers; vandals, terrorists; grey market and black market participants

Enter your stories now!http://bit.ly/1IbXSJh

Keep those stories coming – add as many as you like, as ideas about the evolving future of blockchain emerge.

Article on ‘blockchain futures’via Sensemaker Collectorby 30 April 2016

any questions?wendy@infinitefutures.com