Eric Seufert - 5 Mobile Gaming Trends 2015 - PwC Outlook Conference October 2014

5 Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 (and beyond)

Eric SeufertPwC Outlook Conference, Amsterdam

October 9, 2014

Who am I?

Who am I?

Freemium Economics

Who am I?

Freemium Economics

Head of Marketing at Wooga

Who am I?

Freemium Economics

Head of Marketing at Wooga

Mobile Dev Memo

Where are we now?

Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /

iPhone) published by 2 devs

Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014

Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /

iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are

games

Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014

Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /

iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are

games• 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first

published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013)

Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014

Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /

iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are

games• 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first

published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013)

• Supercell (Clash of Clans, Hay Day) and King (Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga) spend (reportedly) $1MM per day on marketing*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/brand-advertising-mobile-cpi-prices/Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014

Where are we now?Four companies own apps that generate 70% of the unique visitors to the Top 25 mobile apps*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/

Where are we now?Most smartphone users download 0 new apps per month*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/

Where are we now?Nearly half of all time spent in mobile apps is devoted to users’ single favorite apps*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/

Where are we now?Brand advertisers are spending just 20% of their budgets on mobile now and will increase that share to 35% by 2018*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/

Where are we now?VC funding into the gaming sector is down by 6% in H1 2014 against the 2013 run rate*

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/

Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*

*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801

Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*

*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801

Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*

*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801

Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*

*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801

Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*

*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801

“ “

-- Facebook 10Q, Q2 2014

But…it’s not all bad.

But…it’s not all bad.Mobile is growing:

China USA UK Japan Brazil India Others Total0.00

200.00400.00600.00800.00

1,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.00

Smartphone Shipments, 2013 vs. 2017

2013 Shipments2017 Shipments

Source: IDC

But…it’s not all bad.Mobile gaming is growing:

Source: Gartner

2012 2013 2014 2015 $-

$5.000

$10.000

$15.000

$20.000

$25.000

$9.280

$13.208

$17.146

$22.009

Mobile Gaming Revenues ($BB), Worldwide

But…it’s not all bad.Consumers have come to terms with mobile ads:

Source: xAd / Telmetrics

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

• Infrastructure of mobile advertising ecosystem designed for mobile gaming. New verticals are beginning to shift into mobile advertising• Brand money;• Travel (20% YoY increase in mobile travel bookings H1

2013-2014*).

*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

• Retargeting and deep-linking allow for better and more natural ad formats than traditional mobile app install ad:

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

• Native ads are less intrusive and context-aware:

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

• Imaginative new ad formats will obfuscate / abstract away the advertising dynamic:• TinyLoot: paying users to watch ads and engage with new

apps;• LoopMe: users rate ads and only see ad types they enjoy.

Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

Top 10 Downloaded Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp

(#14)

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp

(#14)• 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google

• YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16)

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp

(#14)• 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google

• YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16)• 5 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by companies that can move users into

mobile from their massive existing user bases• Pandora• Pinterest• Spotify• Twitter• iTunes U

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart

• Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation”

“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation

• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart

• Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation”• Eg. Facebook raised number of downloads needed to

reach #1 with messenger. Previous amount of downloads needed only reaches #2 now.

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

Increasing overall monetization

Increasing overall monetization

• Tablet shipments are slipping:

Source: Monthly TFT LCD Shipment Database

Increasing overall monetization

• Meanwhile, “phablet” shipments are rising and may overtake both smartphone and tablet shipments

Source: BI Intelligence

Increasing overall monetization• This is a good thing for app developers; users spend more

money on bigger screens.

Source: Distimo

Increasing overall monetization• Meanwhile, CPMs are trending up…which means more

revenue from ads.

Source: Fiksu

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

Increasing Platform “Lock In”

Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked

into proprietary tool chain

• Apple’s upcoming iTunes analytics suite

Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked

into proprietary tool chain

• Facebook’s Parse + Audience Network + Atlas

Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked

into proprietary tool chain

• Twitter analytics + app developmentplatform (Fabric)

Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond

1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position

inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins

More Franchise Tie-ins

More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize

devs to partner with existing, well-known IP

More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize

devs to partner with existing, well-known IP

More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize

devs to partner with existing, well-known IP

More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize

devs to partner with existing, well-known IP

More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize

devs to partner with existing, well-known IP

Thanks!

• eric@mobiledevmemo.com

• Mobiledevmemo.com

• Twitter.com/eric_seufert