California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strategies

California CD21 Immigration

SurveyOctober 7th – 8th, 2013

Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results of a 573n

autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election

voters in California Congressional District 21. The survey was commissioned on behalf of America’s Voice. The interviewing was conducted October 7th - 8th, 2013. This

survey has a margin of error of +/-4.09% at the 95 percent

confidence interval.

Democrats in Congress Image

Rating

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

38%

51%

11%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

36% 40%

54%48%

11% 12%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

44%

41% 43%35%

32%36%

48% 48%

55%58%

20%11%

9% 10% 10%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

38%

51%

11%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

8%

66%

28%

83%

21%

58%

9% 14% 14%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

27%

45%

65%

39%

7% 16%

Republicans in Congress Image

Rating

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

35%

52%

13%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

MEN WOMAN

39%31%

49%55%

12% 15%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

31% 32% 32% 33%

42%

48%

64%

53%51% 49%

21%

4%

15% 16%9%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

35%

52%

13%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

66%

12%21%

25%

73%

56%

8% 15%23%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

47%

25%

47%55%

6%

19%

Voter Opinion on Immigration

Reform

Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status.  If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation?

77%

18% 5%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

MEN WOMAN

50%45%

29% 30%

5% 8%11% 12%

5% 6%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORTSTRONGLY OPPOSE SOMEWHAT OPPOSEUNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

54% 51% 50%

43% 44%

27% 26%22%

33% 34%

3% 5% 5%9%

7%8%

12%19%

7%

12%

9% 5% 4%7%

2%

Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status.  If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation?

77%

18% 5%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

41%

56%

37%34%

25%32%

8% 5% 4%

14%9% 14%

3% 6% 12%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORTSTRONGLY OPPOSE SOMEWHAT OPPOSEUNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

42%

54%

35%

24%

5% 6%13% 10%

5% 6%

Voter Opinion on Bi-Partisan

Immigration Reform

If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

57%

17%

24%

2%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

33%

25%26%30%

5% 7%

13%9%

22%26%

2% 2%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

23%

33%

25%

29%

33%

26%

22%

29%30%

29%

7%8%

4%

8%

5%

9%

7%8%

11%16%

33% 30% 32%

18%16%

2% 1%4%

2%

If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

57%

17%

24%

2%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

33%

26%27%30% 28%

22%

4%7% 8%

10% 12% 13%

22%25% 26%

1% 2% 4%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

31%

27%30%

26%

5% 7%

12%10%

20%

27%

2% 2%

Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

61%

20%

16%

3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

38%

29%

23%

32%

9% 8%14%

9%

15% 18%

2% 4%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

32%

42%

35%31%

33%

27%23%

21%

31% 30%

6%6%

10%

12%

7%5%

9%12%

11%

15%

25%

17%

22%

11% 12%

6%3% 4% 2%

Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

61%

20%

16%

3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

22%

45%

28%33%

24%22%

13%

6% 2%13% 8%

19%15% 15%

23%

3% 2%6%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE

MUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

29%

36%

29% 27%

10% 7%

14%9%

16% 17%

3% 4%

Voter Opinion on Immigration

Reform

Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship?

69%

25% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

MEN WOMAN

43%40%

24%

32%

14% 11%15%

11%5% 6%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT

STRONGLY OPPOSE SOMEWHAT OPPOSE

UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38%41%

43%45%

40%

25%

33%

21%

31%29%

12%

16%15%

9%

12%

19%

7%

14% 11%13%

7%3%

8%4% 5%

Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship?

69%

25% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

44%41%

34%30%

26% 29%

9%

15% 14%11%12%

17%

5% 6% 5%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT

STRONGLY OPPOSE SOMEWHAT OPPOSE

UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

43%

38%

28% 29%

12% 13%13% 13%

5% 6%

Voter Opinion on Valadao Support

for Reform

If your Congressman David Valadao sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for David Valadao or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for David Valadao ?

MEN WOMAN

41%35%

21% 24%

35% 35%

3% 6%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

35%

43%

32%

45%

36%

25%22%

28%

18%

22%

35%32%

38%

33%35%

5% 4% 2% 4% 7%

38%

23%

35%4%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

If your Congressman David Valadao sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for David Valadao or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for David Valadao ?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

43%

34%37%

15%

28% 27%

37%33% 35%

5% 5% 1%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

42%

32%

19%

27%

34%36%

5% 5%

38%

23%

35%4%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

Voter Opinion on Speaker Boehner

Allowing a Vote on Immigration

Reform

As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship.However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan?

50%

34%

16%

VOTE NOWHOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

51%48%

40%29%

9%

23%

VOTE NOW HOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

56% 57%

48% 47% 47%

40% 37% 34% 33% 32%

4% 5%

19% 20% 22%

As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship.However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan?

50%

34%

16%

VOTE NOWHOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

41%

57%

49%44%

25%36%

15% 17% 15%

VOTE NOW HOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

50% 49%

33%36%

17%14%

Demographics

Demographics

52%

48%

Female Male

40%

47%

13%

Republican Democrat Independent

White Hispanic Black Asian Other Refused

43%49%

3%2% 2% 1%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Refused

16%13%

18%

22%

30%

1%