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Walks through our 35 year history of energy policy and funding, and on part of our solution
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Energy:
Then, Now, Soon
Glenn Rambach
How does all our energy flow through
the United States to move our vehicles,
heat our homes and run our industry?
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Energy sources
for USA
(97 Q total)
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Energy sources
for USA
(97 Q total)
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Energy’s
destiny
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
So, what silver bullet will solve all this?
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
Import reduction with all ICE hybrid vehiclesImport reduction with 50% H2 fuel cell vehicles
1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTU = 1015 BTU
There is NO silver bullet that will solve our energy security problems
and satisfy this level of complexity in our nation’s network of energy
flows. There ARE individual solutions that, in aggregate will solve
all our problems.
U.S. Energy Flow Trends – 2002
Net Primary Resource Consumption ~ 97 Quads
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
. . . . . . . . Oh really?
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
Time Distance
From Goal
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Big, National, Goal-Driven Programs
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
The Moon
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Distance From Goal
Goal:
The Moon
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal:
The Moon
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Project Mercury
Project Gemini
Project ApolloApollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Project Mercury
Project Gemini
Project Apollo
Apollo11Lunar LandingTime: 8 yearsCost: $114B (2006$)
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Project Mercury
Project Gemini
Project Apollo
Apollo11Lunar LandingTime: 8 yearsCost: $114B (2006$)
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
$10 B
$20 B
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Project Mercury
Project Gemini
Project Apollo
Apollo11Lunar LandingTime: 8 yearsCost: $114B (2006$)
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
19
61
19
69
$10 B
$20 B
Cost from 1961
Through Apollo 11
Mission (2006$)
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
First US manned sub-orbital flight, 1961
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Project Mercury
Project Gemini
Project Apollo
Apollo11Lunar LandingTime: 8 yearsCost: $114B (2006$)
Apollo Program
Announced May 25, 1961
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
Distance From Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
$2 B
$4 B
$6 B
Fed Budgets (Political Will) for All Energy Development, 1973 - 1997
$0
2007 DOE
Energy Budget
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
Budgets are a true
measure of priorities $10 B
$20 B
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
1974
1978
1980
19
82
1986
1990
1994
Fission
Fossil
Renewable
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:
We’ve spent
• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and
• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are
• Twice as far from goal than at beginning
“We Need an Apollo Program to Solve Our Energy Problems”
1) Goal to Land on the Moon
Goal:
0% Oil
Dependence
30% oil dependence, 1973.
Goal Line
Announcement
of Goal
2) Goal to Reduce U.S. Energy
Dependence From 30% to 0%
Project Independence
Announced Nov. 7, 1973
61% Oil
Dependence.
Time: 34 years
Cost: $147B
Since “Project Energy Independence” was announced Nov 7, 1973:
We’ve spent
• 130% the Apollo Program in cost, and
• 415% the Apollo Program in time, and are
• Twice as far from goal than at beginning
Energy is far more difficult a challenge than simply landing on the moon, ending
wars or curing diseases. An Apollo Program approach is a noble idea, BUT is
fiscally inadequate to address humanity’s most difficult challenge ever, energy.
A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
WRONG PROBLEM DEFINITION!
A Short Stop On The Way To $8.00 A Gallon
For 35 years, gasoline price was mistakenly considered the problem to
solve. It is merely a symptom, like the pressure reading on a barometer
that can really mean there’s a hurricane coming. Trying to solve gas prices
is the same as trying to fix the barometer, while ignoring the hurricane .
Far greater than $5.00 a gallon is likely.
THE problem to solve is the growth in instability of the energy supply and
its geopolitical disruption.
Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second
Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second
Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second
Global Supply-Demand Challenge
Barrels
of Oil Per
Second
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
45% of the
World’s Population
1.32B
.235B
1.13B
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
45% of the
World’s Population
1.32B
.235B
1.13B
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
45% of the
World’s Population
1.32B
.235B
1.13B
+ 8.83
+ 8.86
+ 9.94
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
45% of the
World’s Population
1.32B
.235B
1.13B
+ 8.83
+ 8.86
+ 9.94
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption
would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.
Per Capita Oil Consumption - 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WSJ_consumption.png
45% of the
World’s Population
1.32B
.235B
1.13B
+ 8.83
+ 8.86
+ 9.94
If the populations of China, India and Indonesia increase oil consumption to the level of Italy, world oil consumption
would increase from 87 to 113 million barrels a day. Like adding 1.2 X United States to world consumption.
Per Capita Oil Demand
Barrels Per Person Per Year
Russian Oil Production and Consumption
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
2006:
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today, then at
$100 a barrel, Russia is netting
$250B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $498B a year to
import oil.Thousand B
arr
els
a D
ay
Russian Oil Production and Consumption
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
2006:
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today, then at
$100 a barrel, Russia is netting
$250B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $498B a year to
import oil.Thousand B
arr
els
a D
ay
Russian Oil Production and Consumption
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
Thousand B
arr
els
a D
ay
2006:
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today’s
$50/barrel, Russia is netting
$125B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $235B a year to
import oil.
Russian Oil Production and Consumption
www.eia.doe.gov
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS
Thousand B
arr
els
a D
ay
2006:
Russia exported 6.86 million
barrels of oil a day.
If that is the same today’s
$50/barrel, Russia is netting
$125B a year in hard cash.
While at the same time the USA
is spending $235B a year to
import oil.
OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)
Now Part of the
Upside and Opportunity
OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)
- Fuel Cells and Hydrogen -
OK, So Much for the
Downers (Challenges)Now Part of the
Upside and Opportunity
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 1993
Energy Partners’ Green Car• Hydrogen fuel
• Three 5-kW PEM fuel cells
1993
Small Sample of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Cars in the News in 2008
Redesigning the Way We Design Cars
ALL the Car Stuff is Inside the “Skateboard”
GM Sequel Hydrogen Fuel Cell SUV
2009 Honda Clarity Key Components
134 HP Fuel Cell Stack 134 HP Electric Motor and Transmission
Solar Powered Hydrogen Refueling Station
New Driver in 2017
We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million
non-fossil powered cars per year when he
begins driving.
New Driver in 2017
We need to be producing about 1 - 3 million
non-fossil powered cars per year when he
begins driving.
Salami sandwich provided for scale.
What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy
options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally
provide a sustainable and independent energy
economy?
What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
With all the technology, economic, strategic and policy
options we have, WHAT choice do we make to finally
provide a sustainable and independent energy
economy?
•Your action
•The education of others
•The public
•Politicians
•Industry and financial leaders
What Choice do We Make NOW to “Save the World”?
Thank You Very Much
Civilization’s Development in Food and Energy
1101001,00010,000100,0001,000,000
Years before present
Hunters and
gatherers of food
Cultivators of food
Hunters and gatherers of energy
Cultivators ofenergy
Fire Whale oil Peat Coal Oil Nat gas Fissile mat’l
Hydro Wind/Solar/Biomass/OTEC
Fo
od
En
erg
y
New technologies now
permit us to be:
With abundant food and low
populations, we existed as:
During the last ice age we
developed the tools and
techniques to become:
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