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Land Use Change: Impacts on Ecosystem Services
(or why we need to plan)
Liz KramerDirector- Natural Resources Spatial Analysis
Laboratory
What is Green Space?
It Depends on Who You Ask!
To a ConservationistTo a Recreation Director
Agriculture
Buffers
Forest
Active &Passive Recreation
Critical Habitat
What is Green Space? What is Green Space?
MANY TYPES OF GREEN SPACE MANY TYPES OF GREEN SPACE
As there are many types of Green Space,when planning for it or purchasing it, be
clear as to its intended use and management
Farm Preservation? Buffer Areas Habitat Protection
What is Green Space?
Recreation Trail Natural Corridor
What is Green Space? What is Green Space?
or or
“Green Space” must therefore be clearly defined for public discussions
“Green Space” must therefore be clearly defined for public discussions
Conservation
• The act or process of conserving• Preservation or restoration from loss, damage or neglect.• The protection, preservation, management or restoration
of wildlife and of natural resources, such as forest soil or water.
• The maintenance of a physical quantity such as energy or mass during a physical or chemical change.
• American Heritage Dictionary of the English language 4th edition
• Conservation = Environmental Protection
Conservation is not a new Concept
• Conservation is a state of harmony between men and nature Aldo Leopold
• Conservation means the wise use of the earth and its resources for the lasting good of men Gifford Pinchot
• The conservation of natural resources is the fundamental problem. Unless we solve that problem it will avail us little to solve all others Theodore Roosevelt - 1906
Environmental Protection: Do our current tools meet the needs for the future?
Land Acquisition – • How much is
enough? • Area = environmental
quality?
Environmental Protection: Do our current tools meet the needs for the future?
Regulation – What we do with or on the land• Regulation sets
basements not ceilings
• Most environmental degradation is due to population and choices
• Blunt tool and heavy handed
Environmental Protection: do our current tools meet the needs of the future?
• New ideas– Incentives, markets, and education– New players, new tools, different scales– Devolved responsibility from fed, to state, to
local governments– Process based, public input is critical– Must make economic sense for land owner,
government, and community
Ecosystem Services
• Benefits people obtain from ecosystems– Provisioning services
• Food, water, fuel, and fiber
– Regulating and supporting services• Climate, water, disease regulation, and pollination• Soil formation, nutrient cycling, and decomposition
– Cultural services• Educational, aesthetic, cultural heritage, recreation and
tourism
Green Infrastructure
• “the substructure or underlying foundation, especially the basic installations and facilities on which the continuation and growth of a community depend” – gray infrastructure - roads, sewers, utility lines,
hospitals, schools, prisons, etc– Green infrastructure – waterways, wetlands,
woodlands, wildlife habitats, natural areas, greenways, working farms, ranches and forests, wilderness, etc.
Positive Impacts of Green Space
• Environmental Impacts– Decrease stormwater runoff & improved
water quality– Protection of wildlife habitat and wildlife– Keeping working landscapes (forest &
farm)– Improved air quality– Reduces contributes to climate change
• Economic Impacts• Social Impacts
• Environmental Impacts• Economic Impacts
– Increase property values & tax base in cities– Lower taxes for community services in
suburbs– Lower construction and maintenance cost– Lower health care costs
• Social Impacts
Positive Impacts of Green Space
• Environmental Impacts• Economic Impacts• Social Impacts
– Increase in economic opportunity– Improved feeling of sense of place and community– More access to open space– Increased social interaction (“public life”)– Less traffic and shorter commutes– Inner-city redevelopment
Positive Impacts of Green Space
Why Manage Growth?
• Some growth will come to your city or county whether you want it or not.
• Some growth won’t come to your city or county no matter what you do.
• Then there is a middle ground you can impact– This part will decide
your fate
Economic Benefits of Farm and Forest Lands
• These lands produce valuable products for consumers, generate jobs and tax revenues– 1/6 of all jobs and gross state
product in GA
• These lands attract businesses and families
• These lands also provide a net surplus to local government finances
Economic Benefits of Green Space
• Green spaces increase property values of surrounding land
• Green and open spaces can provide environmental amenities for free
• If green spaces contribute to quality of life, you attract people and jobs to community
Development by Type
• Many counties and cities think that growth and development mean an increasing tax base and better financial health for the local government.
• Unfortunately a growing tax base is not enough to guarantee financial health, you must get revenue to grow faster than expenditures.
Revenues to Cost by Land Use
• Using results compiled by AFT, the national averages are:– Residential: $0.87– Commercial/Industrial:
$3.45– Farm/Forest/Open: $2.70
• These figures are $’s of revenue for each $1 of expenditures.
Some Southeastern US Results
Revenue:Expenditure Ratios
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Resid. Comm. Farm/for.
Oconee
Hall
Thomas
Carroll
Jones
Cherokee
Union (NC)
Leon (FL)
Manufactured Housing
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
Dollars of Revenue per $1 of Service Cost
Colquitt
Grady
Hall
Mitchell
Thomas
Break-even Home Values
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
County
1 kid
2 kids
3 kids
1000 $
JonesThomasCherokee
Development Patterns
• Development patterns have an impact on the cost of service delivery: sprawl is expensive to service.
• The same growth done more densely and contiguously saves both money, farmland, and provides environmental amenities.– New Jersey, South Carolina,
California studies
How to Change the Numbers
• Cost of service goes down by 50% of land savings (use half the land, save 25%).
• Avoid leapfrog development.• Build where infrastructure already
exists (infill is much cheaper than extensive growth).
• Multifamily is less expensive per unit until density gets very high.
• Design so service costs are low.
Jobs, Commuting, and Home
• 31% if workers in Rural South work in a different county than where they live.
• 52% of employment growth in metro areas was from in-commuters.
• 27% of employment growth in rural areas was from in-commuters.
• jobs ≠ housing growth
• Source: Mitch Renkow, NC State
Changing the Numbers
• The ways to change the numbers sure sound a lot like the LCI concept– Commutes would be short– Density would be higher– Sometimes done as infill or redevelopment
Knowing where not to build is as important as
where to build
Green space planning identifies where not to build and allows us to
take advantage of nature in providing key services
1734 Georgia Colony
Circa 1732
Circa 1831
Railroad andCounty Map Of Georgia
1920
State HighwayMap 1939
Thomas County1895
Gwinnett County 1912
Franklin County 1956
Land Cover Change 1974 - 2008
1974 1985 1991 1998 2001 2005 20080
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Open Water
Low Den Urban
High Den Urban
Clearcut/sparse veg
Deciduous Forest
Evergreen Forest
Mixed Forest
Agriculture
Forested Wetlands
Year
Hecta
res
1974 -2005 Ag Change Statewide
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sand/b
each
/mud
open
water LIU HIU
Clear
cut
Min
es/q
uarri
es/o
utcro
ps
ever
green
fore
st
decid
uous
fore
st
mix
ed fo
rest
agric
ulture
fore
sted
wet
land
s
mar
sh/b
rack
ish w
etla
nds
fresh
water
wet
lands
Per
cen
t
agriculture
Distribution of Converted Ag Lands
Tree Canopy Change
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
County
Per
cen
t
percent canopy 1992
percent canopy 2001
Percent canopy 2005
Metro Atlanta
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
CO SOx PM10 O3 NO2
tons removed 91
tons removed 01
tons removed 05
Metro Atlanta
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
CO SOx PM10 O3 NO2
1991 Dollars Saved
2001 Dollars Saved
2005 Dollars Saved
Results from Ben Map Models(EPA)
Forest Fragmentation
Impervious Change: Top 10 Counties in Acres Per Day
• 1991 – 2001– Gwinnett (6)– Fulton (5)– Cobb (4)– DeKalb (2)– Forsyth (1)– Clayton (1)– Henry (1)– Chatham (1)– Cherokee (1)– Richmond (1)
• 2001 – 2005– Gwinnett (9)– Fulton (8)– Cobb (6)– DeKalb (5)– Henry (4)– Clayton (3)– Chatham (3)– Paulding (3)– Cherokee (3)– Muscogee (2)
Top 10 Impervious Surface as Percent of County
1991 2001 2005 2008
Clayton (14) Clayton (20) Clayton (25) Clayton (28)
DeKalb (13) DeKalb (18) DeKalb (22) DeKalb (25)
Fulton (10) Cobb (16) Cobb (20) Cobb (24)
Cobb (10) Fulton (15) Gwinnett (19) Gwinnett (24)
Gwinnett (7) Gwinnett (15) Fulton (18) Fulton (22)
Muscogee (7) Muscogee (9) Muscogee (12) Muscogee (14)
Richmond (6) Richmond (9) Richmond (10) Richmond (12)
Bibb (6) Clarke (8) Clarke (10) Clarke (11)
Clarke (5) Bibb (6) Rockdale (9) Rockdale (11)
Rockdale (4) Rockdale (4) Bibb (8) Bibb (10)
Water Balance
Pre-development Post-development
Urban Hydrograph
Urban Growth Modeling
• SLEUTH - Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban-extent, Transportation, Hillshade
• Brute-force simulations• Types of growth – spontaneous growth,
new spreading centers, edge growth, and road-influenced growth
• Growth coefficients – dispersion, breed, spread, slope, and road gravity
Scenarios
1. Current Trends2. Future Land Use Alternative3. Service Delivery - Cluster Alternative
Current Trends Scenario Exclusion
Future Land Use Scenario Exclusion
Service Delivery – Clustered Scenario Exclusion
Scenario Results
(1) (2) (3)
Scenario Comparison•Current Trends Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 33% urban, 6.7 % impervious
•Future Land Use Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 31% urban, 6.4% impervious
•Service Delivery Cluster Scenario– 2001: 13% urban, 4.3% impervious– 2025: 26% urban, 5.8% impervious
Pettit Creek Simulated Hydrograph
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Tot
al I
mpa
ired
Stre
am L
engt
h, K
m
3
2
1
Is all land the same?
Georgia encompasses 37 million acres of land
If you can read this you’re pretty much screwed
Where are the forests, farms, and wetlands that:
• have the highest values related to water quality, habitat, economy, and culture?
• are most vulnerable to loss?
Based on the above, what are the highest priority areas to preserve?
Resource Lands Assessment
Habitat fragmentation is a serious threat to biological diversity and is the primary cause of the present extinction crisis.
Habitat Preservation & Connectivity (“Critical Habitats”)
Watershed Protection (“Water quality”)
Our watersheds not only provide us with quality drinking water, but also provide healthy streams for fishing and swimming.
Why are we doing this?
?
Economic Sustainability of Forests
Protecting the best forests helps maintain a strong, resource-based economy.
Preservation of Quality Farm Land (“Economic Viability”)
Protecting the best farm land enables crop production for many generations to come.
Why are we doing this?
Understanding Development Pressures
Large tracts of forests, wetlands, and farmlands are threatened with fragmentation and parcelization due to urban development pressures.
Cultural Viability
Preserving heritage and traditional values, cultural lands often define a sense of place.
Why are we doing this?
Polluted air and drinking water can lead to devastating health problems and degrades overall quality of life.
Declining Environmental Quality
Nutrient Cap Maintenance
Nutrient reductions will have to be capped despite expected growth in the region.
Why are we doing this?
Green Infrastructure Approach
SoutheasternEcological
Framework
Introduction to Resource Land Assessment
• What is it?– Where are the lands that:
• Have the highest values related to water quality, habitat, economy, culture, etc.?
• Are most vulnerable to loss• Based on the above, what are the highest priority
areas to preserve?
Landscape Models• Ecological Network (hubs and
corridors)• Water Quality/Quantity• Forest Economics• Air Quality• Biodiversity/Wildlife• Cultural Assets• Prime Farmland• Vulnerability
Can define many different types of nodes (cores) and hubs
• Goal• Assumptions• Data• Approach• Results
Model Overview
Ecological Network(Hubs and Corridors)
Goal
Identify, evaluate, and prioritize an interconnected network of the best remaining examples of forest and wetland habitat.
Ecological Network(Hubs and Corridors)
• Land Cover• Streams• Wetlands• Roads• Protected Lands• Biological Conservation
Database (element occurrence points)
Data Layers
Ecological Network(Hubs and Corridors)
Results
Water Quality Model
Identify those forests and wetlands that, if lost, would have the greatest potential to compromise or degrade watershed and water quality.
Goal
Regional/Watershed Factors(“Context”)
Assumptions
Water Quality Model
Local or Site Factors(“Content”)
Assemble Data Layers
Approach
Water Quality Model
Assemble Data Layers
Assign Score to Values within Each Data Layer
Approach
Water Quality Model
Assemble Data Layers
Assign Score to Values within Each Data Layer
Assign Weights to Each Data Layer
Approach
Water Quality Model
Assemble Data Layers
Assign Score to Values within Each Data Layer
Calculate Composite Score
Assign Weights to Each Data Layer
Approach
Water Quality Model
Local Parameters
1. Proximity to Water2. Erodible Soils
3. Net Primary Productivity
4. Slope
5. Wetland Function
6. Forest Fragmentation
7. 100 Year Floodplains
8. Hydrogeomorphic Regions
Regional Parameters (summarized by HUC 11 watershed)
9. Stream Density (m/sq km) 10.Percent Forested 11.Percent Impervious 12.Water Quality Rank
13.Municipal Water Supplies
Data Layers
Water Quality Model
Water Quality Model
Results
LibertyReservoir
Loch RavenReservoir
Baltimore City
A Model 12-Step ProcessA Model 12-Step Process
A green space planning processA green space planning process
1. Take charge 1. Take charge
2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory
3. Categorize green space areas by function3. Categorize green space areas by function
4. Review previous plans & documents4. Review previous plans & documents
5. Develop clear objectives5. Develop clear objectives
Creating a Draft PlanCreating a Draft Plan
6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for preservation6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for preservation
A Model 12-Step ProcessA Model 12-Step ProcessA green space planning processA green space planning process
Fine Tuning & Selling the PlanFine Tuning & Selling the Plan
7. Contact landowners that might be affected7. Contact landowners that might be affected
8. Prioritize areas for conservation based on inventory, objectives, & landowner considerations
8. Prioritize areas for conservation based on inventory, objectives, & landowner considerations
10. Develop an implementation scheme, including fiscal plan, regulatory aspects, and procedures
10. Develop an implementation scheme, including fiscal plan, regulatory aspects, and procedures
9. Create an inventory of priority parcels9. Create an inventory of priority parcels
11. Pepper the community with education11. Pepper the community with education
12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations
A green space planning processA green space planning process
1. Take charge!!1. Take charge!!
Someone has to start a discussionSomeone has to start a discussion
Someone has to take chargeSomeone has to take charge
Develop a teamDevelop a teamPlanning CommissionPlanning Commission
Chamber of
Commerce
Chamber of
Commerce
Greenspace CommissionGreenspace Commission
??
A green space planning processA green space planning process
2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory
2. Conduct a Community Resource Inventory
• committed open land• committed open land
• priority natural resource areas• priority natural resource areas
• areas that might be protected through regulation• areas that might be protected through regulation
• unique historic, archeological, or aesthetic sites• unique historic, archeological, or aesthetic sites
• areas suitable/desirable for future active recreational use• areas suitable/desirable for future active recreational use
A green space planning processA green space planning process
3. Categorize green space areas by function
3. Categorize green space areas by function
1. Clean and abundant water
2. Clean air
3. Biodiversity protection
4. Cultural Identity
5. Outdoor recreation and education
1. Clean and abundant water
2. Clean air
3. Biodiversity protection
4. Cultural Identity
5. Outdoor recreation and education
A green space planning processA green space planning process
4. Review Previous Plans & Documents
4. Review Previous Plans & Documents
• there is probably more out there than you think!
• there is probably more out there than you think!
• don’t waste time recreating the wheel• don’t waste time recreating the wheel
A green space planning processA green space planning process
5. Develop clear goals & objectives5. Develop clear goals & objectives
• What type of green space does it address?• What type of green space does it address?
• why is the plan being developed?• why is the plan being developed?
• What will be the end result?• What will be the end result?
A green space planning processA green space planning process
6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for conservation
6. Take an initial stab at priority areas for conservation
inventoryinventoryobjectivesobjectives
Local political and fiscal realities
Local political and fiscal realities
A green space planning processA green space planning process
7. Contact landowners that might be affected
7. Contact landowners that might be affected
• this should be done prior to any public discussion!
• this should be done prior to any public discussion!
• point out that their property has been identified as being important, after a careful study
• point out that their property has been identified as being important, after a careful study
• determine their interest (or lack thereof) in preservation
• determine their interest (or lack thereof) in preservation
• explain that this is NOT a land grab!• explain that this is NOT a land grab!
A green space planning processA green space planning process
8. Prioritize areas for conservation based on inventory, objectives, & landowner considerations
8. Prioritize areas for conservation based on inventory, objectives, & landowner considerations
A green space planning processA green space planning process
9. Create an Inventory of Priority Parcels
9. Create an Inventory of Priority Parcels
• I.d. number• I.d. number
• owner• owner
• reason for priority listing• reason for priority listing
• assessed value• assessed value
A green space planning processA green space planning process
10. Develop an implementation scheme
10. Develop an implementation scheme
• how will green space protection be funded?• how will green space protection be funded?
• what changes to regulations are needed?• what changes to regulations are needed?
• what is the role of each “player”? • what is the role of each “player”?
• what are the management needs of acquired properties?
• what are the management needs of acquired properties?
• what mechanisms are needed to keep implementation moving?
• what mechanisms are needed to keep implementation moving?
10. Develop an implementation scheme10. Develop an implementation scheme
Preservation TechniquesPreservation Techniques
• fee simple purchase• fee simple purchase
• purchase of conservation restrictions (easements)
• purchase of conservation restrictions (easements)
• donation• donation
• “bargain” sale • “bargain” sale • fair market value sale• fair market value sale
• upon death by owner • upon death by owner • outright• outright
• with lifetime use• with lifetime use
• land exchange/foreclosure/eminent domain• land exchange/foreclosure/eminent domain
• regulation (zoning, subdivision dedication, etc.)• regulation (zoning, subdivision dedication, etc.)
A green space planning processA green space planning process
11. Pepper the community with education
11. Pepper the community with education
• Develop outreach materials• Develop outreach materials
• Hold proactive public meetings• Hold proactive public meetings
• Listen! Review & revise, if needed• Listen! Review & revise, if needed
A green space planning processA green space planning process
12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations
12. Fold the plan into appropriate plans and regulations
Green Space Plan
Green Space Plan
Comprehensive Development
Plan
Comprehensive Development
Plan
Zoning regs?Zoning regs?
Wetlands regs?Wetlands regs?
Sudivision regs?Sudivision regs?
The Ideal Planning Process
The Ideal Planning Process
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
Implementation
A Simple Example…A Simple Example…
1. Inventory1. Inventory
Base MapBase Map
Land CoverLand Cover
WetlandsWetlands
Water ResourcesWater Resources
Unique/FragileUnique/Fragile
CommittedCommitted
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
Implementation
A Simple Example…A Simple Example…
1. Inventory1. Inventory
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
2. Analysis2. Analysis• Developed• Developed
• Regulated• Regulated
• Committed OS• Committed OS
Implementation
Areas available to be
developed in GRAYAreas available to be
developed in GRAY
A Simple Example…A Simple Example…
1. Inventory1. Inventory
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
2. Analysis2. Analysis
3. Develop the Plan3. Develop the Plan
• Linkages• Linkages
• ID Resources at Risk• ID Resources at Risk
Implementation
• Windows/Additions• Windows/Additions
Developed, regulated, committedDeveloped, regulated, committed AvailableAvailable
A Simple Example…A Simple Example…
1. Inventory1. Inventory
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
2. Analysis2. Analysis
3. Develop the Plan3. Develop the Plan
• Linkages• Linkages
• ID Resources at Risk
• ID Resources at Risk
Implementation
• Windows/Additions• Windows/Additions• ID Parcels• ID Parcels• Prioritize• Prioritize
Developed, regulated, committedDeveloped, regulated, committed AvailableAvailable
A Simple Example…A Simple Example…
1. Inventory1. Inventory
Inventory
Analysis
Plan
2. Analysis2. Analysis
3. Develop the Plan3. Develop the Plan
4. Implementation4. Implementation
Implementation
AdditionAddition
Link Large TractsLink Large Tracts
Committed OS Committed OS
Available Available
Fill in windows Fill in windows
Questions?
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