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DAILY IFOREX REPORT
26TH
SEP 2013
GBP/USD 1.6027
GBP/EUR 1.1865
EUR/USD 1.3500
GBPAUD 1.7119
GBP/CAD 1.6521
GBP/CHF 1.4591
GBP/CZK 30.729
GBP/DKK 8.846
GBP/HKD 12.4235
GBP/INR 99.50
GBP/JPY 157.957
GBP/NOK 9.6542
GBP/NZD 1.9491
GBP/PLN 5.0044
GBP/SEK 10.31
GBP/SGD 2.0108
GBP/THB 50.09
GBP/TRY 3.21786
GBP/ZAR 15.85
GBP/CNY 9.7964
Forex: New Zealand Dollar Sinks As Trade Data Weighs On RBNZ Outlook
Forex: EURJPY Faces The Deepest Reversal But NZDJPY More Active
USD Rebound at Risk as Durable Goods to Fall for Second Month
Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Demands for U.S. Durable Goods are expected to contract another 0.2% in August and the slowdown in private sector consumption may drag on the dollar as it limits the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the October 29-30 meeting.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 09/25/201312:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact:EURUSD
Expected: -0.2%
Previous: -7.3%
DailyFX Forecast: -1.0% to 1.0%
Why Is This Event Important:
With the ongoing discussion at the Fed to scale back on quantitative easing, data highlighting a slower recovery may prompt the central bank to further delay the exit strategy, and the committee may present a greater argument to carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014 should the fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3540 TGT
1.3560/1.3580 SL 1.3510
SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.30 TGT
98.10/97.90 SL 98.60
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.6080 TGT
1.6100/1.6120 SL 1.6050
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>67(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.03(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>66(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>44(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>3(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon Sep 23
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI (SEP)
Medium 51.2 50.9 50.1
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP P)
Low 49.5 50.1 49.7
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP P)
Low 50.7 49.6 48.9
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG)
Low 10.4%
10.8%
07:00
CHF KOF Institute September Economic Forecast
Medium
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A)
Medium 51.3 52.2 51.8
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A)
Medium 54.4 53.0 52.8
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A)
Medium 51.1 51.7 51.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A)
Medium 52.1 51.0 50.7
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (SEP A)
Medium 52.1 51.8 51.5
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (AUG)
Medium 0.14 -0.05 -0.43
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (SEP)
Medium
54.0
13:20
USD Fed's Lockhart to Speak in New York
Low
13:30
USD Fed's Dudley to Speak to Fordham Wall Street Council
Low
17:30
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks in Texas
Low
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
Tue
Sep 24 05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.5%
08:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (SEP)
Medium
108.0 107.5
08:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (SEP)
Medium
112.6 112.0
08:00
EUR German IFO - Expectations (SEP)
Medium
104.0 103.3
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG)
Medium
38000 37200
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.5% -0.6%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.6% -0.8%
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.8% 0.9%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL)
Low
12.5% 12.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL)
Low
159.54
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.9% 0.7%
13:30
USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Payment Systems in Chicago
Low
14:00
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP)
Low
14
14:00
USD Consumer Confidence (SEP)
High
80.3 81.5
17:00
USD Fed's George Delivers Introductory Remarks in Chicago
Low
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Medium
-700M -774M
22:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Low
3.54B 3.85B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Low
4.30B 4.62B
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Medium
-1550M -1688M
23:50
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
Wed
Sep 25
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1% 0.3%
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-3.7% -2.6%
01:00
AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.7%
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (SEP)
Medium
49.7
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (AUG)
Medium
1.41
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT)
Medium
7 6.9
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F)
Medium
-1.8%
10:00
GBP CBI Reported Sales (SEP)
Low
24 27
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 20)
Medium
11.2%
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders (AUG)
High
-0.1% -7.3%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (AUG)
Medium
1.1% -0.6%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (AUG)
Low
1.2% -3.3%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (AUG)
Low
-1.5%
14:00
USD New Home Sales (AUG)
Low
425K 394K
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
7.9% -13.4%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 20)
Low
-4368K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 20)
Low
-861K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 20)
Low
-1627K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 20)
Low
-1079K
16:00
USD Household Change in Net Worth (2Q)
Low
$3003B
Thu
Sep 26 01:30
AUD Job vacancies (SEP)
Low
-7.3%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.2% 2.2%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (AUG)
Low
2.3% 2.5%
08:30
GBP Current Account (Pounds) (2Q)
Low
-10.0B -14.5B
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)
Medium
0.7% 0.7%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)
High
1.5% 1.5%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F)
Low
0.9% 0.9%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F)
Low
-3.5% -3.5%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 20)
Medium
309K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (SEP 13)
Low
2787K
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T)
Medium
2.7% 2.5%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption (2Q T)
Medium
1.8% 1.8%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)
Medium
0.8% 0.8%
12:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q T)
Medium
0.8%
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-1.0% -1.3%
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
8.6%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 20)
Low
46
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (SEP)
Low
8
16:15
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Minnesota
Low
22:15
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in New York
Low
23:05
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)
Medium
-11 -13
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
0.8% 0.7%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)
High
0.7% 0.7%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)
High
-0.1% -0.1%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)
Low
0.5% 0.5%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)
Low
-0.3% -0.4%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20)
Medium
¥921.6B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20)
Medium
-¥50.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20)
Low
¥112.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20)
Low
¥153.5B
Fri Sep 27
01:15
USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Denver
Low
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
11.1%
01:45
CNY MNI September Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
06:45
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)
Low
0.5% 0.5%
06:45
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)
Low
0.3% 0.3%
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (SEP)
Medium
1.36
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL)
Low
0.5% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (JUL)
Low
0.6% 0.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP)
Low
-0.09 -0.21
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP)
Medium
95.9 95.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP)
Medium
-7 -7.9
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F)
Medium
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP)
Medium
-5 -5.3
09:45
USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Oslo
Low
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP P)
Medium
0.0% 0.0%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP P)
High
1.5% 1.5%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (SEP P)
Medium
0.1% 0.0%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (SEP P)
High
1.6% 1.6%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
Low
2.6%
12:30
USD Fed's Rosengren to Give Opening Remarks at Conference in NY
Low
12:30
USD Personal Income (AUG)
Medium
0.4% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Spending (AUG)
Medium
0.3% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (AUG)
Low
1.2% 1.4%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.2% 1.2%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F)
Medium
78.0 76.8
14:15
USD Fed's Evans Discusses Economy on Panel in Oslo
Low
18:00
USD Fed's Dudley to Speak on the Economy in Syracuse, NY
Low
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