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DAILY IFOREX REPORT
29th AUG 2013
FX Headlines: British Pound At Risk With Carney’s Speech Looking Dovish
Global Selling Persists but Yen Eases; Pound Down Before Carney
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is scrapping back some of its losses yesterday and now appears to be forming a minor Bull Flag on the daily chart. Whereas the Australian Dollar, the British Pound, and the Euro have all been cooperating with the US Dollar’s attempt to strengthen, the simple demand for liquidity amid risk-aversion has prevented any such progress against the Japanese Yen.
Today, the USDJPY has started to take back some of its losses from Tuesday, but gains have been limited as pressure on emerging markets remains. It seems that a negative feedback loop is setting in, driving down investor sentiment and exacerbating stress in markets around the world:
Certainly, the global selloff has hardly reached the European currencies, which have turned into a near-term safe haven of sorts amid turmoil in the commodity currency complex. But the British Pound today especially is vulnerable to a setback.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give his first policy speech today, and in light of recent price action in the British Pound and UK Gilts, we are expecting a dovish tone to be struck. In the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) released earlier this month, economic “circuit breakers” were identified that would signal a wind down of the BoE’s easing program.
While the initial commentary from Governor Carney may prove to be dovish, it will take a concerted shift in his policy stance – even more dovish – in order for the desire effect to be achieved: softer UK yields. Accordingly, barring an overtly dovish tone, it is possible that the Sterling sets up an opportunity to buy the dip later today.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3320 TGT 1.3300/1.3280
SL 1.3350
SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.20
TGT 97.00/96.70 SL 97.50
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5450 TGT 1.5430/1.5400
SL 1.5480
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDRD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>21(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>70(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Aug 25
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Medium -1688M -956M -816M
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Medium -774M -16M 374M
22:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Low 3.85B 3.90B 4.01B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Low 4.62B 3.90B 3.63B
23:50
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL)
Low 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Mon Aug 26
JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31)
Medium
08:00
ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy
Medium
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL)
High
-4.0% 3.9%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL)
Medium
0.5% -0.1%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL)
Low
0.5% 0.9%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL)
Low
0.3% -0.9%
14:30
USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG)
Low
3.9 4.4
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
Tue Aug 27
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Low
11.1%
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG)
Medium
49.4
08:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (AUG)
Medium
107 106.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment
(AUG)
Medium
111 110.1
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
08:00
EUR German IFO - Expectations (AUG)
Medium
103.1 102.4
10:50
USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden
Low
11:00
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden
Low
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
1.0% 1.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN)
Low
12.1% 12.2%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN)
Low
159.40 156.14
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q)
Low
136.7
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q)
Low
10.2%
14:00 LIVE
USD Consumer Confidence (AUG)
High
79.0 80.3
14:00
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG)
Low
0 -11
Wed
Aug 28
CNY Leading Index (JUL)
Medium
99.55
00:00
AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q)
Low
69.7
GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.6% 0.8%
JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce
Low
01:30
AUD Construction Work Done (2Q)
Low
1.0% -2.0%
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL)
Medium
1.44
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)
Medium
7.1 7.0
06:00
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.3% -0.8%
06:00
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Low
-2.5% -2.2%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL)
Low
2.4% 2.8%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Low
2.0% 2.3%
10:00
GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG)
Low
20 17
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23)
Low
-4.6%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN)
Low
2.5%
12:45
GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy
Medium
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
9.1%
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.0% -0.4%
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23)
Low
-1090K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23)
Low
-1428K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23)
Low
871K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23)
Low
-4029K
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23)
Medium
-¥903.8B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23)
Medium
-¥3.0B
23:50
JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL)
Medium
-0.5% 3.5%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.3% 1.6%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23)
Low
¥38.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23)
Low
¥47.9B
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)
Low
1.7%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-1.0% -0.2%
Thu Aug 29
01:00
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
3.4%
01:00
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG)
Medium
52.8
01:00
NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)
Low
43.7
01:30
AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q)
Low
0.0% -4.7%
01:30
JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech
Low
07:55
EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG)
High
-5K -7K
07:55
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)
High
6.8% 6.8%
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)
Low
41
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P)
High
1.7% 1.9%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P)
High
1.7% 1.9%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P)
Medium
0.1% 0.4%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P)
Medium
0.1% 0.5%
12:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S)
Medium
0.8% 0.8%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S)
Medium
2.2% 1.7%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S)
Medium
0.7% 0.7%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23)
Medium
330K
12:30
USD Personal Consumption (2Q S)
Medium
1.8% 1.8%
12:30
CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q)
Low
-$14.8B -$14.1B
12:30
CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.3% 0.3%
12:30
CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.7% 0.3%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17)
Low
2990K 2990K
12:50
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis
Low
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23)
Low
57
18:00
USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia
Low
22:45
NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
1.3% -4.0%
23:05
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG)
Medium
-14 -16
23:15
JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG)
Medium
50.7
23:30 LIVE
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
High
0.7% 0.2%
23:30
JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
0.2% -0.4%
23:30 LIVE
JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium
3.9% 3.9%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
0.6% 0.4%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.2% -0.2%
23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)
Low
0.93 0.92
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.4% 0.3%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.3% -0.4%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
23:45
USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy
Medium
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)
Medium
1.8% -4.6%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)
Low
3.7% -3.1%
Fri
Aug 30 01:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
3.1% 3.1%
01:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.4% 0.4%
01:45
CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
03:00
NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)
Low
6.2%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)
Low
-9.5%
05:00
JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)
Medium
0.996M 0.976M
05:00
JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
14.3% 15.3%
05:00
JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)
Low
21.9%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
3.3% 3.9%
06:00
EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
1.7% -2.8%
06:00
EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.6% -1.5%
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG)
Medium
1.33 1.23
08:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P)
Low
12.2% 12.1%
08:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q)
Low
12.1% 11.9%
08:30
GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL)
Medium
59.0K 57.7K
08:30
GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL)
Medium
0.7B 0.5B
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL)
Low
3.9% 4.7%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.1%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)
Low
1.5%
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL)
Low
1.2B 1.0B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG A)
High
1.1% 1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)
Medium
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.4% 1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)
Medium
12.1% 12.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)
Low
-0.36 -0.53
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG)
Low
93.8 92.5
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG)
Low
-9.6 -10.6
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG)
Low
-6.7 -7.8
12:30 LIVE
CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN)
High
1.6%
12:30 LIVE
CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q)
High
1.6% 2.5%
12:30 LIVE
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
-0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
1.3% 1.2%
12:30
USD Personal Income (JUL)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
12:30
USD Personal Spending (JUL)
Medium
0.3% 0.5%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.2% 0.4%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL)
Low
1.5% 1.3%
13:00
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis
Low
13:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG)
Low
52.43
13:45
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG)
Medium
53.0 52.3
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F)
Medium
80.5 80.0
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