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Emergency Preparedness - State of the Art -
David Alexander University College London
Plan of this lesson:-
• organisation of the sector
• information in emergencies
• humanitarian relief.
Objective: to examine trends and developments in emergency management with respect to....
• counter-terrorism
Organisation
Resilie
nce
Synonyms and approximations
Disaster risk reduction
Incident management
Population (community) protection
Plans, procedures, protocols
Human and material resources
Hazard forecasting, monitoring,
etc.
Knowledge of community
vulnerability
Knowledge of hazards and their impacts
Knowledge of coping
capacity and resilience
Disaster Risk
Reduction
DRR
Catastrophe
Disaster
Major incident
Incident
...but there are no quantitative definitions...
International
National
Regional
Municipal
Some characteristics of large emergencies
• the context of risk and vulnerability
can transform an incident into a disaster.
• 10% require a qualitative change
in management techniques
• 90% of emergencies do not
require special procedures
• events that cannot be managed
with normal resources
Hazard monitoring & forecasting
Population (community) protection
Disaster management
Major incident
management
Incident management
Policies Plans
Procedures Protocols
Human & material resources
Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents
Major incidents
Disasters Catastrophes
Impact Very
localised Generally localised
Widespread and severe
Extremely large
Response Local
efforts Some mutual assistance
Inter- governmental
response
Major international
response
Plans and procedures
Standard operating
procedures
Emergency plans
activated
Emergency plans fully activated
Plans potentially
overwhelmed
Resources Local
resources Some outside
assistance
Interregional transfer of resources
Local resources
overwhelmed
Public involvement
Very little involvement
Mainly not involved
Public very involved
Extensively involved
Recovery Very few challenges
Few challenges
Major challenges
Massive challenges
Local incident Local response A
Threshold of local capacity
Small regional
incident Co-ordinated local response B
Threshold of intermunicipal capacity
Major regional
incident
Intermunicipal and
regional response B
Threshold of regional capacity
National disaster
Intermunicipal, regional
and national response C
Threshold of national capacity
International
catastrophe
Ditto, with more
international assistance C
Volontary sector:
support and integration
Private sector:
integration
Disaster
Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations
Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance
Nation: policies of compatibility, harmonisation
and co-ordination
International: exchange and support
A hierarchy of emergency
plans
Micro- emergency
Disaster or catastrophe
Macro- emergency
Meso- emergency
Single municipality
Several municipalities
Regional coordination
National coordination
Emergency preparedness has reached a crossroads....
A new class
of disaster?
Forms of disaster
Natural: earthquakes,
floods, landslides, etc.
Social: riots, mass gatherings,
demonstrations
Intentional: acts of
terrorism
Technological: toxic spills,
transportation crashes, etc.
"Homeland security"
"Civil contingencies" management
Business continuity
management Complex emergencies
Civil protection
The security industry
Emergencies and disasters
Homeland security:
is reduction in civil liberties
acceptable?
What relationship of business continuity
management with civil
authorities?
Complex emergencies: How much aid from donor countries?
Civil protection: what degree of political support?
What role for the security industry in the general emergency?
What are the limits of civil contingencies management?
Emergencies and disasters
Natural disasters
Techno- logical
disasters
Social disasters
Inten- tional
disasters
Natural Anthropogenic
Civil defence
Civil contingencies and Resilience
Civil protection
"Homeland Security"
Private sector
businesses
Volunteer organisations
Privatised public
services
Government
Military assistance to civilian
communities
Civil Defence
Civil Protection
Business continuity
management
CRISIS
OPERATIONS (ACHIEVEMENTS) REPUTATION
Perception
Communication
Concrete developments • positive • negative
Civil contingencies
Resilience
management
The risk environment
Business continuity
Civil protection
Civil defence
Paramilitary forces (National Guard)
Military forces
Police forces
Fire brigades
Public administrations
Civilian volunteer forces
PMF
MF
FB PA
CVF
PF
Italy
PMF
MF
FB PA
CVF
PF
UK
CVF
PMF
MF
FB PA
PF
USA
Military Civilian
Armed Civil administration forces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services
(army) [residual role] Civil defence Civil protection
Command and control Co-ordination and co-operation Chain of command Autonomy
Some links
Effects of
technology on vulnerability to
natural disasters
Effects of natural disasters on
technological capital
Natural disasters
Social disasters
Technological disasters
Social conditions as factors that
incubate
dissidence
Tech
nologica
l
compo
nent
of a
cts
of
terr
orism
Intentional disasters
Counter terrorism
• the age of CBRN?
• civil protection with a more restricted scope?
• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations
• the resurgence of civil defence
• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".
Homeland security
About 2000 US universities have opened centres for the study of terrorism, bioterrorism, CBRN or similar subjects
However, the US Federal Government has not reduced the number of declarations of natural disaster or states of emergency from the 45-75 per year that was the average before 11 September 2001.
Creation of the Department of Homeland Security was the greatest reorganisation of the US Federal Government since 1947
From 1980 to 1998 in the USA there were 455 Presidential
declarations of disaster as a result of hurricanes, floods and earthquakes.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e., piloted)
• it is potentially infinitely mutable
• designing remedies is a very expensive process
• the scenarios are highly debatable.
EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyo attack in the Toyko subway with the nerve gas Sarin (1995):
• 12 dead
• 4900 people went to hospital, of whom...
• about 1000 were genuinely injured
• ...about 3900 were suffering from MIPS - multiple ideopathic physical symptoms: i.e., hypochondria.
The principal effect of terrorism on the
general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of
normal daily life...
...with huge costs to society.
In the case of an attack with chemical weapons these aspects of decontamination protocols are highly debatable:
• the chemical agents employed to neutralise toxic substances
• the question of whether to take off clothes before being treated
• the decontamination techniques utilised in relation to the identification of the toxic substance
• how many people can be decontaminated realistically per unit time.
Armed aggression on the part of states
Civil defence
Natural disasters
Civil protection
Armed aggression on the part of
groups of dissidents
"Homeland security" (civil defence)
"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies" (resilience)
Emergency management: an evolutionary approach
Proxy Participatory
Civil defence...............Civil protection
Command and control Vertical chain of command Population excluded Law and order Secrecy
Collaboration Task forces
Population consulted and included
Problem solving Openness
Organisation • procedures • event scenarios • emergency plans
Intelligence • collection • interpretation • warning
Training • plan dissemination • exercises
Stockpiling • equipment • supplies
Surveillance • automatic (CCTV) • manual (personnel)
Analysis • laboratory • forensic
Counter-terrorism activity
Involvement of civil protection
Information (1): how emergencies are perceived
Impact of disaster Time
Deficit Surplus
Excess of information
Information critical
but lacking
Shortage of information
Events can be subject to different interpretations...
• in the World Trade Center collapse 500 of the victims were aliens, some without visas and US residency permits
• in the Bam earthquake many residents dug frantically among the ruins of their homes .... trying to recover staches of heroin etc.
More realism and less image is needed.
But public perception
of disasters continues to be dominated by myths and inaccuracies
enthusiastically propagated by
the mass media.
"Myth" no. 1: In general terms, disasters are truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no. 2: Disasters kill people without respect
to differences of social class.
"Myth" no. 3: Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.
What is self-protective behaviour?
• roll up into a corner?
• get under a doorway?
• don't rush out all together
• avoid falling objects
• protect your head, neck and back
• ....or what?
"Myth" no. 4: Trapped people survive for many days under the rubble of collapsed buildings.
0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15
Hours Days
Survival time
100
50
0
Perc
en
tag
e o
f p
eo
ple
bro
ug
ht
ou
t
ali
ve f
rom
un
der
co
llap
sed
bu
ilin
gs
Bam, Iran Dicembre 2003
In the Bam quake (26.12.03) 1600 rescuers from 43 nations saved only 30 people.
It was not an unusual situation....
The solution:
• encourage the formation of local search-and-rescue groups in the areas of major risk
• promote the transfer of technology and training
• international twinning of SAR groups.
Technical rescue should not be imported from
far away.
"Myth" no. 5: Disasters cause a great deal of chaos and thus cannot be managed systematically.
"Myth" no. 6: Usually, the first assistance in disaster is supplied by the emergency services.
"Myth" no. 7: When a disaster occurs there is usually a shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed well.
"Myth" no. 8: When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.
"Myth" no. 10: When disaster happens, people tend to panic.
Terrorism: a climate of fear....
Many eminent people in prominent positions in public life (top civil servants, politicians, scientists, police chiefs, etc.) have given the mass media their opinions
on the probable behaviour of the general public during a disaster,
opinions absolutely without any foundation of research in the social sciences
(sociology, social psychology, etc.).
"Myth" no. 11: People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.
"Myth" no. 12: After disaster has struck, people tend to be dazed and apathetic.
"Myth" no. 13: Disasters commonly give rise to
spontaneous manifestations of antisocial, behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.
Instead we have the therapeutic community
"Myth" no. 14: Unburied dead bodies constitute a health hazard and will contaminate
water supplies.
The mass media continually state that the presence of unburied bodies after disaster
can and will cause disease epidemics.
"Myth" no. 15: Spraying bodies, rubble
and survivors with disinfectant stops the spread of disease.
"Myth" no. 16: Disease epidemics are a very common
result of the disruption and poor health caused by major disasters.
"Myth" no. 17: Field hospitals are useful for the treatment of the injured.
"Myth" no. 18: Great quantities and assortments of
medicines should be sent to disaster areas.
"Myth" no. 19: Anthrax is a white powder.
"Myth" no. 20: Technology will save the world
from disasters.
Toulouse 21 September 2001
Explosion in a nitrogen fertilizer factory • 12 dead, 180 injured (30 seriously) • major damage over a 5 km radius
• toxic cloud of ammonia
The factory that exploded was situated next to another that made space rocket fuel !!!
"Myth" no. 21: Tsunamis are tidal waves.
"Myth" no. 22: Earthquake magnitude is always measured on the Richter scale.
"Myth" no. 23: There is such a thing as "earthquake weather".
Our image of disasters is conditioned far too much by Hollywood!
Mutual antipathy
or collaborative relationship?
Representatives of the mass
media
Editorial independence and freedom
Sales and ratings; reputation;
revenue from advertising
Emergency and disaster managers
Obligation to inform the public
Public information centres; warnings
and alerts; informing the
relatives of victims
Feedback
Feedback
Direct communication
Press conferences, communiques Consumer
relations
Civil protection service
The mass media
Call centre The
general public
Information 2: role of
technology in the
management of information
Wisdom: ability to make decisions on the basis of principles, experience and knowledge
Knowledge: understanding of how things function (or should function)
Information: description of physical and social situations
Data: basic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATION
Old ideas...
• rigid structure • hierarchy • military doctrine • secrecy • cordon • command and control • security • civil defence.
New ideas...
• planning • collaboration • flexible, adaptable management • limited "span of control" • information sharing • IT support • accredited journalists • involving the public • civil protection.
Some effects of the information
and communications technology revolution
• flattening of the chain of command
• IT support for disaster response
• overload of information delivery systems
• the emergency manager must study new ways to inform himself and others.
• artificiality and isolation from the reality on the ground
data
input and consultation
Data banks
Predictive models
of events
Display and analysis technology
Ability to analyse data
data analysis circuit
Disaster relief
Emergency manager
emergency management
circuit
Cultural filter
Risk management practices
Benign
Malignant
Technology as a source of risk reduction
Technology as an inadvertent source of risk
Technology as a deliberate source of risk
Ceaseless development of technology
Humanitarian relief
Aceh (Indonesia)
Afghanistan
Africa meridionale
Angola
Burundi
Cecenia
Colombia
Corea del Nord
Eritrea e Ethiopia
Grandi Laghi Africani
Haiti
Il Caucaso
Iraq
Kenya
Kosovo e i Balcani
Liberia
Pakistan settentrionale
Palestina e Israele
Rwanda
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sri Lanka
il Sudan
Timor Orientale
Uganda
'Complex emergencies': situations of political, economic and military collapse and damage to the fabric of society
The "complex emergencies":-
• around the world are about 25
• 60 million refugees and 25 million internally displaced persons (IDPs)
• the gap between rich and poor is widening
• powerful interests direct global traffic in arms, people and drugs
• increasing dilemma of neutrality
• increasing risk of revenge attacks.
War and conflict
Pove
rty
Natural disasters
Inse
curity
Vulnerability and marginalisation
Military
Humanitarian assistance
assistance
The "Military Cross"
Military assistance
Humanitarian assistance
Creation of poverty,
marginalisation, precariousness
"Capacity building":
creation of resilience
Global exploitation
Informal and black economy
Science
The international community
Justice Impartiality
Humanitarianism
Hijacking of assistance
Relief
Robbery and rape of victims
Total war
Politicisation of relief suppies
What future?
Conclusions
FUTUROLOGY
• at the world scale, one or more great events will cause a drastic reorganisation disaster preparedness
• the catalyst event may be a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, or a biological or radioactive incident.
• losses in disaster will continue to increase steeply
• poverty and vulnerability will define ever more closely the areas of greatest susceptibility to disasters
Pandemics
Great geophysical
events: volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes,
extra- terrestrial impacts,
etc.
Radio- active
emissions
Toxic spills
Epidemics, epizoozics, epiphytotics
CBRN
Emerging risks...
In civil protection history does tend to repeat itself...
Lisbon earthquake, 1755, and New York
attacks, 2001
History can help us to understand the present and predict the future....
....it is a vital element of planning scenarios.
• the job of the emergency manager will become more and more complex
• emergency planning will have to tackle new kinds of event
• emergency management will very slowly become a profession
• the level of international participation in disasters will rise.
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
STUDIES
SEVEN SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT
Criminal justice
and forensic
science
and perhaps an eighth...
Sociology
Psychology
& psychiatry
Economic &
financial studies
Development
studies
Disaster medicine
& epidemiology
Physical &
construction
sciences
Geography &
anthropology:
cultural (human)
anthropology
Ecology
Geology
(& Geomorphology)
Geophysics
(inc. Seismology)
Vulcanology Climatology
Hydraulics
Hydrology
Meteorology
Architecture
Civil engineering
Geotechnical engineering
Structural engineering
Mechanical &
electrical engineering Information &
communication
technology (ICT)
Computer technology
Remote sensing
Risk analysis (inc.
risk identification,
estimation,
management &
communication)
Cartography
Development studies
Economics
Geography, History
Jurisprudence & legal stds
Urban & regional planning
Mass media studies
Psychology
Sociology
Epidemiology
Nursing
Nutrition
Pharmacology
General medicine
Surgery &
emergency medicine
Public health, hygiene
& epidemiology
Veterinary sciences
Health sciences Social & spatial sciences
Computational
& analytical
sciences
Construction sciences
Atmospheric & water sciences
Earth & environmental sciences
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
CONSTITUENT DISCIPLINES
Emergency management training and education
B A
S IC
C ONC EP
T S
HA
ZA
RD
AN
ALY
SIS
EMERGENCYPLANNING
EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
DIS
AS
TE
R
SO
CIO
LO
GY
AN
D
PS
YC
HO
LO
GY
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION
PLANNING
PU
BL
ICIN
FO
RM
AT
ION
MA
NA
GE
ME
NT
METHODS OF
RISK MITIGATION
FIE
LD
EX
ER
CIS
ES
Recognition and an institutional role for the
professional figure
Certification of competence
Training programmes
Emerging professional
figure
Policies and legislation
Research Experience
Organi- sation
Emergency planning and organisation of security systems
Warning and preparations;
damage prevention measures
Emergency action and damage
limitation measures
Restoration of basic services
Safety and security
measures
Integration through planning
Linkages
Mitigation and risk reduction
Preparation and warning
Emergency action
Recovery and
reconstruction
Planning • scenarios • risk analysis • emergency plans • protocols
Organisation • comand structure • task forces • operations centres • communications
Preparation • education & training • exercises • plan dissemination • revision of plans
Resources • materials • vehicles, equipment • communications • manpower
CREATION OF A NEW CULTURE OF CIVIL
PROTECTION
POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPLOITED
DEMAND
NEEDS
SUPPLY
Public participation in decision making
Government paternalism
Inclusive outcomes
Social exclusion
Discontent
Satisfaction
Discontent
...or...
(must be informed)
Sustainable emergency management:-
• is centred upon the local level (but is harmonised from above)
• has the support and involvement of the population
• is based on plans that are fully disseminated and frequently revised
• is a fundamental, every-day service for the population and is taken seriously.
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