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Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables
Manager
BSRIA WMI
January 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Worlds largest traditional heating markets
Growth in traditional heating, 2013
Development by type of traditional heating products
Penetration of renewables in the US and in Europe
World renewable markets
2020 world outlook - HRV, Heat pumps, solar thermals
European winning renewables by 2030
2
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating Market Value by region, 2012
North America
Radiators 0%
UFH 7%
WH 74%
CB 5%
DB** 14%
Total: US$ 5,658 million
Radiators 1%
UFH 6%
WH 79%
CB 2%
DB 12%
Japan
Total: US$ 5,214 million
Radiators 23%
UFH 11%
WH 23%
CB 4%
DB 39%
Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million
• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada Europe Japan China
352 778 127 1,360
3
China Total: US$ 7,100 million
Radiators 20%
UFH 19%
WH 47%
CB 5%
DB 9%
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Growth in traditional heating US vs Europe
4
% Growth in 2013(e) by type of heating
products
7.0%
6.1%
2.5%
1.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1.8%
-0.8%
2.4%
1.2%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
DB CB WH Radiators UfH
USA
Europe
DB 14%
CB 5%
Rad+UFH
7%
WH 74%
DB 39%
CB 4%
Rad+UFH 34%
WH 23%
DB 4%
CB 0%
Rad+UFH 2%
WH 94%
US heating market by volume
by value
DB 12% CB
1%
Rad+UFH 75%
WH 12%
Europe heating market by volume
by value
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Visible trend
towards higher
quality boilers in
China & Russia
5
Main changes in traditional Heating markets,
2013
Importance
Urgency
Energy efficiency targets
drive condensing boiler sales
Biomass boilers are
growing but still
a niche market
Increasing penetration
of wall-hung
boilers
Gas-fuelled boilers are
leading the market
Move towards
central heating
Mature market
driven by
replacement
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Trend in Domestic Boiler Technology overview
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Japan
China
NAmerica
Europe
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 total NCd: 5.2mln units
2016 total NCd: 5.4 mln units
Sales of Non-Condensing units Sales of Condensing units
Th
ou
sa
nd
un
its
Thousand u
nits
2012 total Cd: 4mln units
2016 total Cd: 5.1 mln units
Growth
28% Growth
5%
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Traditional & renewable space heating
US vs Europe
7
US sales of heat
generators, volume
Europe sales of heat
generators, volume
‘000 units ‘000 units
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012 2013
Dry distribution HP
Hydronic HP
Non-condensingboilers
Condensing boilers
Furnaces
Heat pumps
account for 5.2%
of sales in 2013
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2012 2013
micro CHP
Heat Pumps
Non-condensingboilers
Condensing boilers
Renewables
account for 4.8%
of sales in 2013
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Traditional & renewable water heating
US vs Europe
8
US sales of
water heaters, volume
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2012 2013
SHW HP
ST Water Heaters
Gas instantaneous
Electricinstantaneous
Gas storage
Electric storage
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2012 2013
Renewables
account for 0.4%
of sales in 2013
Europe sales of
water heaters, volume Renewables
account for 5.2%
of sales in 2013
‘000 units ‘000 units
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Renewable Market Value by region, 2012
* Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy,
Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland.
Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland
9
Europe* Total: US$ 4,604 mln
El. Hydronic HP
10%
ST systems 13%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 21%
Heat recovery
56%
El. HP 44.7%
Solar Thermal s
27.6%
Gas HP) 1.1%
CHP/ Fuel Cells.5%
Heat recovery
21.1%
USA Total: US$ 343.0 mln
El. Hydronic
HP 75%
ST systems
2%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 22%
Heat recovery
1%
Japan Total: US$ 3,207 mln
El. Hydronic
HP 11%
ST systems 45%
Gas HP 0%
CHP/ Fuel Cells 43%
Heat recovery
1%
China Total: US$ 10,116 mln
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat recovery 2020 outlook
10
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020
14.1%
23.3%
19.5%
35.2%
3.0%
10.3%
14.4% 12.3% 12.7%
14.0%
9.7% 8.2%
6.3%
2.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Th
ou
sa
nd
s u
nit
s
2012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020growth
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat Pump 2020 Outlook
11
22% 17%
10%
19%
7%
15%
4% 6%
18% 18%
7% 1%
51%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,0002012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
China
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 growth units
growth units
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12
System integration in family homes in Europe
Will gain
importance
after ErP will
take effect in
2015
Will gain
importance with
increasing
share of RES in
electricity
production
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Renewable technologies likely to be installed in
European dwellings in the long term
Existing dwellings:
Electric Heat Pump
13
Intelligent controls
Fuel Cell
New dwellings:
Electric Heat Pump
Intelligent controls
Photovoltaic
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Renewables sales curve in Europe until 2035
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2012 2015 2020 2030 2035
Heat Pumps
Hybrid HP
ST systems
micro CHP
Fuel Cells
Powerful drivers for renewables after 2020
Units*
*Illustrative European sales level
15 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: [email protected]
