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Is ‘Web 3.0’ where we use something else instead?
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Is the Open Webthe Platform for Tomorrow?
Is ‘Web 3.0’ where we use something else instead?
So far, the web has won the platform war
Why?
4 Reasons:
Zero InstallLazy TextUI ModelOpenness
Benefits of Zero Install
•Saves time
•Builds trust
•Reduces clicks
•Saves disk space
Lazy Text means web pages are:-hackable-debuggable-learnable-Postel’s Law compliant
The Web UI discourages:
• Overlapping windows
• Complex dialogs
• Hidden options
• Deep menus
4 Reasons:
Zero InstallLazy TextUI ModelOpenness
Is the web good enough for tomorrow?
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
Javascript is currently slow
Which means:
• Slower everything
• Smaller page transforms
• Jerky annimation
• Weaker cryptography
• Less data manipulation
• Wasted user time
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
SVG/Canvas are not in IE
Which means:
• Pages are bigger
• Slower everything
• Maps are images
• More plug-ins
• Server rendering hacks
• Charts can’t interact
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
Available fonts are limited
Which means:
• Headlines are images
• Search is less effective
• More server load
• Less readable pages
• Things don’t look right
• Unhappy marketeers
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
Video isn’t part of HTML
Which means:
• More plugins
• Bad page/video interaction
• Codec confusion
• More security risks
• No video mash-ups
• Expensive tools
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
Local storage is a hack
Which means:
• Offline is hard
• Slower page load
• More complex servers
• More security risks
• Slower page use
• Everything is server based
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
3D is basically impossible
Which means:
• Poorer presentations
• Poorer graphics
• Worse visualization
• Less games
• Slower pages
• Bigger page downloads
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
Too many design mistakes
Which means:
• Lack of trust
• Users scared off the ‘Net
• ‘Identity theft’ is real
• The possibility of cyberwar
• Safety becomes a lottery
• Extortion is possible
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
It’s all too hard to program
Which means:
• Developers fail
• Projects fail
• Less reliability
• Lower security
• Libraries like Dojo/DWR/...
• Library selection issues
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
HTTP is limitted
Which means:
• Less interactivity
• Wasted network traffic
• More server complexity
• Everything is server based
• Peer to peer impossible
• Mega-hacks like comet
• Wasted developer time
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
There is still a shocking amount left to get right
Is the web good enough for tomorrow?
(Not yet)
Do the failings of the Web mean we need more options?
And if so,what are theoptions?
Zero InstallHard Easy
Lazy TextUnreadable Readable
UI ModelDesktop Web
OpennessClosed Open
Evolutionary SpeedSlow Fast
Is Openness the enemy of Evolutionary Speed?
JavaFX / Flex / Silverlight are all young
• It’s easy to move fast without the constraints of many users
• So current rapid evolution is no guarantee of future growth
Parallels between closed systems and monopolies:
• Both restrict choice
• Both give vendors more power
0
25
50
75
100
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
1.5
2.0
1.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
7.0
M2
M2.1
M3
M4.0
M4.5
M5.0
(U3)
U4.0
U5.0 M5.2 8.0
0
25
50
75
100
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
1.5
2.0
1.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
7.0
M2
M2.1
M3
M4.0
M4.5
M5.0
(U3)
U4.0
U5.0 M5.2 8.0
16 major releases of IE Across 4 platforms
2 major releases of IE? Now only on Windows
6 years
IE got to 90% market share in
2002
1996 20082002 6 years
0
25
50
75
100
‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
2.0
1.0
3.04.0
Netscape Usage Share
4.5
6.0
5.0
4.8
7.0
If Netscape had not been a monopoly;
It might not have been sidetracked into servers
If Netscape had not been a monopoly;
Would it have chosen the risky rewrite path?
Ideal position:
• Multiple implementations
• At least one Open Source
• None with a monopoly position
The web has seen 3 browser monopolies
• Mosaic
• Netscape
• Internet Explorer
We may soon have the first sustainablenon-monopoly situation
How can we encourage the web to evolve faster?
More browsers are generally a good thing
A browser can’t all compete on all fronts at all times
There are now 5 good browsers, but they share components
Browsers should be encouraged to take risks
Browser Wars 1.0 took place before we had the basics right
Now the basics are much better, we can risk another browser war without spilling users blood
Is the web attacking the issues we logged earlier?
What the web is missing ...
Speed
Vector Graphics
Fonts
Video
Local Storage
3D
Security
API Simplicity
Flexible Comms
TraceMonkey/Chrome/Squirrelfish
SVG+Canvas in most (not IE)
Firefox+Safari working on it
HTML5 and Minefield
Gears, HTML5, IE8
Minefield
Content restrictions / SOO
Dojo / DWR / jQuery / etc
WebSocket
Boat anchors of the web ...• Netscape 4• Internet Explorer 6
TL;DR
Should the update process be transparent?
• The inputs to the question “Should I upgrade” are usually too complex
• Asking too often is annoying
• The upgrade is inevitable given time
• Sometimes a “Delay” option makes sense
The web has scalability built in like nothing else
But there are still many missing features
There are options to add features to the system
Closed systems are not long term answers
Ideally we need multiple competing solutions
The web is getting better; auto-upgrade helps
Is the Open Web the Platform for Tomorrow?
Questions?
Who decides if it carries on winning?
What if there is only one effective browser vendor?
Do the failings of the Web mean we need more options?
And if so,what are theoptions?
Monopolies: Good / Bad?
Monopolies: Good / Bad?
Monopolies are a form of Absolute Power (and that’s not good)
A mono-culture is easier for the developers
A mono-culture is easier for the developers
(but the goal is to be better for the users)
Plug-ins: Good / Bad?
Plug-ins: Good / Bad?A plugin is just a ‘browser’ in a browser
The History of the Web
© Jo
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© Jo
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r. 20
08. A
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© Jo
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r. 20
08. A
ll R
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s R
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ved
© Jo
e W
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r. 20
08. A
ll R
ight
s R
eser
ved
© Jo
e W
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r. 20
08. A
ll R
ight
s R
eser
ved
© Jo
e W
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r. 20
08. A
ll R
ight
s R
eser
ved
4 things the web needs to carry on winning ...
Features
Reliability
Trust
Momentum
Features
Signs of Disfunction
Signs of Disfunction
Zillions of toolkits are a sign that something is wrong.
If browsers were perfect we wouldn’t need Dojo or DWR or any of the other toolkits
Signs of Disfunction
What do the toolkits do for us?
• Abstraction
• Bug fixing
• Simplification
• Harmonization
Signs of Disfunction
How do toolkits harm us?
• Downloading
• Integration
Browser Features
Browser Developer Todo List:
• Make ajax toolkits irrelevant
Browser Features
The down side of browser evolution
• Do new features break old features?
• It’s slow
• Ubiquity is vital
Browser Features
How far can we evolve without vendor support?
• Comet
• 3D using VML / SVG / Canvas / etc
• Storage and offline
Reliability
Reliability
Local or Global?
• Depending on small scale reliability can hurt
• Large scale reliability requires anticipation of failure
• Markup defines the Open Web through reliability
Reliability
The web has some great features borrowed from Unix
• Small, independent units
• Linked through debuggable text based protocols
It adds features from living things
• The ability to cope with failure
• That can adapt when the world changes
Trust
Trust
What do you worry about when using the web?
• Web worms
• Privacy invasion
• Data in transit
• Identity Theft
• Browser Security
• How to build something trustable
Trust
What do users need to build trust
• Lack of spelling mistakes
• Reliable patterns
• Principle of least astonishment
• Time
Trust
What does the web need?
• Content Restrictions
• An anti CSRF marker for cookies
• Sandboxing
• Less brittle models of building relationships
• SMASH, XIP, etc.
Momentum
Momentum
What people know today defineshow they think about the future
Momentum
Web Standards:
• Not all have been transparent
• Working groups break down when the participants don’t play ball
• Adding IQ to a large group reduces the IQ of the group
• Working groups don’t test for fitness
What if we don’t get the tools we need?
ToolkitsFlashGears