Overview• Representing Local Businesses Owners

• Many businesses are location-dependento Example: yacht clubs must be located on a lot with water access.

• Heavily Impacted by barrier island tourismo Lodging, Food & Beverage, Retail, Recreation, and

Transportation

o LBI businesses represent 32% of total tourism spending for Ocean County

• 2011 Total Tourism revenues of $1.2B

LBI Tourism Economics

Tax Contribution

• Generated nearly $300M in total taxes in 2011

• 3% of all tourism-initiated taxes for NJ

• Ocean County’s 200k+ households would need to pay additional $826/year to match current levels

Job Creation

• Directly supports 20,300+ jobs

• 14% of all Ocean County employment

• 83% of tourism spending stays in Ocean County

Source: http://nj1015.com/files/2012/10/SOCC-2011-Econ-Impact-Final-10-2012.pdf

Environmental Analysis• Taxpayer equality issues• 5th amendment concerns• Federal flood insurance• EPA and other agencies• Has decision-making power and

wide sphere of influence

• Save wetlands, estuaries, aquifers, and water supply

• Limited power to affect decisions but can influence

• Value empirical evidence• Advocate immediate

solutions to climate change• Limited power to make

decisions but can influence

• Gentrification• Rely on constant engineering• Insurance costs• Resistant to moving but have

limited power

• Appease local populations• Concerned about tourism and

tax revenues• Power to make decisions and

influence federal government

• Source of revenue for the state and county

• Attract and maintain tourism • Advocates for status quo• Sewage pollution and littering

Climate Change AssumptionsPrecipitation

• Northern region of the U.S. projected to become wetter

• More intense Atlantic hurricaneso 1.8°F increase in tropical sea surface temperatures

o Stronger winds, increased rainfall

Sea Level Rise

• Melting glaciers and ice caps

• Since 1870 sea levels have rose 8 inches

• Conservatively projected 1.5 ft. rise in New York and New Jersey by 2050, 2.3 ft. by 2100o Some scientists project 6 ft. rise by 2100

Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Climate Change Impact

Storm Surge Impact Lower ManhattanYear 2100Assumes 5-ft rise in sea levels

Impact to Barrier Islands• Shoreline erosion as sea levels rise

o Loss of beaches

o Homes and businesses threatened

o Decreased tourism

o Loss of jobs

• Increased frequency and severity of stormso Coastal flooding leads to property damage

o Increased insurance premiums

o Sea level has risen consistently since 1993

o Effects of severe storms = negative affects

Impact to Barrier Islands

September 2005 October 2004

Strategic Alternatives

Benefits Disadvantages

Retreat

• Minimizes human suffering

• Less expensive than armoring

• Allow restoration of flood buffering wetlands and natural shoreline

• Protection costs avoided

• Fewer post-disaster decisions to abandon developed land

• Businesses close

• Political quagmire; legal and equity issues

• Negative impact to tourism and tax collection

• Incremental costs– e.g. site clean up to remove toxics

• In-migration land use conflicts

• Short term vs. long term costs

Benefits Disadvantages

No Coastal Protection

• Provides natural erosion and habitat

• Natural vegetation

• Prevents dramatic shifts in natural ecosystem

• Critical components to local geology

• Loss of business

• Re-filling island in short term

• Thermal expansion of coastal waters

• Extreme construction costs

• Degradation of natural environment

Benefits Disadvantages

• Prevents island from breaking apart

• Minimally disruptive

• Can be done gradually

• Businesses do not relocate

• Local jobs can be retained

• $1.2B in tourism revenue

• Maintain tax revenue for local governments

• More costly than other options

• Disruption of marine life and erosion of wetlands

• Potential tax increase to pay for project

• Logistics concerns

• No storm surge protection

Raise the Island

Benefits Disadvantages

Construct Levees

• No institutional changes/ physical interference

• Beach can be maintained

• Avoid inundation

• Constant Monitoring

• Storm surge protection

• Must abandon properties

• + $$$ for sand

• Waterfront aesthetics

• Hoist boast / climb over

• Initial investment: pump system, land, & construction

• Constant maintenance

• Interference w/ sea life

Costs of Alternatives

Adjusted for inflation

SLR Levee

Raise the

Island Retreat

No

Protection

1 100$ 202$ 79$ 106$

2 833$ 547$ 209$ 887$

3 977$ 1,002$ 342$ 1,619$

4 1,121$ 1,509$ 474$ 2,972$

5 1,265$ 2,012$ 591$ 3,341$

6 1,409$ 2,515$ 712$ 3,709$

7 1,553$ 3,022$ 828$ Loss

8 1,697$ 3,523$ 945$ Loss

EPA projected sea level rise

Recommendation

Raise the island• Saves hundreds of small local businesses and

preserves thousands of jobs

• $1.2B in revenue generation annually

• Positive tax impact for state and local governments

• Preferred over levees• Unspoiled ocean views• No disruption to businesses reliant on boats• Costs less than levees at EPA projection of 2ft sea level rise• Can be implemented gradually

Implementation

• Partner with local and state governments

• Construction done in off-season months to minimize impact to tourists

• Project funding via:• Federal and state grants• Toll revenues

• Marketing campaign highlighting greater LBI area

• Increased emphasis on environmental sustainability

Questions?