1. The Changing U.S. Economy: What Does It Mean for Oklahoma?

• Chad Wilkerson

• Oklahoma City Branch Executive

• Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Governors Council for Workforce and Economic Development April 10, 2006

2. I. The U.S. Industrial Structure of the Future

3. The structure of the U.S. economy will change over the next 5-10 years. Why?

• The short answer is:

Because it always has. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

4. The longer answer includes several inter-related factors:

• • • • Changing consumer tastes

• • • • Increasing globalization

• • • • Changing workforce skills

• • • • Technological improvements

5.

• The latest projections go through 2014 and were finalized in late 2005.

How will the structure of the U.S. economy change over the next 5-10 years?

• Obviously no one knows exactly.

• One respected source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose economists do detailed 10-year projections of industrial and occupational employment every other year.

6. 15 U.S. industries projected to ADD jobs the fastest through 2014*

• * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees

Business services 3. Management consulting services 5. Facilities support services 6. Employment services 7. Office administrative services 13. Accounting, tax, & payroll services High-tech services 2. Software publishers 8. Computer systems design Health and social services 1. Home health care services 4. Residential care facilities 9. Outpatient & laboratory services 10. Child day care services 12. Offices of health practitioners 15. Rehabilitation services Education services 11. Other educational services 14. Colleges & universities Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. 15 U.S. industries projected to SHED jobs the fastest through 2014*

• * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees

Nondurable manufacturing 1. Cut and sew apparel mfg. 2. Fabric mills 3. Basic chemical mfg. 6. Rubber product mfg. 8. Synthetic materials mfg. 13. Pulp & paper mills 14. Petroleum & coal mfg. Durable manufacturing 4. Industry machinery mfg. 5. Electrical equipment mfg. 7. Foundries 10. Computer mfg. 12. Metalworking machinery mfg. 15. Other machinery mfg. Natural resources 9. Sawmills & wood preservation 11. Crop production Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. II. Industrial Structure and Future Oklahoma Job and Income Growth

9.

• In addition, states with favorable industrial structures tend to grow even faster than one would expect, due to spillover growth to other industries.

How much impact does a changing U.S. industrial structure have on state job growth?

• Research suggests about 15-20 percent of the variation in state job growth rates over 10-year periods can be explained by industrial structure.

10. Annual employment growth, 2004-2014 if states industries grow at projected national rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1.30%-1.50% 1.20%-1.29% 1.11%-1.19% 0.98%-1.10%

11. The 10 industries contributing the most to differences between OK and US projections Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Small Positive Semiconductor & electronic mfg. 10 Large Negative Support activities for mining 9 Large Negative Federal government 8 Small Negative Educational services 7 Large Negative Nonagriculture self-employed workers 6 Large Positive Employment services 5 Small Positive Cut and sew apparel mfg. 4 Small Negative Computer systems design 3 Large Negative Oil and gas extraction 2 Large Negative Agricultural products (grain, livestock) 1 Presence? Contribution? Industry or Small Negative Due to Large Positive or

12. Oklahoma City is projected to have a higher share of the long-term job growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent

13. The net effect of expected changes in the mix of jobs is to raise average salaries in OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. U.S. and Oklahoma job growth is projected to be fastest among high-paying occupations Projected Annual Job Growth by Average Pay Through 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. III. Meeting Oklahomas Future Workforce Needs

16. From 1994-2004, OK met its employment demand largely by population growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Average annual growth in employment and working age population, 1994-2004 Percent

17. but also by increased labor force participation Oklahoma United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Meeting future job demand could be a little tougher Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Projected annual growth in employment and working age population, 2004-2014 Percent

19. Non-metro Oklahoma may have an advantage: an untapped labor supply Source: U.S. Census Bureau

20. Oklahoma must ensure potential workers obtain the training necessary to succeed Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Oklahomas share of college graduates is slightly lower than in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

22. Conclusions

• The industrial structure of the United States is expected to continue to change in the years ahead

• Oklahomas intermediate-term outlook for jobs and incomes, based on industrial structure, is slightly less favorable than the nations

• A challenge for Oklahoma heading forward will be finding and training the workers needed to fill the jobs of the future