1
Many tin mine projects are based in developed nations, that have a mining heritage, such as Australia and Canada and various countries in Europe. Clearly when it comes to costs developing nations have a big advantage in labour rates, which underlies much of the theory behind globalisation and the rebalancing of the world economy. However as we previously discussed alluvial operations aren’t really affected much by labour rates, its fuel that is key. It is the hard rock operations that are more vulnerable to labour costs. As such the geographical element of the analysis focuses on not only how quickly grades are declining in Asia, compared to resource grades at potential hard rock projects in the developed world. But also how quickly fuel prices are rising in the developing world compared to how quickly labour costs are rising in the developed world. The GFC means that labour rates (except perhaps Australia) in the developed world are likely to be fairly stagnant, however fuel prices seem likely to continue rising. For the hard rock artisanal miners in South America, it is more an issue of developing world labour rate increases versus developed world labour rate increases. Whilst the developing world operations are currently much cheaper, costs will rise faster, and this will only be compounded by falling grades in these regions. This is also a critical factor for the hard rock production in China, which we see as stalling rather than growing partly due to these cost increases and partly due to government policy to reduce the amount of mining and increase imports in general.

The Tin Mine of Tomorrow: Defining the Geological and Economic Parameters - Dec 2012 - John P. Sykes & Peter Kettle - ITRI / Greenfields Research / University of Western Australia

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Page 1: The Tin Mine of Tomorrow: Defining the Geological and Economic Parameters - Dec 2012 - John P. Sykes & Peter Kettle - ITRI / Greenfields Research / University of Western Australia

Ma

ny t

in m

ine p

roje

cts

are

base

d in

de

ve

lope

d n

atio

ns, th

at h

ave

a m

inin

g h

erita

ge

, su

ch a

s A

ustr

alia

an

d C

ana

da

an

d

va

riou

s c

ou

ntr

ies in

Eu

rop

e. C

learly w

hen

it co

me

s to

co

sts

deve

lopin

g n

atio

ns h

ave

a b

ig a

dva

nta

ge

in

la

bo

ur

rate

s, w

hic

h

und

erlie

s m

uch o

f th

e th

eo

ry b

eh

ind g

loba

lisa

tion

and

th

e r

eba

lancin

g o

f th

e w

orld e

con

om

y. H

ow

eve

r a

s w

e p

revio

usly

dis

cu

ssed

allu

via

l o

pe

ratio

ns a

ren

’t r

eally

aff

ecte

d m

uch b

y la

bo

ur

rate

s, its f

uel t

hat is

ke

y. It

is t

he h

ard

ro

ck o

pe

ratio

ns

that a

re m

ore

vu

lnera

ble

to

la

bo

ur

co

sts

. A

s s

uch th

e g

eog

raph

ica

l e

lem

en

t o

f th

e a

na

lysis

fo

cuse

s o

n n

ot o

nly

how

qu

ickly

gra

de

s a

re d

eclin

ing

in

Asia

, co

mp

are

d to

re

sou

rce

gra

de

s a

t p

ote

ntia

l h

ard

ro

ck p

roje

cts

in

th

e d

eve

lope

d w

orld

. B

ut a

lso

how

qu

ickly

fu

el p

rices a

re r

isin

g in

th

e d

eve

lopin

g w

orld c

om

pa

red

to

how

qu

ickly

la

bo

ur

co

sts

are

ris

ing

in

th

e d

eve

lope

d

wo

rld.

Th

e G

FC

me

an

s th

at la

bo

ur

rate

s (

exce

pt p

erh

ap

s A

ustr

alia

) in

th

e d

eve

lope

d w

orld a

re lik

ely

to

be f

airly

sta

gn

an

t,

how

eve

r fu

el p

rices s

eem

lik

ely

to

co

ntin

ue

ris

ing

. F

or

the h

ard

ro

ck a

rtis

ana

l m

iners

in

So

uth

Am

erica, it is m

ore

an issu

e

of d

eve

lopin

g w

orld la

bo

ur

rate

incre

ase

s v

ers

us d

eve

lope

d w

orld la

bo

ur

rate

incre

ase

s. W

hils

t th

e d

eve

lopin

g w

orld

ope

ratio

ns a

re c

urr

ently m

uch c

hea

pe

r, c

osts

will

ris

e f

aste

r, a

nd

th

is w

ill o

nly

be c

om

po

und

ed

by f

alli

ng

gra

de

s in

th

ese

reg

ions. T

his

is a

lso

a c

ritica

l fa

cto

r fo

r th

e h

ard

ro

ck p

rod

uction

in

Chin

a, w

hic

h w

e s

ee

as s

talli

ng

ra

the

r th

an

gro

win

g

part

ly d

ue

to

th

ese

co

st in

cre

ase

s a

nd

part

ly d

ue

to

go

ve

rnm

ent p

olic

y t

o r

edu

ce th

e a

mo

un

t o

f m

inin

g a

nd

in

cre

ase

im

port

s

in g

ene

ral.