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How to build an attribution solution in a day- well maybe a couple of days ;)Dr. Phillip Law
• By the end of this Talk I want to give you the tools and methods to be able to go away and build your own solution.
• I started this on Monday and got something useable in a day, then it took me a couple of days to polish this up and iron out any bugs.
• It’s not perfect, but give you an attribution solution with contextual data and importantly the power to slice and dice.
Overview• Blurb About Me and the Company I work For.• Quick Overview of Rules Based attribution.• Discuss the tools I used and why, this is effectively an ETL process using
Python and Tableau.• How I extracted the data.• What Transformations I did using Python.• What Transformations I did in Tableau.• Run through the models in Tableau.• Limitations (Scalability)• Next Steps (Improve the models, Allocation of Credit, Bayesian attribution)
About me: Dr. Phillip Law
© 2016 YOUR FAVOURITE STORY ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
.
To craft powerful digital experiences to help our clientsgrow
•Our Mission
CLIENTS LOGOS
1. Improving Marketing Performance
Improving conversion throughout the
customer journey and reducing inefficiency.
In a world where customer experience is the brand experience.
Digital has great power.
2. Brand Building 3. Future Proofing
It is particularly important to work to future web standards
and consumer patterns to create lasting solutions.
Reporting & implementation(Adobe and GA)
SEO & PPC
Data Science (modelling)
Data Visualisation (D3, Tableau)
Growth Audits
Optimisation (A/B Testing, Videos)
Analytics
Attribution
Attribution Model Types (Sort of)
RULES BASE BAYESIAN
Attribution Model Types?
RULES BASE WEIGHTING
2. USE THE SHAPLEY VALUE (GAME THEORY)
BAYESIAN MODELS
Types of Models1.First Touch2.Last Touch3.Linear/Evens4.Starter Player Closer5.Temporal6.Spatial
(Raw Data Feed)
(Credit to Marketing Channels)
Right Tools for the Job
Transformation
Visualise
Raw Data Feed
Raw Data Feed
Because of file size you’ll probably need to get it delivered to an FTP
You can ask for the full data feed, this file is delivered hourly and contains all data, this file is Huge, you can get this delivered to D3 on the amazon cloud, which is nice
Raw Data Feed
Because of file size you’ll probably need to get it delivered to an FTP
You can ask for the full data feed, this file is delivered hourly and contains all data, this file is Huge, you can get this delivered to D3 on the amazon cloud, which is nice
Process this Data File in Python (4 Steps)(Did this whole thing in 140 lines of code)
Step 1: Clean file (remove all page views where page views equals zero), flag fist touch point in visit, count page views in
visits, create sort key.
Step 2: Group by tracking ID, and sort by time (need to sort by the sort key), flag conversion event (Only one conversion Event
per Visitor)
Step 3: Read in file backwards, create attribution window, count touch points from conversion, write conversion time to the same
row as the conversion touchpoint.
Step 4: Re-order file and step three reversed the process.
Next Step to Open in Tableau
Next Steps
Fair Allocation of
Credit
Traditional rules for assigning credit are arbitrary not and do not reflect the true weighing of a touch point.
Weightings are skewed towards channels that retarget
There is a method from game theory that has been mathematically proven to allocate credit in a fair way.
Shapley Value
PPC Social
$100
PPC Social $230
PPC Social
$230
$50
PPC $90
Social $85
$100
PPC
Social Email
PPC Social Email
$55
$150
$160
No Touchpoint
PPC Social Email
PPC Email Social
Social PPC Email
Social Email PPC
Email PPC Social
Email Social PPC
PPC Social Email
40 10 130
40 60 80
15 35 130
70 35 75
95 80 5
70 105 5
55 54 71
Average
Only Considers People
Who Convert
BAYESIAN
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶)
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶)
𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶∩𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶∩𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶∩𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑃𝑃𝐶∩𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 )
𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 |𝑃𝑃𝐶 ) 𝑝 (𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡 |𝑃𝑃𝐶 )Probability they would have
converted anyway
Difference in probabilities is the impact that channel has on
conversion
∆ 𝑝
Probability someone converts given that they have seen a PPC
ad
Advantages
• Using the Shapley value provides a more “true” allocation of the influence of channels.
• Bayesian model takes into account user journey that don’t convert. Understand unconverted users that are the best prospect of conversion.
£5000
£750
31st October
