Latest trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets

Latest trends in the World

Traditional & Renewable Heating

Markets

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables

Manager

BSRIA WMI

March 2015

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

Worlds heating markets by region

Main trends in traditional heating, 2014

World boiler & WH market overview

Focus on Europe – what is shaping the markets

Combined / Hybrid heating systems

Growing importance of controls

District heating and HIU

2


Radiators 23%

UFH 10% WH

20%

CB 5%

DB 42%

Radiators 0% UFH

4%

WH 71%

CB 3%

DB/Furnaces 22%

World Heating Market Value by region, 2014

• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,

Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech

Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.

Population (million inhabitants)

USA + Canada Europe Japan China

352 778 127 1,360

3

North America Total: 8.9 €billion

Europe* Total: 14.9 €billion

Radiators 1% UFH

6%

WH 79%

CB 2%

DB 12%

Japan Total: 3.9 €billion

China

Total: 6.8 €billion

Radiators 16%

UFH 23%

WH 48%

CB 4%

DB 9%


Controls & energy

management are

growing

Overall slow

down

in sales of

renewables

Increasing

gasification in

China, Russia

and S. Korea

4

Main trends in traditional Heating Markets,

2013 - 2017

Importance

Urgency

Move towards

Communal heating

Substitution

of boilers by

renewables

in new build

Increasing

penetration

of wall-hung

boilers

Gas-fuelled boilers

dominance grows

• Low oil/gas

prices

• Push for

reduction of

CO2 emissions

• Energy

security issues

• Economics

Global Drivers:

ErP

and other efficiency

targets drive sales

of condensing

products


World domestic boiler market overview

2013-2017

5

‘000 units

Source: BSRIA

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

2013

2014

2017

Europe

-1%

Asia / ME

+15%

NA

+5%

Yearly sales of domestic boilers by country


World Water Heating markets 2014

6

World water heating market

Volume, 2014

Includes: GSWH, GIWH, ESWH, EIWH,

STWH, HPWH

Total 103.7 mln units

Largest water heating markets by technology, 2014

000 units

Europe 13%

Russia 3% North

America 11%

Brazil 26% India

2%

China 28%

Japan 4%

Saudi Arabia

3% Others 10%

0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

Brazil China Europe North America

Electric storage Gas storageElectric instantaneous Gas instantaneousST Water Heaters SHW HP


Water Heating market – Europe

Technology overview 2014

7

European Water Heating market,

by type, 2014

DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018

• Electric storage dominate the market

but their share will decrease.

• The share of renewable WH systems

is set to grow thanks to DHW HP

uptake.

• Condensing WH will become

prevalent from 2018 due to the

legislation.

Source: BSRIA, based on market analysis for 19 European countries

ST Water Heaters

3% DHW HP

2%

Combi boilers 34%

Electric storage 44%

Gas storage 1%

Electric instantaneous

8%

Gas instantaneous

8%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F2018F


• c

What is shaping the European market

European Legislation

National Building Regulations

Pushing towards low / zero energy houses

• c Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (ErP) Directive

• c EU Plan for Renewable Policy after 2020

EU Roadmap 2050

Pushing towards decarbonized electricity

Smart grid

to balance

S/D

Pushing for energy efficient products and systems

Energy security issues • c


Single dwellings

Multi-dwellings

Commercial / public

Industrial

Micro-grid

PV

CHP Fuel Cell

Small wind

Impact on buildings

Increased

share of RES Decentralized

electricity

generation

Management of

energy demand

/ supply

Low energy houses

Passive House

(42 kWh/m² per year

Zero Energy House

Positive Energy House

Smart Meters

Smart Grids

Energy Storage

EMS/ BEMS

Smart Buildings

EPBD


Impact on products

10

• Increase in Combined/Hybrid systems

Heating products embracing Controls

• Increase in the importance of controls

• Shift towards condensing products


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2017 2013 2017 2013 2017 2013 2017

EU* Rest of Europe* US China

non-condensing

condensing

Technology split in residential boilers (and furnaces in the US) sales in world regions, 2013 / 2017

*EU estimations based on data for UK, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Austria

Rest of Europe includes Turkey and Russia

World Domestic Boiler Technology overview

11


World Commercial Boilers Technology overview

12

000 units 000 units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013 2017

Commercial condensing Commercial non-condensing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2017

000 units

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2017

000 units


Combined heating installations today

15% 6%

3%

76%

Boiler-assisted installation With solar collectors

With biomass boilers/ stoves Standalone installation

European heat pump market by type

of installation, volume, 2013/2014

European solar thermal market by

type of installation, volume, 2013/2014

74%

12%

7% 2%

5%

Solar thermals installed with a boiler

Solar thermals installed with electric water heater

Solar thermasl installed with heat pump

Solar thermals with other type

Stand alone installation


Combined heating installations 2020

• Driven by low / zero / plus energy home standards

• Driven by energy prices (zero energy bill homes)

• Driven by legislation

Heat pump + Solar thermals

Heat pumps + PV

Fuel cell hybrid system

Gas con. boiler + PV

or

PV Thermal+

Heat pump

15 Excellence in Market Intelligence 15

Sales of hydronic controls in Europe, 2013 - 2020

European Control market outlook

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

2013

2020

CAGR

7% CAGR

10%

CAGR

5%

TRV, 63%

MRV,

37%

Includes: UK, Germany, Italy, France, Poland


Controls market heading for a change

16

3%

European Thermostat

Market shares, 2013

Schneider Electric

Honeywell

Siemens

Delta Dore

Alre

others

88%

Vaillant

Bosch

Ariston

others

12%

Schneider Electric

Honeywell

Siemens

IMI Hydronics

others

80%

Bosch

Vaillant

Viessmann

others

20%

European controls market value 2013, 1,825 €million

NEST…

CAGR 2013-2020

1%

6% - Programmable thermostats sales some 3mln

units a year…

European Controllers

Market shares, 2013

US

Nest achieved sales of over 500K in 1 year… 65%

17%

18% Valves

Radiator valves

Controllers, thermostats


World heat pump market by value, 2014

17

Regional market, share by value Top 10 ranking by country, € mln

Total market: ~ 4.500 € million - 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0

Finland

Italy

Austria

Switzerland

Sweden

France

USA

Germany

China

Japan

38.0%

52%

10%

Europe Asia Pacific North America


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Others

Finland

Italy

Austria

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

France

Germany

Heat pump market Europe by volume

Total heat pump sales per country in Europe, units, 2011 - 2017

units


European Solar thermal markets 2012-2014

19

‘000 m2

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2012 2013 2014

Overall Europe

market volume

down by ~10%


District Energy Networks

20

• New build and Existing buildings

• Heating & Cooling

• Including:

CHP and biofuels

Geothermal Heat Pumps

Solar thermal collectors

Increased focus on District Energy

distribution systems in European cities.

Energy production is:

• local,

• decentralised,

• efficient,

• increasingly renewable.


Heat Interface Units

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012

2013

2014

Annual sales of HIU in main European markets, 2012 - 2014


Thank you

Contact:

Krystyna Dawson

Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836

Email: [email protected]

Data & Analytics

Latest trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets