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1Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast
Small Sat 2016 | Logan, UtahBill Doncaster
Senior Systems [email protected] | 770.379.8006
2Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Our Overall Team
We are an Atlanta-based group of innovative space businesses focused oncommercial markets, space systems analysis, and low-cost space hardware
• Systems analysis• Systems engineering• Preliminary design
• Concept development• Market research • Cost and business case analysis
• Flight test platforms• SmallSat launch systems• Liquid upper stages• In-space stages
• Reentry systems• Recoverable capsules• Heat shields• Precision landing
• CubeSats for M2M/IoT• Beam-forming antennas• Low power ground transmitters• Modular design & assembly
3Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
SpaceWorks Forecasting
Since 2010, SpaceWorks has published annual nano/microsatellite market reports based on our proprietary launch demand database
All public reports available at spaceworksforecast.com
4Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
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Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Forecast (1 - 50 kg)
Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate as many as 3,000 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2016 through 2022
16-001
Full Market PotentialSpaceWorks ForecastHistorical Launches
5Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
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Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2010 – 2016Q2 (1 - 50 kg)
1 – 10 kg11 – 50 kg
Two launches in 2nd Half 2016 will add over 100 nano/microsatellites, making 2016 (OrbitalATK OA-7, Spaceflight Services SHERPA)
Continued popularity in the 1-10 kg mass
range
6Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 – 50 kg)
The commercial sector will increase its proportional representation over the next three years, to the extent that it will soon account for the majority of spacecraft launched in the 1 – 50 kg class
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Historical (2009 - 2015) SpaceWorks Forecast (2016 - 2018)
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Military Commercial Government Civil
7Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)
* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and 8.
While still widely used by academia, 1U class CubeSats will comprise less than 30% of the market in the future (compared to 71% from 2009 to 2013)
Over 60% of future nanosatellites (1 - 10 kg) will be in the increasingly popular 3U size class (compared to only 23% from 2009 to 2013)
1U Class
3U Class
Over 3U
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Calendar Year
8Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
2015 Nano/Microsatellites Rides to Space
Low cost piggy-back opportunities on medium and heavy-lift launch vehicles have attracted small satellite payloads; Many small dedicated launchers under development could change this trend
* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Long March 11
Delta II
PSLV
Super-Strypi
Long March 6
H-2B
Falcon 9
Atlas V
No. of Satellites No. of Launches
9Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Emerging Launch Vehicles and Launch Providers
Launch System Stated IOC Target PriceSandia Super Strypi 2015 $54K/kgFirefly Alpha 2016 $21K/kgRocket Lab Electron 2016 $30K/kgVirgin Galactic LauncherOne 2017 $45K/kgSwiss Space Systems SOAR 2017 $44K/kgZero2Infinity Bloostar 2017 tbdGeneration Orbit GOLauncher 2 2018 $57K/kgVector Space Systems Vector 1 2018 tbdPLD Space Arion-2 2021 tbdNanoRacks 2013 $60k/kg
10Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Increasingly Dynamic Market
11Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Increasingly Dynamic Market
12Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Increasingly Dynamic Market
13Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Increasingly Dynamic Market
MarketMatch developed to predict outcomes in this complex market
Economic simulation that manifests future launches based on preferences of satellite operators and pricing options from launch providers
Identifies capture rate, flight frequency, and ROI for launch providers
14Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
Summary
Continued growth at double digit rates in the future driven by the commercial operators of nano/microsatellites
Numerous small launch vehicles in development to provide dedicated service for small satellites potentially at a premium
Predicting the future of the space industry is becoming more difficult, but SpaceWorks has the experience and tools to help guide your business decisions
15Copyright SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. 2016. Approved for Public Release.
SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | [email protected]
1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | 770.379.8000
