The Economic Development of Somalia

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The Economic Development of Somalia

Author(s): Ahmed Abdirahman Herzi MEDIU Training and Continuing Education Center Deanship of University Development and Quality

Research and Development Division Al-Madinah International University (MEDIU),Malaysia

Email:hersi05@gmail.com/ahmed.herzi@mediu.edu.my

The Economic Development of Somalia

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Summary:

This study attempts to explore on the Economic Development of Somalia, According to the

CIA and the Central Bank of Somalia, despite experiencing civil unrest, Somalia has maintained

a healthy informal economy, based mainly on livestock, remittance/money transfer companies

and telecommunications. Due to a dearth of formal government statistics and the recent civil war,

it is difficult to gauge the size or growth of the economy. For 1994, the CIA estimated the GDP

at $3.3 billion In 2001, it was estimated to be $4.1 billion. By 2009, the CIA estimated that the

GDP had grown to $5.731 billion, with a projected real growth rate of 2.6.According to a 2007

British Chambers of Commerce report, the private sector also grew, particularly in the service

sector. Unlike the pre-civil war period when most services and the industrial sector were

government-run, there has been substantial, albeit unmeasured, private investment in commercial

activities; this has been largely financed by the Somali diaspora, and includes trade and

marketing, money transfer services, transportation, communications, fishery equipment, airlines,

telecommunications, education, health, construction and hotels. Libertarian economist Peter T.

Leeson attributes this increased economic activity to the Somali customary law (referred to as

Xeer), which he suggests provides a stable environment to conduct business.

Keywords: Economic Development, economic activity, Somalia

The Economic Development of Somalia

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Introduction

The Economic-Agrarian Activities of the Population and Their Evolution About four-fifths of the

population of Somalia was engaged in agriculture and subsistence pastoral farming. The country

was divided into four regions: northern Somalia or Migiurtinia with an arid climate and little

vegetation, central Somalia or Mudug, equally arid and with a nomadic population, central-

southern Somalia, which had the most developed agricultural and animal husbandry sectors and

southern Somalia or Lower Juba with thick vegetation and very rich fauna. One of the greatest

problems was the shortage of water. Water reserves were limited to the area between the Jubba

and Shabelle Rivers and outside of this area there were only wells.

The country has a very poor physical geographical structure and its few resources required a lot

of money and effort to exploit them. Agriculture was seriously hindered by the lack of rainfall,

especially in the dry area which has at the most 600–700 mm per year. Somalia, therefore, has to

be considered an arid region in the north and semiarid in the south. The climate of seasonal rains,

almost continuous winds and, even worse, irregularity of rainfall over the years, made it very

difficult for the population to work effectively. In the interfluvial area, where rainfall is sufficient

for the cultivation of the crops essential to feed the population, there was another obstacle

created by a shortage of agricultural workers. Animal husbandry, limited by the scarcity of

drinking water, was considered the main area for long term development, but it had little

prospect of providing immediate and consistent income.2 The main crops were dhurra, maize

The Economic Development of Somalia

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and bananas, the first two consumed only by the local population who used it for their own food,

whilst the third was mostly for exportation (Table 2.1). 39% of Somali territory could not be

used for either animal farming or agriculture, 43.5% was used for animal farming and 17.5% for

agriculture, totalling 8 million hectares. Of these only 800,000 ha were cultivated, 146,000 in

irrigated or flooded areas and 654,000 in arid areas. The situation in Somalia was made even

more problematic by the fact that most of the population, which belongs to the Cushitic group,

was involved in nomadic pastoralism, whilst only a few tens of thousands could be considered

settled farmers. The reasons for this can be explained basically by two factors: • Their Camitic

origins, with strong cultural nomadic-pastoralist bases • The climatic and environmental

conditions that favour a nomadic-pastoralist economy rather than a settled agricultural economy.

The most modern forms of agriculture were concentrated in the southern area where there are

greater water resources: banana and sugar cane plantations. In the other regions of the country

the lack of water made agricultural resources very scarce, limiting activity to oases where date

palms were cultivated. There were, therefore, two basic agricultural sectors: one of a modern

type oriented towards exportation, whose main crops were sugar cane, bananas, cotton, peanuts,

cassava and grapefruit; the other was traditional for the subsistence of the population which

produced mainly maize, millet and sesame.3 The backwardness of the agricultural sector was

evident; in particular the traditional crops, in spite of the area of land occupied, were not capable

of satisfying even internal demand. Animal farming was also strongly conditioned by the

availability of water. Cattle were, in fact, concentrated in Benadir and in Middle Juba and Lower

Juba where animal husbandry was non-nomadic. In the arid northern regions pastoralist nomads

kept goats and sheep. Animal husbandry was by far the largest asset of the territory, but had few

prospects of an immediate and consistent income. Industrial activity mostly concerned the

transformation of agricultural, livestock and fishing products and was concentrated almost

entirely in the southern part of the country near Mogadishu. However, industry remained small

and in the hands of Europeans. Ever since the period of colonialism the Somali economy has had

very particular characteristics. Its organization perpetuated a misfit between goods of first

necessity for internal consumption and export-oriented products. It relied on foreign aid and

subsidies that were the only resources for investment and development, which reinforced the

economic status quo. Public resources allocated for the expansion and improvement of

agriculture were clearly inadequate. Furthermore, as the organization of the state machine was

controlled in an irregular manner by elite factions, the distribution of foreign aid fell under their

control. Thus, the concentration of power in the hands of a few led to embezzlement, the wrong

use of resources and political instability.

The improvement of the agricultural sector had been one of the prime objectives of Italian policy

from the very first years of colonization in Somalia. The method most frequently adopted was to

give appropriate incentives of various kinds that could convince the native population to improve

and extend their work in rural areas. This kind of invention, which presupposed the enthusiastic

The Economic Development of Somalia

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collaboration of natives, was called the indirect method. In other situations, in the presence of

seriously depressed populations who were underfed and without any will to react against their

condition, direct methods were judged essential, though transitory, as they were based on the

principle of compulsory cultivation in the exclusive interest of the farmers. Italian programs used

exclusively indirect methods.

Economic Development between 1960 and 1969

After independence one of the main problems for the country continued to be the scarcity of food

which had persisted for many years; according to Querini (op. cit.) the reason lay not so much

with the 1963 floods or the 1965 drought, but rather with the growing rural exodus.19 “The

accumulative effects of the exodus on traditional agricultural structures, especially the

increasingly extensive and marauding exploitation of natural resources, exacerbated, at least in

relative terms, the backwardness of the traditional producers, on whom the provision of food for

most of the population ultimately depended.” Somalia enjoyed comparative advantages in the

production of many agricultural goods; however, foreign capital was concentrated in only one

activity, banana plantations, which did not require a very large workforce, but needed an

expensive network of storage and transport infrastructures, because the product was extremely

perishable. In general, it can be said that the problem of the structural interdependence between

agriculture and industry in a country like Somalia consisted basically in increasing the local

value added in the commercialization and transformation of the traditional sector’s products.

There was the risk, on the one hand, of these products being hastily consumed in the domestic

market with a large amount of waste, as happens for highly perishable goods such as meat and

fish, and, on the other, of their being exported in a natural state, leaving foreign industries all the

benefits of subsequent processing.

At the time of independence the Somali economy was still firmly anchored to a level of

subsistence and the new state did not have a public administration capable of levying taxes on

the productive activities of farmers and nomadic herdsmen. In the 1960s, in fact, most of its

revenue came from exports and international trade, but these resources were insufficient to

satisfy the needs of government and its development objectives. In the first 3 years of

independence Somalia covered 30% of its budget with financing from Britain and Italy and loans

and funding from Western and Arab countries. This revenue made it possible to start a 5-year

plan of national development from 1963, which provided for investments in infrastructures for a

total value of about 100 million dollars.

The main objective was to favour the cultivation of bananas and the exportation of livestock,

after the necessary infrastructures, better roads, ports and irrigation systems, had been built. As

most of the Somali population was nomadic and animal husbandry put pressure on the land that

The Economic Development of Somalia

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was already very arid, it was decided to target investments on the creation of agricultural models

that could attract nomads towards settled activities and train them in the use of modern farming

techniques. These projects were made in Baidoa, Afgooye and, in the north, the second city of

the country Hargeisa, where agriculture was non-existent. These efforts in agriculture were

matched by those in pastoral farming. Between 1965 and 1966 the Livestock Development

Agency was created which provided veterinary services, water and food for animals and means

of transport. The exportation of animals was the leading productive sector of Somalia and this

policy was welcomed by nomads because it not only guaranteed the health of the animals, but

also made their activity more efficient by offering an outlet on the international livestock market.

Until just a few years before exports were blocked because of a lack of health certification,

Somalia was the leading livestock exporter to countries in the Gulf. In the post-independence

period, therefore, trade in Somalia developed in two key economic sectors, livestock and

bananas, making the country the leading exporter of bananas in the world for a few years. In

spite of these early successes Somalia did not manage to free itself of external aid; although there

had been a surplus in the current accounts, Mogadishu was still dependent on external aid and

finance. Agricultural practices were still tied to the traditional farming methods that had

undergone very little modernisation and the backwardness of the subsistence level agriculture

could not satisfy the needs of the growing urban population.

Agriculture and natural resources

According to the Central Bank of Somalia, the country's GDP per capita as of 2012 is $226, a

slight reduction in real terms from 1990.About 43% of the population live on less than 1 US

dollar a day, with about 24% of those found in urban areas and 54% living in rural areas.[4]

Somalia's economy consists of both traditional and modern production, with a gradual shift in

favor of modern industrial techniques taking root. According to the Central Bank of Somalia,

about 80% of the population is nomadic or semi-nomadic pastoralists, who keep goats, sheep,

camels and cattle. The nomads also gather resins and gums to supplement their income.

Agriculture is the most important economic sector. It accounts for about 65% of the GDP and

employs 65% of the workforce. Livestock contributes about 40% to GDP and more than 50% of

export earnings Other principal exports include fish, charcoal and bananas; sugar, sorghum and

corn are products for the domestic market According to the Central Bank of Somalia, imports of

goods total about $460 million per year, and have recovered and even surpassed aggregate

imports prior to the start of the civil war in 1991. Exports, which total about $270 million

annually, have also surpassed pre-war aggregate export levels but still lead to a trade account

deficit of about $190 million US dollars per year. However, this trade deficit is far exceeded by

remittances sent by Somalis in the diaspora, which have helped sustain the import level.

The Economic Development of Somalia

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With the advantage of being located near the Arabian Peninsula, Somali traders have

increasingly begun to challenge Australia's traditional dominance over the Persian Gulf Arab

livestock and meat market, offering quality animals at very low prices. In response, Persian Gulf

Arab states have started to make strategic investments in the country, with Saudi Arabia building

livestock export infrastructure and the United Arab Emirates purchasing large farmlands Somalia

is also a major world supplier of frankincense and myrrh. Additionally, fishing fleets from

Europe and Asia have reached commercial fishing agreements in the northern Puntland region

Manufacturing

The modest industrial sector, based on the processing of agricultural products, accounts for 10%

of Somalia's GDP.

Prior to the outbreak of the civil war in 1991, the roughly 53 state-owned small, medium and

large manufacturing firms were foundering, with the ensuing conflict destroying many of the

remaining industries. However, primarily as a result of substantial local investment by the

Somali diaspora, many of these small-scale plants have re-opened and newer ones have been

created. The latter include fish-canning and meat-processing plants in the north, as well as about

25 factories in the Mogadishu area, which manufacture pasta, mineral water, confections, plastic

bags, fabric, hides and skins, detergent and soap, aluminum, foam mattresses and pillows, fishing

boats, carry out packaging, and stone processing

According to the UNDP, investments in light manufacturing have expanded in Bosaso, Hargeisa

and Mogadishu, in particular, indicating growing business confidence in the economy.To this

end, in 2004, an $8.3 million Coca-Cola bottling plant opened in Mogadishu, with investors

hailing from various constituencies in Somalia. The robust private sector has also attracted

foreign investment from the likes of General Motors and Dole Fruit.

Airline industry

Somali Airlines was the flag carrier of Somalia. Established in 1964, it offered flights to both

domestic and international destinations. Following the start of the civil war, all of the carrier's

operations were officially suspended in 1991. A reconstituted Somali government later began

preparations in 2012 for an expected relaunch of the carrier,with the first new Somali Airlines

aircraft scheduled for delivery by the end of December 2013.

The Economic Development of Somalia

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According to the Somali Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the void created by the closure of

Somali Airlines has since been filled by various Somali-owned private carriers. Over six of these

private airline firms offer commercial flights to both domestic and international locations,

including Daallo Airlines, Jubba Airways, African Express Airways, East Africa 540, Central

Air and Hajara.

Hospitality

Somalia's hospitality sector has seen an unprecedented level of growth in the past few years.

Much construction is taking place in Mogadishu and other major urban centers, encouraging the

formation of new restaurants and hotels.Private-security militias are hired to ensure safety and

the normal conduct of business.

Telecommunications and media

After the start of the civil war, various new telecommunications companies began to spring up

and compete to provide missing infrastructure. Funded by Somali entrepreneurs and backed by

expertise from China, Korea and Europe, these nascent telecommunications firms offer

affordable mobile phone and internet services that are not available in many other parts of the

continent. Customers can conduct money transfers and other banking activities via mobile

phones, as well as easily gain wireless internet access.

After forming partnerships with multinational corporations such as Sprint, ITT and Telenor,

these firms now offer the cheapest and clearest phone calls in Africa. Installation time for a

landline is just three days, while in Kenya to the south, waiting lists are many years long.These

Somali telecommunication companies also provide services to every city, town and hamlet in

Somalia. There are presently around 25 mainlines per 1,000 persons, and the local availability of

telephone lines (tele-density) is higher than in neighboring countries; three times greater than in

adjacent Ethiopia.[13] Prominent Somali telecommunications companies include Golis Telecom

,Somtel, Hormuud Telecom, Somafone, Nationlink, Netco, Telcom and Somali Telecom Group.

Hormuud Telecom alone grosses about $40 million a year. To dampen competitive pressures,

three of these companies signed an interconnectivity deal in 2005 that allows them to set prices

and expand their networks.

Investment in the telecom industry is one of the clearest signs that Somalia's economy has

continued to grow despite the ongoing civil strife in parts of the southern half of the country.

The Economic Development of Somalia

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As of 2005, there were also 20 privately owned Somali newspapers, more than 12 radio and

television stations, and numerous internet sites offering information to the public. Several local

satellite-based television services transmit international news stations, such as CNN.In addition,

one of Somalia's upstart media firms recently established a partnership with the BBC.

Finance

The Central Bank of Somalia is the official monetary authority of Somalia.[4] In terms of

financial management, it is in the process of assuming the task of both formulating and

implementing monetary policy.

Owing to a lack of confidence in the local currency, the US dollar is widely accepted as a

medium of exchange alongside the Somali shilling. Dollarization notwithstanding, the large

issuance of the Somali shilling has increasingly fueled price hikes, especially for low value

transactions. This inflationary environment, however, is expected to come to an end as soon as

the Central Bank assumes full control of monetary policy and replaces the presently circulating

currency introduced by the private sector.

Although Somalia has had no central monetary authority for upwards of 15 years between the

outbreak of the civil war in 1991 and the subsequent re-establishment of the Central Bank of

Somalia in 2009, the nation's payment system is actually fairly advanced due primarily to the

widespread existence of private money transfer operators (MTO) that have acted as informal

banking networks.

These remittance firms (hawalas) have become a large industry in Somalia, with an estimated

$1.6 billion USD annually remitted to the region by Somalis in the diaspora via money transfer

companies. The latter include Dahabshiil, Qaran Express, Mustaqbal, Amal Express, Kaah

Express, Hodan Global, Olympic, Amana Express, Iftin Express and Tawakal Express. Most are

credentialed members of the Somali Money Transfer Association (SOMTA), an umbrella

organization that regulates the community's money transfer sector, or its predecessor, the Somali

Financial Services Association (SFSA). A unique feature of the Somali funds transfer companies

is that they all charge the same low commission of 5% for sending amounts of up to

approximately $1000, a fee range that encompasses the vast majority of household Somali

remittances. For amounts greater than $1000, these companies charge commission fees of

between 3%-4%, significantly lower than Western Union's 7.1% fee and MoneyGram's 7.2% fee

for sending the same amount to Ethiopia. The bulk of remittances are sent by Somalis based

abroad to relatives in Somalia, a practice which has had a stimulating effect on the country's

economy.

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Dahabshiil is the largest of the Somali money transfer operators (MTO), having captured most of

the market vacated by Al-Barakaat. The firm has its headquarters in London and employs more

than 2000 people across 144 countries, with 130 branches in the United Kingdom alone, a further

130 branches in Somalia, and 400 branches globally, including one in Dubai. The company

provides a broad range of financial services to international organizations, as well as to both

large and small businesses and private individuals. After Dahabshiil, Qaran Express is the largest

Somali-owned funds transfer company. The firm has its headquarters in both London and Dubai,

with 175 agents worldwide, 66 agents in Somalia and 64 in London, and charges nothing for

remitting charity funds. Mustaqbal is the third most prominent Somali MTO, with 8 agents in

Somalia and 49 in the UK. As with Dahabshiil and Qaran Express, it also has a notable presence

internationally.

As the reconstituted Central Bank of Somalia fully assumes its monetary policy responsibilities,

some of the existing money transfer companies are expected in the near future to seek licenses so

as to develop into full-fledged commercial banks. This will serve to expand the national

payments system to include formal cheques, which in turn is expected to reinforce the efficacy of

the use of monetary policy in domestic macroeconomic management.

With a significant improvement in local security, Somali expatriates began returning to the

country for investment opportunities. Coupled with modest foreign investment, the inflow of

funds have helped the Somali shilling increase considerably in value. By March 2014, the

currency had appreciated by almost 60% against the U.S. dollar over the previous 12 months.

The Somali shilling was the strongest among the 175 global currencies traded by Bloomberg,

rising close to 50 percentage points higher than the next most robust global currency over the

same period.

Stock exchange

The Somalia Stock Exchange (SSE) is the national bourse of Somalia. It was founded in 2012 by

the Somali diplomat Idd Mohamed, Ambassador extraordinary and deputy permanent

representative to the United Nations. The SSE was established to attract investment from both

Somali-owned firms and global companies in order to accelerate the ongoing post-conflict

reconstruction process in Somalia.

In August 2012, the SSE signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Nairobi Securities

Exchange (NSE) to assist it in technical development. The agreement includes identifying

appropriate expertise and support. Sharia compliant sukuk bonds and halal equities are also

envisioned as part of the deal as Somalia's nascent stock market develops.

The Economic Development of Somalia

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As of November 2014, the Somalia Stock Exchange has established administrative offices in

Mogadishu, Kismayo, and other urban centers in Somalia. The bourse is slated to officially open

in 2015. Initially, seven Somali-owned firms from the financial services, telecommunications

and transportation sectors are expected to list their shares therein for prospective global

investment.

Energy

The World Bank reports that electricity is now in large part supplied by local businesses, using

generators purchased abroad. By dividing Somalia's cities into specific quarters, the private

sector has found a manageable method of providing cities with electricity. A customer is given a

menu of choices for electricity tailored to his or her needs, such as evenings only, daytime only,

24 hour-supply or charge per lightbulb.

Somalia has untapped reserves of numerous natural resources, including uranium, iron ore, tin,

gypsum, bauxite, copper, salt and natural gas. Due to its proximity to the oil-rich Gulf Arab

states such as Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the nation is also believed to contain substantial

unexploited reserves of oil. A survey of Northeast Africa by the World Bank and U.N. ranked

Somalia second only to Sudan as the top prospective producer. American, Australian and

Chinese oil companies, in particular, are excited about the prospect of finding petroleum and

other natural resources in the country. An oil group listed in Sydney, Range Resources,

anticipates that the Puntland province in the north has the potential to produce 5 billion barrels

(790×106 m3) to 10 billion barrels (1.6×109 m3) of oil.As a result of these developments, the

Somali Petroleum Company was created by the federal government.

In the late 1960s, UN geologists also discovered major uranium deposits and other rare mineral

reserves in Somalia. The find was the largest of its kind, with industry experts estimating the

deposits at over 25% of the world's then known uranium reserves of 800,000 tons. In 1984, the

IUREP Orientation Phase Mission to Somalia reported that the country had 5,000 tons of

uranium reasonably assured resources (RAR), 11,000 tons of uranium estimated additional

resources (EAR) in calcrete deposits, as well as possibly up to 150,000 tons of uranium

speculative resources (SR) in sandstone and calcrete deposits. Somalia concurrently evolved into

a major world supplier of uranium, with American, UAE, Italian and Brazilian mineral

companies vying for extraction rights. As of 2014, Kilimanjaro Capital has a stake in the

1,161,400 acres Amsas-Coriole-Afgoi (ACA) Block, which includes uranium exploration.

Besides uranium, an unspecified quantity of yttrium, a rare earth element and costly mineral, was

also found in the country.

The Economic Development of Somalia

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In mid-2010, Somalia's business community pledged to invest $1 billion in the national gas and

electricity industries over the following five years. Abdullahi Hussein, the director of the just-

formed Trans-National Industrial Electricity and Gas Company, predicted that the investment

strategy would create 100,000 jobs. The new firm was established through the merger of five

Somali companies from the trade, finance, and security and telecommunications sectors. The

first phase of the project started within six months of the establishment of the company, and

trained youth to supply electricity to economic areas and communities. The second phase began

in mid-to-late 2011 and saw the construction of factories in specially designated economic zones

for the fishing, agriculture, livestock and mining industries.

In 2012, the Farole administration gave the green light to the first official oil exploration project

in Puntland and Somalia at large. Led by the Canadian oil company Africa Oil and its partner

Range Resources, initial drilling in the Shabeel-1 well on Puntland's Dharoor Block in March of

the year successfully yielded oil.

According to the Central Bank of Somalia, as the nation embarks on the path of reconstruction,

the economy is expected to not only match its pre-civil war levels, but also to accelerate in

growth and development due to the Somalia's untapped natural resources.

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