© OECD/IEA – 2009 Economic Commission for Europe Committee on Sustainable Energy Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Harmonization of Fossil Energy and Mineral

© OECD/IEA – 2009

Economic Commission for EuropeEconomic Commission for Europe Committee on Sustainable EnergyCommittee on Sustainable Energy

Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Harmonization of Fossil Energy and Mineral ResourcesAd Hoc Group of Experts on Harmonization of Fossil Energy and Mineral ResourcesSixth Session, Geneva, 25-27 March 2009Sixth Session, Geneva, 25-27 March 2009

Contribution of the InterEnerStat InitiativeContribution of the InterEnerStat Initiative

to the Harmonisation of Definitionsto the Harmonisation of Definitions

of Energy Flows and Productsof Energy Flows and Products

Jean-Yves GarnierHead, Energy Statistics Division

International Energy Agency


A careful step-by-step approachA careful step-by-step approach

Step 1 Use a Momentum to bring together the main parties involved in international energy statistics

Step 2 Define together a strategy which could lead to harmonisation

Step 3 Collect the definitions on all flows and products from all organisations

Step 4 Place all these definitions in a central place accessible by all

Step 5 Hire a “neutral” consultant to look at differences and similarities and to propose draft harmonised definitions

Step 6 Circulate the proposed definitions to get comments from organisations

Step 7 Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions

Step 8 Incorporate decisions agreed in the meeting into a new set of almost finalised definitions

Step 9 Launch a new round of consultations for comments and approval

Step 10 Finalise the definitions

Step 11 Start to make use of the definitions

…

Step X Have a common questionnaire to all organisations


Step 1Step 1

Decrease in the quality of energy statistics at the end of the 90s

This was particularly true for global oil statistics

A need to act and to react

The JODI Initiative

Use a Momentum to bring together the main parties involved in international energy statistics


Quality of energy statistics was declining Quality of energy statistics was declining in the early 2000’sin the early 2000’s

CompletenessCompletenessMore and more data are estimatedMore and more data are estimatedMore and more data are missing and/or confidentialMore and more data are missing and/or confidentialLess and less details, more aggregation (CHP, public vs. Less and less details, more aggregation (CHP, public vs.

autoproducers, …)autoproducers, …)

QualityQualityEfficiency of power plants > 100%Efficiency of power plants > 100%Subtotals do not add up to totalsSubtotals do not add up to totalsLarge statistical difference (>20%)Large statistical difference (>20%)Breaks in time series - no revisions in time seriesBreaks in time series - no revisions in time series““Other sectors” often used as a balancing itemOther sectors” often used as a balancing item

TimelinessTimelinessMore and more time to collect, process, check and release dataMore and more time to collect, process, check and release data


Supply and Consumption for Heat (TJ) - Tables 3 and 41989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Total Gross Production 443459 448383 430271 404831 407411 395300 416600 418943e 381577e 385800e 379551e 315920e 321022e 316222e Own use (-) - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Total Net Production 443459 448383 430271 404831 407411 395300 416600 418943e 381577e 385800e 379551e 315920e 321022e 316222e Imports (+) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Exports (-) 122e 122e 122e 122e 122e 141e 141e 159e 145e 183e 146e 144e 152e 152eEnergy Supplied 443337 448261 430149 404709 407289 395159 416459 418784e 381432e 385617e 379405e 315776e 320870e 316070e Trans.+Distribut. Losses (-) 29216 49439 42785 38858 41906 37259 40559 32411e 30518e 30153e 29594e 24631e 25028e 24653e

Total Consumption (calc.) 414121 398822 387364 365851 365383 357900 375900 386373e 350914e 355464e 349811e 291145e 295842e 291417eTotal Consumption (obs.) 414121 398822 387364 365851 365383 357900 375900 386373e 350914e 355464e 349811e 291145e 295842e 291417eTotal Energy Sector 18288 15709 9408 9906 10698 9100 9700 8300e 6900e 6300e 6200e 5160e 5243e 5165e Coal Mines 5598 5393 4396 4103 3986 3600 4000 2900e 2820e 2570e 2529e 2105e 2138e 2107e Oil + Gas Extraction - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Patent Fuel Plants - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Coke Ovens 1202 909 1305e 1700 2198 2000 2100 1900e 1550e 1415e 1392e 1159e 1178e 1160e Gas Works 7239 6418 600e 615 909 - - - - - - - - - BKB 1348 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Oil Refineries 2901 2989 3107 3488 3605 3500 3600 3500e 2530e 2315e 2279e 1896e 1927e 1898e Nuclear Industry - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Energy Non Specified - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Total Industry Sector 97390 100848 85374 69108 67936 69850 70400 71570e 50330e 46030e 45298e 37701e 38309e 37736e Iron + Steel 5246 3869 2520 2520 2081 2200 - - - - - - - - Chemical + Petrochemical 27989 24707 17761 18816 19343 18900 19900 19450e 13680e 12510e 12311e 10246e 10411e 10255e Non Ferrous Metals 703 967 645 762 557 550 550 585e 410e 375e 369e 307e 312e 307e Non Metallic Minerals 8177 3722 2696 1846 1817 2100 1850 2080e 1465e 1340e 1319e 1098e 1116e 1099e Transport Equipment 11811 10492 13511 12397 11958 11650 12350 12120e 8520e 7790e 7666e 6380e 6483e 6386e Machinery 6829 17438 15123 10375 9847 9900 - - - - - - - - Mining + Quarring 88 88 264 381 352 400 350 400e 280e 260e 256e 213e 216e 213e Food, Beverages+Tabacco 9789 13335 10639 5656 5422 5850 5600 5800e 4080e 3730e 3671e 3055e 3104e 3058e Pulp, Paper + Printing 2315 3927 3634 3195 3751 4150 3850 3700e 2600e 2380e 2342e 1949e 1980e 1950e Wood + Wood Products - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Construction - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Textiles + Leather 5539 3136 2315 1495 1612 1800 - - - - - - - - Industry Non Specified 18904 19167 16266 11665 11196 12350 25950 27435e 19295e 17645e 17364e 14453e 14687e 14468eResidential 298443 282265 292582 286837 286749 278950 295800 306503e 293684 303134 298313e 248284e 252290e 248516eComm. + Pub.Services - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Agriculture - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Sector Non Specified - - - - - - - - - - - - - -




Completeness: More and More EstimatesCompleteness: More and More Estimates

Gas/Diesel Consumption in the Industry Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

TH

TO

NS

Quality: Frequent Breaks in Time SeriesQuality: Frequent Breaks in Time Series

Breaks in Series




Completeness: More and More EstimatesCompleteness: More and More Estimates


There are many reasons behind this deteriorationThere are many reasons behind this deterioration

Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds

Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation)

More work passed to statistics offices:More companies to survey (liberalisation)

Renewables (remote information)

Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data)

Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….)

Etc.

Resources do not follow work load:Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts

Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity

New developments make the tasks of statisticians even harder:New developments make the tasks of statisticians even harder:


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)

Blame on statistics?Blame on statistics?

A quick focus on oilA quick focus on oil


UN

Secretaria de EnergíaMexico

Lack of harmonisation can lead toLack of harmonisation can lead tolarge discrepancieslarge discrepancies

5% gap5% gap5% gap5% gap

1995 1996 1997 1998APEC 2653 2903 3087 3134IEA 2741 2872 3062 3109OLADE 2722 2969 3022 3070OPEC 2618 2858 3022 3071UN 2834 2977 3166

Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd)

3210


Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Decision was taken to adopt Decision was taken to adopt a joint simple questionnairea joint simple questionnaire

Simple Definitions Simple Definitions

Month -1 and Month -2Month -1 and Month -2

Choice of units left to organisations Choice of units left to organisations

A Simple Format (42 data points) A Simple Format (42 data points)


International Energy Forum Conferences

JODI Conferences

Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings

International Energy Forum Conferences

JODI Conferences

Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings

Amst.May 04

MexicoMay 02

ParisDec 03

RiyadhNov. 01

MexicoMay 02

Luxem.Jan 02

ViennaApr 02

MadridJuly 00

BangkokApr 01

ParisNov 00

RiyadhNov 00

ViennaMay 01

ViennaOct 01

Amst.May 04

ViennaJan 03

ParisJuly 02

ParisDec 03

ViennaJun 04

ParisNov 05

RiyadhJan 05

ParisJul 05

RiyadhNov 05

CairoOct 03

BaliOct 04

OsakaSep 02

Luxem.Jan 06

ViennaSep 06

N YorkMay 06

RiyadhNov 06

DohaMay 06

ParisNov 07

ParisOct 08

Luxem.June 08

ViennaMar 09

QuitoJune 09

RomeMay 08

The JODI Initiative: a major success of the producer-The JODI Initiative: a major success of the producer-consumer dialogue to improve oil data transparencyconsumer dialogue to improve oil data transparency


The JODI database is updated every monthThe JODI database is updated every month

Although still imperfect, the database is widely used by analysts and oil companies.

Although still imperfect, the database is widely used by analysts and oil companies.

Not possible to assess quality Not possible to assess quality

Use with caution Use with caution


What has JODI changedWhat has JODI changed

How Statistics is Viewed by Policy Makers and Analysts Policy makers and analysts have realised that building a detailed,

timely and reliable global database on oil supply and demand cannot happen overnight.

It involves political commitment, a great deal of cooperation between companies, countries and organisations. It also needs proper resources.

The place and role of statistics and statisticians have certainly benefited from JODI

International Cooperation JODI has contributed to strengthen links between organisations:

The strong cooperation between 7 JODI partner organisations is a great example of the strengthening of the links

InterEnerStat: JODI has created a momentum to further strengthen international cooperation not only on oil statistics but on all energy statistics

On 19 November 2005, King Abdullah launched the JODI

database live on internet


24 international/regional organisations

Both data providers and users

Objectives: identify priority actions to strengthen cooperation and improve quality and transparency

Step 2Step 2Define together a strategy which could lead to harmonisation

1st InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, Paris, 22-23 November 2005


Step 2 Step 2 (cont.)(cont.)

Harmonisation Methodologies

Definitions

Units

Conversion factors

Harmonised demands and questionnaires

Handbooks and manuals

Training

Quality framework

Harmonisation Methodologies

Definitions

Units

Conversion factors

Harmonised demands and questionnaires

Handbooks and manuals

Training

Quality framework

Co-operation Raising political

awareness

Harmonisation

Joint Questionnaires

Joint Training

Common manuals

Joint quality assessment

Exchange of data

Co-operation Raising political

awareness

Harmonisation

Joint Questionnaires

Joint Training

Common manuals

Joint quality assessment

Exchange of data

Priority areas of cooperation identified by participating organisations


A few Milestones on the Road to HarmonisationA few Milestones on the Road to Harmonisation

InterEnerStat 1November 2005

1st draft of the InterEnerStat website

InterEnerStat 2November 2007

2nd draft of the InterEnerStat website

Ad hoc Energy Group MeetingUNSD, May 2005

InterEnerStat 3October 2008


Step 3

Key reference documents and manuals

Key reference documents and manuals

Main units used in energy statistics

Main units used in energy statistics

Definition of products used by organisationsDefinition of products used by organisations

Links to databasesLinks to databases

Definition of flows used by organisations

Definition of flows used by organisations

Short presentation of each organisation

Short presentation of each organisation

Collect the definitions on all flows and products from all organisations


Step 4Step 4

List of reference documents by category

List of reference documents by category

Main units used in energy conversionMain units used in energy conversion

Menu drivenMenu driven

Definitions of products and flows from all the organisations who have definitions

Definitions of products and flows from all the organisations who have definitions

Place all these definitions in a central place accessible by all


Step 4Step 4 (cont.) (cont.)

2nd InterEnerstat Meeting, IEA, Paris, 19-20 November 2007

Improved website to better meet expectations of users


Step 5Step 5

Hire a “neutral” consultant to look at differences and similarities and to propose draft harmonised definitions


Circulate the proposed definitions to get commentsfrom organisations

Step 6Step 6



Circulate the proposed definitions to get commentsfrom organisations


Sample of Comments ReceivedSample of Comments Received


Sample of Comments ReceivedSample of Comments Received

The definition as proposed by the consultant

Comments received from organisations

Comments received from organisations


Only one objective: Discussion of the definitions of every single flow and product

Step 7Step 7

TheThe 3rd InterEnerStat WorkshopIEA, 28-30 October 2008

Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions


Tuesday 28 Wednesday 29 Thursday 30

BackgroundObjectives

Coal

Renewables

Electricity

Flows (1st session):

Supply

Transformation

Flows (2nd session):

Consumption

Oil

Oil (cont.)

What’s nextClosing

Natural Gas

The 3The 3rdrd InterEnerStat Workshop InterEnerStat WorkshopIEA, 28-30 October 2008IEA, 28-30 October 2008



Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions


Step 7 (cont.)Step 7 (cont.)Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions


Step 7 (cont.)Step 7 (cont.)Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions


Hierarchy of ProductsHierarchy of ProductsOilOil

Crude Oil (includes field condensates when it is injected into crude)Crude Oil (includes field condensates when it is injected into crude)??Oils from tar sandsOils from tar sands

NGLNGLEthaneEthanePropanePropanebutanebutanepentanespentanespentanes plus (plant condensates and field condensates – if not injected into crude oil)pentanes plus (plant condensates and field condensates – if not injected into crude oil)

Refinery feedstockRefinery feedstockAdditives/oxygenatesAdditives/oxygenatesOther hydrocarbons (includes orimulsion and shale oil, liquids from coal and gas)Other hydrocarbons (includes orimulsion and shale oil, liquids from coal and gas)Petroleum productsPetroleum products

Refinery gasRefinery gasEthaneEthaneLPGLPGNaphthaNaphthaAviation gasolineAviation gasolineMotor gasolineMotor gasolineGasoline-type jet fuelGasoline-type jet fuelKeroseneKerosene

Kerosene-type jet fuelKerosene-type jet fuelOther keroseneOther kerosene

Gasoil/diesel oilGasoil/diesel oilRoad dieselRoad dieselHeating and other gasoilHeating and other gasoil

Fuel oilFuel oilWhite spirit and SBPWhite spirit and SBPLubricantsLubricantsParaffin waxesParaffin waxesPetroleum cokePetroleum cokeBitumenBitumenOther petroleum productsOther petroleum products


Harmonisation of definitions of energy commodities

and their flows

Step 8Step 8Incorporate decisions agreed in the meeting into a

new set of almost finalised definitions


Examples of Revised Definitions Examples of Revised Definitions Definition

Explanation

Remark


Step 9Step 9Launch a new round of consultations

for comments and approval


The current and the next stepsThe current and the next steps

Step 10: additional comments have just been received from organisations, and will be incorporated to hopefully arrive at a final set of definitions agreed by all

Step 11: To start to make use of the definitions

● A first candidate for the use of the work on A first candidate for the use of the work on harmonisation would obviously be the harmonisation would obviously be the International Recommendations for International Recommendations for Energy Statistics Energy Statistics prepared by the Oslo prepared by the Oslo City Group and UNSDCity Group and UNSD


The ultimate goal would be to have

one questionnaire common to all countries and organisations

WORLD BANK

FAO

UNEUROSTAT

OPEC

OAPEC

?

Dream or reality?

And if we look ahead…And if we look ahead…


HarmonisationHarmonisation

InterEnerStat has created a momentum to boost InterEnerStat has created a momentum to boost joint initiatives and cooperationjoint initiatives and cooperation

© OECD/IEA, 2008

A lot of “unknown” work takes place in each organisation and between organisations

A lot of “unknown” work takes place in each organisation and between organisations

Harmonisation

Training

Statistics Law

Dissemination

Manuals

Thank YouThank You

Documents

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Economic Commission for Europe Committee on Sustainable Energy Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Harmonization of Fossil Energy and Mineral