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Ireland v Pakistan, Group B, Adelaide March 14, 2015

Teams' prospects hinge on result, WI fortunes

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Match facts

Sunday, March 15, 2015 Start time 14.00 local (03.30 GMT)

Play 02:17'Ireland have something to lose for the first time'

Big Picture

This has already dubbed been "the biggest game we've ever had" by Ireland's key batsman, Ed Joyce.

The winner of this game is assured of a quarter-final place. The loser could qualify, too, but that would depend onthe unlikely scenario of West Indies losing to UAE. Ireland, with their relatively poor run-rate, almost certainly need towin, while if Pakistan lose, their qualification will depend on the NRR comparison with West Indies.

An abandonment would also send both Ireland and Pakistan into the next round.

The further context is that Ireland are both fighting to develop cricket in their own country and for the reputation ofAssociate cricket. Much has already been said about the rights and wrongs of the ICC's decision to reduce the 2019World Cup to 10 teams, but if Ireland can progress while two Full Member nations exit, they will have made theirpoint more eloquently, more powerfully, more persuasively than any words.

In the grand scheme of things, Ireland might take credit for going so far whether they win or lose. They might takecredit for overcoming their poor form in the warm-up games - they lost to a grade side in Sydney and Scotland inBlacktown - and a modest seam-bowling attack acutely lacking in pace.

But such is their ambition, such is their determination, that anything less than a quarter-final place at this stage wouldbe considered a disappointment.

They have a tough task. After a poor start to the tournament, Pakistan have won three games in succession and lookfar stronger in the field and with the bat, for the inclusion of Sarfraz Ahmed and Younis Khan. Their seam attackincludes the trio of left-arm pacemen Wahab Riaz who has bowled the quickest delivery in the tournament, Rahat Ali,who is conceding his runs at an average of only 3.82 an over, and the towering Mohammad Irfan. It might be bestdescribed as daunting.

In the long-term, Pakistan might worry about who replaces Younis at No. 3, who replaces Misbah at No. 4 - and ascaptain - and who replaces Shahid Afridi, who seems to have been playing for Pakistan since the dawn of time.

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But the long-term can wait. This is a World Cup. This is the ODI tournament that defines careers. And this is thegame that might define the tournament for both sides.

Form guide

(last five matches, most recent first) Ireland:LWLWW Pakistan:WWWLL

Pakistan will once again be heavily banking on their left-arm pace trio of Wahab Riaz, Mohammad Irfanand Rahat Ali

In the spotlight

The reason confusion continues to surround the exact height of Mohammad Irfan is that he is simply too tall tomeasure. Some say he eats three James Taylors in a bun each breakfast and brushes his teeth with a fir tree pluckedfrom a mountainside. He could, he says, write a book on the difficulties of fitting into hotel beds and airplane seats.Quite a dull book, perhaps, and one he would keep on an impossibly high shelf. While it remains a struggle to keephim fit - his buttocks are currently causing him some discomfort - his pace, his height and his left-arm angle createsignificant difficulties for any batsman. While teams in the early stages were happy to simply see him off, the decisionto include an extra bowler in the Pakistan side has forced batsmen to take a more aggressive approach against him.They rarely succeed.

While Ed Joyce remains the key batsman, the form of Andy Balbirnie has been hugely encouraging. A year agoBalbirnie, an elegant 24-year-old batsman, would barely have warranted mention in Ireland's top 20 players. But heflourished on the acclimatisation tour of Australia and New Zealand before Christmas and has continued hisdevelopment in this tournament with impressive innings against South Africa - when he made 58 - and Zimbabwe -when he made 97.

Teams news

Pakistan report a fully fit squad, but there seems a good chance they will go into the game unchanged. There is talkof them recalling spin bowling all-rounder Haris Sohail, but it is not easy to see where he would fit in. There may alsobe a temptation to play the legspinner, Yasir Shah, with a view to exploiting Ireland's perceived weakness againstspin, but Misbah played down both possibilit ies. He said the seamers were "bowling really well" and "just takingwickets" while also claiming Ireland are "really good against spin."

Pakistan(probable): 1 Sarfraz Ahmed (wkt), 2 Ahmed Shehzad 3 Younis Khan, 4 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 5 SohaibMaqsood, 6 Umar Akmal, 7 Shahid Afridi, 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Sohail Khan, 10 Rahat Ali, 11 Mohammad Irfan.

Ireland continue to compensate for their weakness in bowling - particularly seam bowling - with their impressivebatting. There does seem a strong chance they will recall their highly impressive young offspinner Andy McBrine inplace of one of the seamers, but generally they have a settled line-up that is unlikely to change much at this stage.How they could do with Tim Murtagh, who missed the tournament through injury, or Boyd Rankin, who missesthrough his decision to pursue a career with England, in such situations.

Ireland (probable): 1 William Porterfield (capt), 2 Paul Stirling, 3 Ed Joyce, 4 Niall O'Brien, 5Andy Balbirnie, 6 GaryWilson (wkt), 7 Kevin O'Brien, 8 Stuart Thompson/Andy McBrine, 9 John Mooney, 10 George Dockrell, 11 AlexCusack.

Pitch and conditions

The pitch for this game is on the opposite side of the square to that was used for the match between Bangladeshand England, so the square boundaries will not be quite so short. While the pitch is, by Australian standards, lackingjust a bit of pace, it is true and offers the bowlers litt le. William Porterfield reasoned that 290 might be a par score,though no team has made more than 300 in an ODI here in the last decade. While there is an outside chance of ashower on the morning of the game, the weather is expected to be partly cloudy but generally sunny and dry.

Stats and trivia

Ireland have conceded more runs - 1,579 - than all teams in the competition other than Sri Lanka - 1,703 -who have played a game more.Nobody has passed 50 in the tournament more times than Misbah-ul-Haq, who has on four occasions.The only time a team has reached 300 in an ODI in Adelaide since January 1995 came on February 15 when

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India scored 300 for 7 against Pakistan.With 5,049 runs, Misbah has the most ODI runs in history without a century. The next closest is Wasim Akram,also of Pakistan, with 3,717.Ireland's NRR (-1.014) is the worst of any team with a hope of qualification. Only UAE, Scotland andAfganistan have a worse rate.

Quotes

"It's really disappointing that we could be on the verge of Ireland's last World Cup game for a long time. We have acause that we fight for. We are trying to grow the game at home and show the ICC the folly of keeping the nextWorld Cup to 10 teams, not allowing nations like us ourselves a fair chance to get in. The chance to break into thequarter-finals of a World Cup definitely makes it the biggest game we've ever had." Ed Joyce does not like mincing words

"The pacers are really bowling well. All of them are wicket-takers. All of them are aggressive bowlers. And that's whatwe need if we are not batting well. We need some really good backing by the bowling, and all the pacers are reallydoing their job getting wickets and putting pressure on the opposition." Pakistan captain Misbah-ul-Haq is unlikely to tamper with a winning combination

George Dobell is a senior correspondent at ESPNcricinfo

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