0 CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005

11

CDFGCDFGSJR Fall-run Chinook SJR Fall-run Chinook

Salmon ModelSalmon Model

CWEMF CWEMF November 4, 2005November 4, 2005

22

ObjectivesObjectives

• Brief Overview of Model Development Brief Overview of Model Development

• Describe Model StructureDescribe Model Structure

• Describe Model Calibration/ValidationDescribe Model Calibration/Validation

• Describe Model ScenariosDescribe Model Scenarios

33

OverviewOverview

San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow

44

Study AreaStudy Area

Courtesy of USFWS

55

Salmon Life HistorySalmon Life History

66

Salmon CohortSalmon Cohort“Singe Year Production Indicator”“Singe Year Production Indicator”

Age 1

Age 2

Age 3

Age 4

Age 5

Brood Year Production Juvenile

CWT RecoveryScale Analysis

77

Salmon EscapementSalmon Escapement“Multi-Year Production Indicator”“Multi-Year Production Indicator”

Age 1

Age 2

Age 3

Age 4

Age 5

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Annual Carcass “Creamer” Survey

88

1995 WQCP Triennial Review1995 WQCP Triennial Review

CDFG Challenge: CDFG Challenge:

– Are the Flow Objectives Working?Are the Flow Objectives Working?

– What is the status of the salmon What is the status of the salmon population?population?

– What fraction of juvenile salmon are What fraction of juvenile salmon are receiving protection?receiving protection?

– What is the status of the VAMP experiment?What is the status of the VAMP experiment?

99

Populations Are DecliningPopulations Are DecliningS

J B

asi

n P

rod

uct

ion

Year

1983-1995 Average 42,285

1996-2004 Average 35,004

1010

Level of ProtectionLevel of Protection

1111

VAMP ImplementationVAMP Implementation

• VAMP:VAMP:• Lock Down Uncertainty at Extremes FirstLock Down Uncertainty at Extremes First• Since 2000:Since 2000:

• Result:Result:• Continued uncertainty Continued uncertainty • Need several successive high flow range tests to Need several successive high flow range tests to

define/solidify relationshipdefine/solidify relationship

FlowFlow 32003200 44504450 61006100 70007000

TestsTests 33 11 11 00

1212

More Flow = More SalmonMore Flow = More SalmonApr-May Vernalis Flow (cfs) vs Salmon Production Cohort (1967-1999)

Pre-1995y = 2.2874x + 494.36

R2 = 0.7373P = 0.001

Post-1995y = 2.0385x + 5027.7

R2 = 0.7216P = 0.001

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

Apr-May Vernalis Flow (mean daily cfs)

Sa

lmo

n C

oh

ort

1313

2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review

• CDFG:CDFG:• presented its concernspresented its concerns• asked for peer reviewasked for peer review

• SWRCB: SWRCB: • peer reviewed already occurredpeer reviewed already occurred• CDFG: develop flow recommendationsCDFG: develop flow recommendations

1414

ChalkboardChalkboard

What +/- What = More Salmon?

E = mc?

Harvest?Exports?Disease?Predation?Flow?Gravel?

1515

Model LogicModel Logic• Delta ExportsDelta Exports

• weak correlation to cohort productionweak correlation to cohort production

1616

Model LogicModel Logic• Ocean HarvestOcean Harvest

• weak correlation to cohort productionweak correlation to cohort production

Harvest - Sacramento, San Harvest - Sacramento, San Joaquin and CVIJoaquin and CVI

Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne EscapementEscapement

1717

Model LogicModel Logic• Adult Stock Density LimitationsAdult Stock Density Limitations

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Previous Year Escapement

Mos

sdal

e S

mol

ts

Ricker Stock-recruit relationship Ricker Stock-recruit relationship (density dependent mortality (density dependent mortality

governor) appears questionablegovernor) appears questionable

More females = more juveniles More females = more juveniles (Tuolumne River)(Tuolumne River)

1818

Higher Escapement

Higher Spring Flow

Higher Cohort Production

Higher Escapement

Lower Spring Flow

Lower Cohort Production

Multiple Regression1973-1999

R-square = 0.75P = .001

Density Dependent Governor ?

Adult Stock Density LimitationsAdult Stock Density Limitations

yearyear # of # of femalesfemales

Flow at Flow at ModestoModesto

Adult Adult CohortCohort

19801980 341341 358358 22172217

19811981 62716271 71007100 1945819458

19821982 42764276 98449844 4486444864

19841984 46544654 363363 15011501

19851985 2258022580 39503950 1937319373

19861986 35543554 594594 13031303

19871987 45734573 257257 125125

19881988 34673467 263263 7070

19961996 15931593 13761376 91059105

19971997 42074207 47044704 2200022000

19981998 40374037 19971997 53105310Tuolumne River data

1919

Model LogicModel Logic• Instream FlowInstream Flow

Strong correlation to cohort Strong correlation to cohort production in relation to spring flowproduction in relation to spring flow

SJB east-side tributaries principle SJB east-side tributaries principle flow & salmon contributorflow & salmon contributor

2020

Flow FeaturesFlow Features

Increased Vernalis Flow Increased Vernalis Flow Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all projected increased adult salmon projected increased adult salmon productionproduction

2121

Now What?Now What?• Challenge: “How to link salmon life Challenge: “How to link salmon life

history production to flow magnitude history production to flow magnitude & duration?”& duration?”

• Solution: “Develop a tool”Solution: “Develop a tool”

2222

Model ConceptModel Concept

• Flow primary driving factor in population (not Flow primary driving factor in population (not harvest, exports or adult stock density)harvest, exports or adult stock density)

• Quantify relationships between:Quantify relationships between:• flow and juvenile productionflow and juvenile production• flow and juvenile survivalflow and juvenile survival• juvenile survival and adult escapementjuvenile survival and adult escapement

• Simulate production over timeSimulate production over time

2323

Eureka! The Light Bulbs Went On!Eureka! The Light Bulbs Went On!

2424

Model FeaturesModel Features• Excel spreadsheet platformExcel spreadsheet platform• Links life history stages by numerical Links life history stages by numerical

production at each phaseproduction at each phase• Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)• Flow duration & magnitude variable Flow duration & magnitude variable • Predicts escapement change & water Predicts escapement change & water

volumevolume• Has 95% confidence level predictionsHas 95% confidence level predictions• Customizable input parametersCustomizable input parameters

2525

Model RefinementsModel Refinements

• Limits predictions to data setLimits predictions to data set• Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age

cohort reconstructioncohort reconstruction• Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type

specificspecific• Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt

survivalsurvival• 95% confidence levels predictions95% confidence levels predictions

2626

Conceptual ModelConceptual ModelVernalis

FlowMossdale

Smolts Delta Survival

Chipps Smolts

Adult Cohort

Escapement Reconstruction

Annual Escapement (spawners)

2727

Vernalis Flow - Mossdale SmoltsVernalis Flow - Mossdale Smolts

2828

Outmigration PatternOutmigration Pattern

2929


FlowMossdale


Chipps Smolts

Adult Cohort



3030

Delta SurvivalDelta Survival

3131


FlowMossdale


Chipps Smolts

Adult Cohort



3232

Adults versus OutmigrantsAdults versus Outmigrants

3333

Reconstruct Adult EscapementReconstruct Adult Escapement

EscapementEscapementYearYear

EscapementEscapement

SmoltSmoltProductionProduction

YearYear

CohortCohort##

Age Cohort %'sAge Cohort %'sAge 1Age 1 Age 2Age 2 Age 3Age 3 Age 4Age 4 Age 5Age 5

0.05%0.05% 30.00%30.00% 55.35%55.35% 14.00%14.00% 0.60%0.60%

19671967 19681968 276276 00 8383 153153 3939 22

19681968 19691969 9860398603 4949 29,58129,581 54,57754,577 13,80413,804 592592

19691969 19701970 14031403 11 421421 776776 196196 88

19701970 19711971 11191119 11 336336 620620 157157 77

19711971 19721972 461461 00 138138 255255 6464 33

19721972 14,91914,919 19731973 26382638 11 791791 1,4601,460 369369 1616

19731973 1,5471,547 19741974 36453645 22 1,0941,094 2,0182,018 510510 2222

19741974 1,2131,213 19751975 33043304 22 991991 1,8291,829 463463 2020

3434

SJR Scale vs CV CWTSJR Scale vs CV CWT

3535

Repeat CycleRepeat CycleCombine spawners with Vernalis Combine spawners with Vernalis

flow to predict Mossdale Smolt flow to predict Mossdale Smolt ProductionProduction

Vernalis Flow Mossdale


Chipps Smolts

Adult Cohort



3636

Model Calibration & ValidationModel Calibration & Validation

• Two ApproachesTwo Approaches• Calibrate with subset/validate with Calibrate with subset/validate with

remainingremaining• Calibrate with entire data setCalibrate with entire data set

• ParametersParameters• Escapement patternEscapement pattern• Time period average Time period average • Replacement ratioReplacement ratio• Stay within 95% CIStay within 95% CI

3737

SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000

-----Historic -----Modeled

3838

95% Confidence Intervals95% Confidence Intervals

Historic Upper 95% CI Lower 95% CI

3939

Model ScenariosModel Scenarios

• Ten model runsTen model runs

• Four presentedFour presented

4040

What ScenariosWhat Scenarios

• Possible Goal Attainment ScenariosPossible Goal Attainment Scenarios• Vary Flow with Window ConstantVary Flow with Window Constant

• VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)

• Constant Flow & Window ConstantConstant Flow & Window Constant• 10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window

• Constant Flow & Variable WindowConstant Flow & Variable Window• 10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window

• Variable Flow & Variable WindowVariable Flow & Variable Window• 5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window

4141

10 Chosen10 ChosenModel Scenarios

Scenario Flow Range Window Duration Notes

1 5-7K 31 Days No HORB

2 5-7K 31 Days HORB

3 5K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration & magnitude constant



6 5-10K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable

7 5-15k 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable

8 5-20K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable

9 5-15K Variable with WY Type Duration & magnitude variable

10 5-20K Variable with WY Type Duration & magnitude variable

4242

Existing Flow MagnitudeExisting Flow Magnitude

4343

Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 2-72-7

Duration (days)Duration (days) 3030

Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 17,09717,097

Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 579579

Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 4%4%

Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.121.12

Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 65,97865,978

Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 10%10%

Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 2%2%

Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 99

D-1641 Flows (No HORB)D-1641 Flows (No HORB)

4444




Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 1,3701,370







D-1641 Flows (With HORB)D-1641 Flows (With HORB)

4545

Constant FlowConstant Flow

4646

Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 1010










Constant FlowConstant Flow

4747

Flow Varies by Water Year TypeFlow Varies by Water Year Type

4848










Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 16 16

Flow varies by Water Year TypeFlow varies by Water Year Type

4949

Variable Flow and DurationVariable Flow and Duration

5050

Variable Flow and DurationVariable Flow and Duration


Duration—Variable by WY Type (days)Duration—Variable by WY Type (days) 30-9030-90









5151

ConclusionConclusion

Stanislaus River

San Joaquin River

5252

What Now?What Now?

• Model DocumentationModel Documentation• Release Model/ReportRelease Model/Report• Model RefinementsModel Refinements• Peer ReviewPeer Review

• Develop questionsDevelop questions

5353

Peer Review QuestionsPeer Review Questions

• What is the best way to test model results? What is the best way to test model results? • Is there a better population health Is there a better population health

barometer than “replacement ratio and barometer than “replacement ratio and escapement”?escapement”?

• What is the influence of cascading What is the influence of cascading confidence intervals?confidence intervals?

• Other Questions?Other Questions?

5454

Input & QuestionsInput & Questions

• Provide comments and questions to: Provide comments and questions to: dmarstondmarston@@dfgdfg.ca..ca.govgov

5555

Q & AQ & A

Documents

0 CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005