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Thursdays Child

Chinas Long March Toward Military

Transformation

Information Age Metrics Working Group

Evidence Based Research, Inc.

February 18, 2005


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Chinas leaders have long recognized the need to

modernizeindeed, to transformPLA warfightingcapabilities, especially the ability to command and

to control more agile, better equipped forces

operating according to local wars under modern,

high tech conditions doctrine.

The long march to transform has not been an

easy one, and has been hobbled by distractions

and debate. Finally, for the past decade, the PLA

seems to be getting it about right, and the wayahead looks more promising than many have

expected.


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This Presentation

Factors motivating transformation of

the PLA

Use of wargames, simulations

Institutionalizing transformation: The

role of the research community as an

agent for change

Vignettes


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Background and Motivation for

Change 1970s, modern war games in the West

1980s Falklands War

Bekka Valley Campaign

Operation Just Cause, Panama

1990s Desert Storm: Wake up call for political leaders

1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis Serbia/Kosovo

2000s OEF and OIF


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The Threat Debate

Peoples War Scenarios Mobilize the population Retreat but slow the invader Multi-year war from the interior

RMA Scenarios Preempt the superioranti access Asymmetric strategyASAT, info war Destroy C2, prevent entry of logistics Preemptive paralysis of the enemy

Local War Scenarios Use of rapid reaction forces Defend at border or frontier

Peoples War Traditionalists Major power threat E.g., Russia, India, United

States

RMA Enthusiasts No war for 10-20 years Time to develop leap-ahead

capabilities and technology, develop

new doctrine, tactics

Power Projection Advocates Local wars on Chinas periphery E.g., Taiwan, Vietnam, Central

Asian terrorists More modern and professional

See Michael Pillsburys China Debates the Future Security Environment


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The Goal: Shashoujian

Simplistically interpreted as assassins mace Shashou (hitman), Jian (mace, club sword)

Roots in antiquity (Tang Dynasty, 618-907A.D.)

Can be weapons and equipment and/or acombat method

Think in terms of airland battle or shock andawe

It is a way for the inferior to defeat thesuperior

See Jason Bruzdzinski, Chapter 10, Civil Military Change In China


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Two Ironies

Tsien Hsue-shen (Qian Xuesen) U.S. educated, helped found JPL, worked

classified projects in WWII, expelled fromU.S. prior to gaining citizenship, becamefather of Chinas missile program (and wasinstrumental in establishing PLA OR)

Sino-American Seminar onMethodologies in Defense SystemsAnalysis, 1987 and 1988


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PLA Operations Research

Models and simulations main approach to

defense systems analysis

Computerized simulations, ca. 1979-82 Four approaches to war games

Semi-empirical (Lanchester)

Empirical (Dupuy)

Monte Carlo (Johnson)

Scientific/theoretical (von Neumann game theory)


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War Game Example

Developed by OR section at AMS about1986-87

Division/regiment level Networked, PC-based

Graphics, data base, Chinese character

processing Met commanders requirements for

training


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Initialize Data:

Weapon Index, Unit Combat Index

Environmental Data, Attrition Index Coefficient

Scenario Play Data

Input Control Data

Display:

Initial Situation

Initial Index Ratio of Both SidesInitial Force Ratio of Both Sides

Manual Intervention Process

Command & Control Sub-Model

Movement Sub-Model

Nuclear Attack Sub-Model

Chemical/Artillery Fire Sub-Model

Air-Ground/Ground-Air Sub-Model

Display:Battle Play

Force Table

Two-Sided Index Attrition Rate

Start

Land Combat Sub-Model

Yes

End

No

Combat Ended?


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Battle Laboratories

CPX simulations for training, C2 evaluation,

event/mission synchronization

Got idea from U.S. At least six battle labs have been stood up

Other uses

Logistics training, LOGEX

Camouflage, concealment and deception

technology, techniques


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Influence of Wang Shouyun

Protg of Qian Xuesen

Wrote Modern War Game in 1982

Leader of Chinese delegation, Sino-U.S. Seminar on Methodologies inDefense Systems Analysis, 1987-88

Secretary general of COSTIND, 1997 Died in a mysterious accident in Dec.

1997


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Influence of T. N. Dupuy

Numbers, Predictions and Warpublished in1977 and read in PLA OR circles

Lecture tours to China from 1987-1990 + Understanding War, 1987

Sino-American seminars

Mentioned in dispatches

Well known to Wang Shouyun, COSTIND

QJMA license to CDSTIC, 1988

Multi-front model development, 1989-90


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Comprehensive National Power

Chinese derived methodology

Complex, many elements and indices

AMS and CASS versions Helps to show

Status hierarchy in world politics

Power potential of rivals and partners

Who will best exploit RMA

Which side will win a war

Also a rhetorical, political tool

See Michael Pillsburys China Debates the Future Security Environment


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Acquisition Process

Handout: Comparison of PRC and U.S.

acquisition stages/milestones

Comments on other procurementactivities

Planning for visitors

Acquiring information abroad CDSTIC and NTIS


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Institutionalizing Transformation

State-level and PLA think tanks CDSTIC, AMS, NDU

Academic research centers CAPS

Semi-private think tanks Shanghai RimPac Center for Strategic and

International Studies Have undergone major changes since late

1990s


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Vignettes

Air defense system RDT&E

New, stovepipe research centers

CAPS direct contract with PLA

Radar displays

Decision making is collective; a sharedresponsibility; trial balloons often used


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Q&A

Chuck Hawkins

410-643-8807

[email protected]

Documents

02 18 05 Hawkins Thursdays Child