0_2011_CVv160S2522011054

tcowoMccwKyfcwijrwv*

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Sd 252, Thang Mfldi nam 2011

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c m TIEU CONG VA T A N G TRI/0NG KXHH TE d VlflT NAM KIEM DjNH NHAN QUA TRONG MO HINH DA BIEN

PGS.TS. Sir OJNH THANH*

Hai miiai ndm qua, quy md chi tUu cdng cda VN t&ng rdt nhanh, td 14,2% GDP ndm 1991 tin 30,2% ndm 2010 (cao gdp hai ldn). Bin cgnh db, ki tU khi VN ndilgi quan hi v&i cgng ddng cdc nhd tdi trp qudc ti, dbng chdy ODA dd gdp phdn bd sung ddng ki ngudn tdi trp cho nhu cdu chi tiiu cdng cda Chinh phd. Kinh ti VN tdng tni&ng binh qudn 7,3%. C&u hdi dijrt ra la liû syi gia t&ng quy mS chi tiiu cbng cd gbp phdn thdc ddy tdng tni&ng kinh ti hay khdng? Hay ngiipc lgi, tdng tni&ng kinh ti ldm gia tdng quy md chi tiiu cdng ? Bdi viit ndy tdp trung nghiin ctiu quan hi nh&n qud giOa chi tiiu cbng v&i tdng tni&ng kinh ti. Mb hinh nghiin cdu diipc thiit ki tii hdm sdn xudt tdng qu&t, trong dd chi tiiu cbng diipc tdch ra thanh hai yiu td, gSm chi td ngudn thu ngan sdch nhd rui&c (NSNN) vd chi td vdn ODA viri mgc dich xem xet tinh hifu qua cda vi^c sd dgng cdc ngudn lyd: tdi chinh cdng; ddng th&i dd mis thidfng mgi, ddu tii tii nh&n vd lao ddng ddpc xem xet nhii la cac biin kiim sodt trong md hinh nghiin cdu. V&i dd liû trong gicd dogn 1990-2010, thong qua phiiOng phdp kiem dinh nh&n qud Granger trong md hinh VAR da hiin, cdng trinh phat hiin mb hinh nghien c&u cd y nghia; chi tiiu cbng v&i hcd cdu phdn cd quan hif nhan qua v&i tdng tni&ng kinh ti, nhiing khdng cd phiiu ngiipc IgL Mgt phat hifn rdt ddng quan tdm trong kit qud nghiin c&u Id chi tieu cbng khong cd quan hf v&i ddu tii tii nh&n. Trin cd s& db, cong trinh di xuat mgt vdi khuyin nghf nhdm hoan thifn chinh sdch chi tieu cbng cua VN.

1. Vai trd cda Chfnh phd dflU vdl Ung triiftng Kiskanen (1971) cho ring ddi ngu cdng chuib ^k de nshMn ctfki tririttc dSy *^^^ ^ " ^^ ^^^ ^^ khuynh hufimg tdi da h6a

ngin sich dl tdi da hda lpi ich ridng cua hp. H& Trong nin kinh td, cic hoat d^ng ciJa chinh qud Id hing hda cdng cung ci'p khdng dip Oftig

phii tic d?>ng ddn ting sin Iflpng thdng qua sfl nhu ciu tol flU ciia xa hdi nhflng bd miy khu vOc ti/ong tic vdi khu vflc Us nhin. Phdt tiiln co sd cdng 1^ cd kht^ynh hfldng pWnh to. Ke tfl sau ha ting, loai bd hay dilu tidt cic ngoai tic se tao cu^c chidn tranh thd gidi l in 2, nhilu ly thuyet dilu kidn cho cic hoat d?)ng Mnh td vi cii thi^n y^ cdng tiinh thfld nghi|m t^p taimg nghi&n cflu sfl phdn bl nguIn lflc. Hodc cic khoin thanh yl quy md chi tiiu chinh phii d cic nin Mnh te' toin chuyin giao cung giflp duy tri sfl hdi hba ciia cung nhfl hiû flhg CCB nd ddn tdng trfldng kinh xd hdi, cung nhfl ldm gia tdng hiû suit lao d?ing. td dii han. NMn chung, cic chinh sdch Mnh td vi md cd vai inh' ludt Wagner vl chi tilu cdng Id m6t trd nhit dinh ti-ong vide thuc diy tdng trfldng trong nhOhg nghin cflu sdm nhit da nhin manh Mnh td, song cung bi gidi han bdi Ad nhflng bdp tdng taiJdng Mnh td nhfl l i ydu td co ban quy^ t mdo dfloc gdy bdi Sfl can thidp ciia chinh phii. Gia dinh tdng tat/dng khu vflt cdng. Mdt vdi nghian tdng chi tidu cdng cd thg gdy ra mit cdn bing cflu theo tai/dng phii niy da phdt Win mdi quan Mnh td; lam phdt vd quy md no cdng gia tdng; h i dflong c6 ^ nghia gifla tdng taofdng khu vOt lin i t diu tiJkhu vflc ti/nhdn. Lf thuydt cua cdng vi tdng trfldng Mnh td khdng cW & cic nin

* TnJdng D^ hpc Kinh ti TP.HCM

^ A NGHIEN cdu & TRAO D6|

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Sd 252, Thdng Mfldi ndm 2011

Mnh td phdt trien md cbn d cdc nen Mnh td dang t6ng chi tidu chinh phu, diu tfl tfl nhan, xudt-phdt trien, nhflng mdt sd khde lai phdt hidn mdi nhdp khiu. Bing vide sijf dimg dfl lidu ciia 10 nfldc qudn hd am (Loizides, 2004). Ndi khde di, Mnh td trong khdl OECD, Ghali dd phdt hipn quy md chi VI md, ddc biet tfl duy trfldng phdi Keynes dd dfl& tidu cdng cd quan hd nhdn qua Granger vdi tdng ra dilm nhin khde. Trfldng phdi ndy hfldng ddn trfldng Mnh td trong cdc nfldc thudc miu nghidn tra ldi cdu hdi: Chinh phu cd vai trb ^ ddi vdi cflu. tang trfldng Mnh td? Nhiiu cdng trinh thflc Tdm lai, hiû flng chi tidu cdng ldn tdng nghidm tidn hdnh nghidn cflu tic ddng chi tidu trfldng Mnh td vin cdn Id vin di tranh ludn. cdng den tdng trfldng nhflng da phdt hidn ra Minh chflng thflc nghidm lien quan hiû flng chi nhiiu kdt qua khic nhau (Loizides, 2004). tidu chinh phu ldn tang trfldng Mnh td rd rdng Id

Trong hon ba thdp ky trd lai ddy, n6i ldn h6n hpp. Cdc kdt qui thflc nghidm phu thu^c nhiiu nghidn cflU thifc nghidm vl mdl quan h^ nhiiu vdo ky thudt chi tidt ciia md hinh thflc gifla chi tidu cdng vd GDP (Fischer, 1991; nghidm. Ching ban, mdi quan h$ gifla chi tidu Easterly & Rebelo, 1993; Girer & Tullock, 1989; cdng vd tdng trfldng Id dm khi chi tidu cdng dflpc Kormandi &Meguire, 1985). Ly do co bin khidn diin t i theo ty 1$ % GDP vd Id dflong khi diin t i cho nhiiu nha nghidn cflU chuydn tdm vdo chu di theo thay d3i ty 1 % hdng ndm (Constantinos, ndy Id vi cd nhflng khd khdn nhit dinh trong 2009).

2. Hid hlnh nghlftn cihi viec giii thich cdc mdi quan h$ vi md gifla cdc biin do chung cd khu^nih hfldng che lap ci vi chiiu hfldng lin bin chit cua mdi quan he nhan Trdn cO sd kd thfla nghidn cflu ciia qui. Trong cac md hinh flde IflOi^ diu cd nhflng Constantinos Alexiou (2009), Mesghena Yasin sai Idch nhit dinh. Udc Ifldng quan he nhdn qui (2003) vd mdt sd nghidn cflu khac (Ghah, 1998), theo trfldng phii Wagner cho ring chi tieu cdng cdng trinh ndy sfl dung hdm sin xuit t6ng qudt cd vai trd bi ddng; cbn ndu theo trfldng phdi tan co dien ldm co sd dl xay dflng md hinJi thflc Keynes thi dbi hdi phai cd bidn sd chinh sdch nghiem mdl quan hd gifla chi tidu cdng vd tdng quan trpng. Rd rang, cin phai nhan biet thiu ddo trfldng Mnh td trong md hinh da bidn. Ndu bd ban chit sfl that mdi quan hd nhan qui gifla chi qua yeu td ky thudt (A) thi ham sin xuat ting tieu chinh phu va tang trfldng Mnh td dl xac quit dflpc vidt lai dfldi dang don giin: dinh dilm manh cua mdi quan he difcfc flde IflOng, Y = f[K, L) (1) tfl dd dfla ra nhflng ham y quan trpng cho chinh Trong dd, Y Id mflc san Iflpng, K Id diu tfl tfl sdch vT md. Singh va Sahni (1984) sfl dvmg nhan vd L Id lflc Iflpng lao ddng. Khi cd sfl can phflong phap Granger dl Mim tra quan he nhan thidp cua chinh phu vdo nin Mnh tl, theo Feder qui gifla chi tieu cdng vd GDP trong md hinh hai (1982), Ram (1986) vd Grossman (1988), cd the bidn. Kdt qua thflc nghidm cua hp vdi dfl U$u cua dfla eW tidu cdng vdo hdm sin xuit tong qudt. An Dp cho thiy mdi quan hd nhdn qui gifla chi Chi tidu cdng bao gim chi thfldng xuydn vd ehi tidu cdng vd thu nhap qudc gia khdng nhfl kdt diu tfl, tic d^ng ddn tdng trfldng trong mb hinh ludn cua trfldng phdi Wagner lan trfldng phdi theo hai hfldng: mdt Id, gia tdng khdi Iflpng vdn Keynes. Bohl (1996) ip dvmg Mim dinh ding lidn diu tfl xd hî; hai Id gia tdng ting cau xd hdi. ket vd nhdn qua Granger trong khudn khi hai Nhfl vdy, phflong trinh (1) cd thi dflpc viet lai: bien. Kdt qua Mim dinh da iing hd dinh ludt Y = f(K,L, G) (2) Wagner ddi vdi trfldng hpp cua My vd Canada Trong diiu Men nin Mnh td md vd cd s\i huy trong sudt thdi ky hdu chien tianh thd gidi lin 2. ddng vdn nfldc ngodi dl gia tdng vdn diu tfl, khi Nghidn cflU cua Ghali (1998) sii dung ky thudt do, chi tidu cdng cd thi dfldc tdi trd tfl hai nguin: ding lien kdt Mem tra svf tflOng tic ndng ddng nguin thu ngan sdch trong nfldc, G (dfldi ddy gpi gifla quy md chinh phii vd tdng trfldng Mnh td tat Id chi NSNN) vd nguin vdn nfldc ngodi-phin trong hd thdng 5 bidn, gom tang trfldng GDP, dnh dbng vdn ODA, G^ (dfldi ddy gpi t i t Id ehi tfl

NGHltN cdu & TRAO D6|

tCQNQMi; fUMiwyi^Ni wvw

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Sd 252, Thing Mfldi nam 2011

nguon ODA). Dong thdi, dfla do Ifldng A^ md thflong mai (Z) vdo md hinh ldm bidn kilm sodt (Constantinos Alexiou (2009), Mcsghona Yasin (2003), khi dd hdm tong sin xuit dflOc bidn dli theo 5 bidn vT md nhfl sau:

y= f(K, L. GP, G", Z) (3) Phflong trinh (3) cho thiy dl phdn tich quan

hd chi tidu chinh phu vdi tdng trfldng cin xem xet nd trong sif tflOng tdc vdi cdc bidn Mim sodt khde (nhfl Id diu tfl tfl nhin, dO md thflong mai.) Liy dao hdm phflong trinh (3) theo Y (ngoai trfl lflc Ifldng lao dOng - L) ta cd pbfldng trinh (4) nhfl sau: dY IY = {dY I dK)dK IY + {dY I dL)dLI L + idYldG")dG''IY + (dYldG'')dG'lY-^ (4) idYld/)dZIY

Trong dd, dY I dK Id thfla sd bidn ciia vdn; dYldLlk thfla sd bien ciia lao ddng; tflOng tvf dYldG^'^vk dYldZ dflpc xdc dinh lin Iflpt Id thfla sd bien cda chi tieu cdng vd dp md thflOng mai. Dau cua tat ca dao hdm tflng phin dflpc ky vpng Id dfldng. Diiu ndy cd nghia Id dau tfl tfl nhdn, Iflt IflOng lao ddng, chi tidu cdng vd dp md thflong mai tat ca diu dflpc ky vpng cd hieu fltig dflong vd y nghia ddi vdi tang trfldng Mnh td. Dd md thflong mai cd hieu flng dflOng vd y nghia ddi vdi tang trfldng Mnh te bdi vi nin Mnh te md cd nhiiu CO hpi tiep can hon ddi vdi nguon vdn vd thi trfldng ben ngodi. Nin Mnh te cdng md thi dflpc ky vpng cd ty le tang trfldng cdng cao so vdi nen Mnh td ddng.

3. Khio s^t mm quan h$ chl tiiu c6ng vik Ung trO&ng kinh UT VN glal dofn 1990-2010

Trong vbng 20 nam trd lai day, Mnh td VN tang trfldng binh quan 7,3%, cao nhat Id 10% (ndm 1995) vd thap nhit 4,8% (nam 1999). Cd thi chia tdng trfldng Mnh td VN thdnh cdc giai doan: tdng trfldng cao (1991-1996), suy thodi (1997-2001), phvic hii (2002-2007) vd suy thodi (2007 ddn nay). Nhfl vdy, tfl ndm 1990 ddn nay, nin Mnh te dd trai qua cdc giai doan phdt trien khde nhau vd chinh sdch tdi khda cua chinh phii da cd nhQhg thay dli nhd't dinh nham ddi phd vdi chu ky Mnh te.

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Hlnh 1. Chl NSNN v^ tdng trfldng kinh td VN glal d09n 1990-2010

Ngudn: ABD, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, 2010

Hinh 1 cho thiy quy md chi NSNN vdn ddng gin nhfl theo chiiu hfldng tang trfldng GDP, nhit la giai doan 1998-2007. Vdo diu nhflng nam ciia thdp ky 90, quy md chi NSNN tang cao trong cac nam 1993-1996 (23-25%/GDP) vd tang taH&ng GDP dat d mflc 8-9,5%. Sau cudc khiing hoang tai chinh-tiin t^ nam 1997, nin Mnh td roi vao tinh trang suy thodi vdi mflt tdng trfldng dat 4,8% va chi NSNN cung chi o mflc 20,3% GDP Sau do, ehi ngan sdch lien tuc tang cao tfl 20% GDP ndm 1998 ldn hon 27,5% ndm 2007; dong thdi nen Mnh td ed diu hidu phiic hdi dan trong nhuDog nam 1999-2003 vd dat tang tnl&ng cao, Wnh qudn 7,5% d giai doan 2004-2007. Sif thay doi quy md chi ngan sach lien quan den thifc thi chinh sdch tdi khda phan chu ky eiia Chinh phii nhfl: diiu tiet giim mflc huy d^ng nguon thu thue thdng qua chflong trinh cai each thud bflde 2 va 3; ddc biet gia tdng chi dau tfl thdng qua cdc chflcmg trinh Mch ciu tap trung vdo cic miic tieu chien Ifloc flU tien Id cii thi^n co sd ha tang vi giam nghio. Tuy nhidn, sau cupc khung hoing tai chinh toin ciu ndm 2008, syl vdn dpng giOa hai bidn sd ndy diin ra khdng cung chiiu. Chi ngan sdch tdng len khd cao tfl 27,5% ldn 30% nam 2010, song tdng trfldng Mnh td chi dat binh qudn 5,8% (giai doan 2008-2010). Nhfl vdy, vdi thdc tiin ndy cung r i t khd dl khing dinh cM NSNN cd tic ddng ddn tdng trflomg Mnh td VN hay khdng.

Tfl khi md cifei Mnh td cho den nay, ODA trd thinh nguon vdn quan trpng dl cin ddi cho boi chi NSNN. Ludt NSNN nam 1996 va 2002 da quy dinh NSNN chi bdi chi cho nhu ciu dau tif.

ft^ NGHIEN cflu & TRAO odi

P H A T TRIEN KINH TE Sd 252, Thdng Mfldi ndm 2011

Ndm 1993, ddnh dau bflde ngodt quan trpng la VN bdt dau ndl lai mdl quan hd song phflong vd da phflong vdi cdng dong cdc nhd tdi trp qudc td khdi dau cho qud trinh thu hut vd sfl dung ODA. Theo Bd Ke hoach & Dau tfl, tfl ndm 1993 den 2010; Chinh phii VN vd cdc nhd tdi trp da ky cdc diiu flde qudc te, cvi t h i v i ODA vdi t ing sd vdn dat gin 50 ty USD, chiem 82,98% tong vdn ODA cam kdt trong thdi ky ndy, trong dd vdn ODA vay flU ddi chiem khoing 80%, vdn ODA khdng hodn lai chidm khoing 20%. Quy md vdn ODA cam kdt ngdy cdng tdng, song mflc d^ giii ngdn chi chidm 52% tong vd'n ODA cam kdt vd 62,65%-tong vdn ODA ky kdt trong thdi ky 1993-2010. Vdn ODA giii ngan dflOc edn ddi bdi chi NSNN vd tdi trp cho cdc linh vflt theo chie'n Iflpc flU tien cua Chinh phu nhfl: xda ddi giam nghdo, phdt trien ndng lifcfng, diu tfl cO sd ha tang, gido due vd y te (Ifinh 2). Tuy vdy, cdu hdi dat ra Id lieu cd ton tai mdi quan he gifla vdn ODA giii ngdn vd tdng trfldng Mnh td hay khdng? Nhin vdo Hinh 3 ta thay rat khd d l khang dinh mdl quan he gifla hai bie'n sd nay.

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tÔHOMC Ot\HljWj W WV||V

PHAT TRIEN KINHTE Sd 252, Thing Mfldi ndm 2011

CJDI^ = a^+ a^PI, + a^PGR, + a^DG, (6) + aÔDA, + a^TOP, + , Vdi md hinh trdn, bdi vidt tidn hdnh phin

tich mdl quan hd gifla cdc bidn bing 1^ thuyd't nhdn qui Granger vd md hinh vdc to tvr hii quy (VAR) cua GDP:

GDP, =a + PGDP,_, + Y^ SAG DIU + ^ (7)

4.2 Dd lifu nghiin cdu Cdc chuii thdi gian dflpc sfl dung trong nghidn

cflu ndy Id dfl lieu hdng ndm trong khoang thdi gian 1990-2010. Dfl lidu ciia cdc bidn dflpc thu thdp tfl in phim "Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010", gim ty 15 tang trfldng hdng ndm (GDP), ty Id chi NSNN/GDP (DG), ting Mm ngach xuit nhdp khiu/GDP (TOP). Tuy nhidn, do in pham ndy chi cdng bd dfl liû ciia VN ddn ndm 2009, cho nen tdc gia da thu thdp thdm dfl Ueu ndm 2010 dfla vdo cdc bdo cdo ciia Bd Kl hoach & Diu tfl vd Bd Tdi chinh. Dfl lidu vi ODA vd diu tfl tfl nhan (PI) lan IflOt dflpc thu thdp tfl Bd Ke hoach & Dau tfl vd Tong cue Thdng ke; dfl Ueu ve ty le lao ddng (L) dflpc thu thdp tren trang web cua ILO.

Bdng 1. Cdc bidn ciia mo hinh (1990 - 2010)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

8,2

8,5

6j3 5,3

6,7

27,5

29,4

29,2

29,7

29,2

22,54

29,21

27,45

25,40

25,94

135,30

151.30

151,70

126,10

152,55

1.3

1.3

1,3

1,2

1,2

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

GDP %

5,1

5,8

8,7

8.1

8,8

9,5

9,3

8,2

5,8

4.8

6,8

6,9

7,1

7,3

7,8

8,4

G (%/GDP)

21,9

14,2

19,8

25,2

25,0

23,8

23,1

22,6

20.3

21,2

22,6

24,4

24,2

26,4

26,2

27,3

PI (%/GDP)

8,92

10,89

14,52

16,84

18,74

18,35

16,36

17,47

14,43

13,56

13,99

14,24

15,94

18,37

21,12

21,63

TOP (%/GDP)

54,10

54,30

50,80

49,40

57,10

61,40

70,10

73,10

72.40

77,10

91.50

90,50

98,30

108,40

121.50

127.20

L

1,9

2,0

2,1

2,1

2,1

2,0

1,8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.5

1,4

1,4

4.3 Kiim dfnh tinh ddng Dl Mim dinh tinh dflng cua cdc bidn chuii

thdi gian, Mim dinh Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) truyin thdng vdi gii thuydt: Hf,:p = 0=> kdt ludn: cd nghidm don vi hodc chuii khdng dflng; / / | : p{0 => kdt ludn: chuii khdng c6 nghidm don vi hoac chudi dfltig. Tiiu chi quan trpng dd Id ndu thdng kd t - stat (dflpc ti'nh todn trong md hinh) ddi vdi p cd gii tri dm ldn hon 5% gii tri tra bing DF trong Mim dinh Augmented Dickey-FuUer thi gii thuydt Ho bi bdc bd hodc bidn cd tinh dflng hoac khdng ed nghidm don vi. Kdt qui Mim dinh dflipc trinh bdy trong Bing 2 cho thiy GDP cd tinh dflng d miJc y nghia 5%. Tit ci cic bidn edn lai khdng dflng. Sai phdn bdc m^t cua cdc chuii ndy cd tinh difiig hpp ly d mflc y nghia 1%, 5% va 10% (Bang 2). Ridng ddi vdi ODA do cd tinh dflng d mflc y nghia 10%, tdc gii sis dvmg Mim dinh PP (Phillips Person) tham khao dl tdng thdm tinh chinh xac. Kdt qui Id chuii ODA dimg d sai phan bic 1 theo tidu chi PP d mflt 1%. Trdn co sd kdt qua Mim dinh tinh dflng, ngoai trfl chuii GDP, sai phdn bdc 1 ciia cdc chuii cbn lai dflipc siJr dvmg trong mo hinh dl Mim dinh mdl quan he gifla chi tieu cdng vd tdng trfldng Mnh td.

Sau khi Mim tra tinh diing dl loai trfl hii quy gii mao (hi$n tiipng da cOng tuydn) cua cic chuoi thdi gian, bflde tidp theo l i Mim dinh dp tre cua md hinh. Sau khi sis dvmg cae tidu chi AIC (Akaike information criterion), SC (Schwarz information criterion), HQ (Hannan-Quinn information criterion), kdt qua cho thiy dd tre t6i flU dflpc \\Jla chpn cho md hinh VAR Id 0 (Bang 3). Nhfl vay, md hinh r i t thich hop dl thvfc hifen Mim dinh quan h^ nhin qua Granger gifla bi&i ndi sinh vi khdi cdc bidn ngoai sinh.

58 NGHIEN cdu & TRAO D 6 I

P H A T TRIEN KINH TE Sd 252, Thdng Mfldi nam 2011

Bdng 2. Ket qu i kiem djnh ADF Bien

GDP dDG dODA dPI dTOP dL

Do tri 1 4 1 0 1 0

t-stat ddi vdl p -3,3** -3 ,0"

-2,8*"* -3,5* -4,3* -3,4*

Ghi ch i i : " cd y nghTa 1%; ** cd y nghTa 5% v^ *** c6 y nghTa 10%

Lag 0 1

Bing 3. Tiu chf i(/a chpn dO t r i LogL

-172,2626 -140,3433

LR NA*

40,31915

FPE 5,684880* 10,85751

AIC 18,76449* 19,19403

SC 19,06273* 21,28174

HQ 18,81496* 19,54736

4.4 Ket qud kiim dfnh vd kit lugn Muc dich chinh cua cdng trinh ndy Id nhdm

Mem tra quan he gifla chi tidu cdng vd tang trfldng Mnh te. Dfla tren md hinh dflpc thie't lap, nghien cflu cd dua vdo cac bie'n Mim sodt nhim hi trp them tinh chat che ciia md hinh. Kdt qui Mim dinh Granger gifla bidn npi sinh vd tap hpp cdc bien ngoai sinh cua md hinh dflpc tdm t i t tiong Bing 4. Ke't qua thvfc nghiem minh chflng md hinh bien npi sinh (GDP) vd khdi cdc bien ngoai sinh (DG, ODA, PI, TOP, L) cd gia tri 16,35 vd y nghia 1%. Diiu ndy cho thiy md hinh nghien cflU dflpc xay dflng Id ddng tin cdy. Trong md hinh, chi NSNN (DG) cd hidu flng tich cflt de'n tdng trflotog Mnh td d mflc y nghia 1%. Ke't qui ndy phu hpp vdi nghien cflu eua Ashauer (1990), Ram (1986), Singh vd Sahni (1984). Hdm y ly thuydt tfl kdt qui nghiin cflU n iy nghiing vi ung hd quan dilm cua trfldng phai Keynes hon Id dinh ludt Wagner, vdi vide nhd'n manh vai trd cua chinh phu vd tdc ddng cua tdi khda ddn tdng trfldng Mnh td. Nghien cflU khdng phdt hidn mdl quan he nhdn qui gifla chi NSNN vd diu tfl tfl nhdn. Ddng chay ODA vdi ham y b l sung nguin tdi tro chi tieu cdng cd hidu iing manh ldn tang trfldng Mnh td VN d mflc y nghia 1%. Khde vdi nhiiu nghien ciiU cho rang ODA khdng cd y nghia vi mat thdng ke ddi vdi tang trfldng d cic n in Mnh td kem phi t t r i ln (Mesghena Yasin, 2003). Mdt ph i t hien kha thu vi trong md hinh

Id ODA cd hidu flng ldn PI vdi mflc y nghia 10%. Dieu ndy eiing cd thdm nhdn dinh vi mdl quan hd nhdn qud gifla ODA vd tdng trfldng. TOP vd PI cd tdc ddng ddn tdng trfldng vdi mflc y nghia 5%. Phdt hidn ndy hdm y, ehinh sdch phdt trien Mnh td tfl nhdn vd thuc diy tuf do hda thflOng mai cd ddng gdp nhd't dinh den tdng trfldng Mnh te d VN trong 20 nfim qua. Hidu flng ciia life Iflpng lao d^ng ldn tdng trfldng vdi mflc y nghia 10%, khd ye'u so vdi bie'n cbn lai.

Bdng 4. Nhdn qui Granger trong mo hinh VAR gifla mpt bidn nOi sinh vd khdi cdc bidn ngo^i sinh

ruiBin GDP

dDG

dODA

dPI

dL

dTOP

To&n the

GDP

/ 11,4*

7,91*

6,35**

5,24*"

7,72**

19,35*

dDG

3,53

/ 2,93

1,83

1,39

2,34

15,79

dODA

1,21

15*

/ 0,69

0,20

0,77

25,19

dL

1,25

0,33

0,35

0,28

/ 0,60

5,50

dPI

0,22

3,79

4,43***

/ 0,85

2,49

9,60

dTOP

0,350

2,570

1,650

0,012

1,014

1

7,400

Ghi chu: * cd y nghTa 1%, ** co y nghTa 5%, va *** co y nghTa 10%

5. M$t v i^ g^ y hoin thi$n chfnh sach chi tiiu cdng

Trong vdng 20 ndm qua, chi NSNN ed ddng gdp den tang trfldng Mnh td VN. Trong md hinh, quan he nhdn qua Granger gifla chi NSNN vd diu tfl tfl nhdn khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke. Diiu ndy hdm y, chi NSNN chua tao ra dflpc lflc day ddi vdi dau tfl tfl nhdn trong khi diu tfl tfl nhdn tde ddng ddn tdng trfldng vdi y nghia thd'ng ke thd'p. Nhfl vdy, cd the ndi md hinh tdng trfldng Mnh td ciia VN chu ydu diTa vdo NSNN, vd md hinh ndy da bdc Id edc khoing trdng cin phai xfl ly trong giai doan tdi:

(1) Cdn xd ly hdi hda chi tieu cdng vd tdng tnidng:

Xdc Idp tdm nhin ud triit ly cila chi NSNN: Thdi gian qua, quy md chi NSNN tang nhanh, trong dd, chi dau tfl tdng tfl 5% nam 1990 ldn 9% GDP nam 2008, chidm khoang 40% ting chi NSNN. CM diu tfl chiem ty trpng ldn trong ngin

NGHIEN cdu & TRAO OOI 59

P H A T T R I E N KINH TE Sd 252, Thdng MUdi ndm 2011

sdch td't ydu dan ddn ban chd ehi tidu cho dich vy ndng Ivfc vd trinh di quin 1^^ ciia cdn bd di cdng, suf nghiep vdn hda, gido due, y td; ddy Id pbfldng. Tuy nhidn, h^ thd'ng co sd ha t ing nhil mdt vd'n di ldn trong co cd'u thu, chi NSNN cin Id cdc triic giao thdng vin chfla ddp iing ydu cii dflpc phdn tach m^t cdch nghidm tuc. Nhiiu khdo cho phdt triln kinh td ciia dd't nfldc c i vi chil sdt cho thd'y vd'n diu tfl ciia ngdn sdch b l tri ddn Ifldng vd sd Ifldng; vi|c quan ly, duy tu, bao dfldng trai, chong chdo, thie'u ding bd, chd't IflOng thd'p cdc cdng trinh co sd ha t ing sau diu tfl hidn chfla (Vu, 2011). Nguyen nhdn sau xa bi t nguin tfl ddp flng dfldc ydu ciu. Kdt qui thu hut diu tfl vdc nhdn thflc sai lam vc chflc nang ciia Nhd nfldc. linh vife kdt cd'u ha t ing theo hinh thflc BOT va Trong nen Mnh te thi trfldng, Nhd nfldc ldm chflc BT vin cdn ban chd. Hiu hdt cic dd dn didn nang quan tri qudc gia chfl khdng phai ldm Mnh BOT cho dd'n nay diu dp dung hinh thflc ehi dinh doanh tnrc tidp. Sif tdi cd'u tnic dau tfl ciia ngdn nhd diu tfl vd hi^n vin cdn nhiiu vfldng mic sach phdi ddt trdn nin t ing thay doi dinh hfldng trong vide xfl ly cic diiu Mdn tham chidu theo muc tieu chflc ndng cua Nhd nfldc. Thay dli chi quy chuin chung cua qudc td. Li trd'ng ndy phai diu tfl ciia NSNN theo hfldng tdp trung UU tidn dupe xfl ly Min quydt trong thdi gian tdi dl thuc diu tfl ket cd'u ha ting, phdt triln th i chl vd diy vd thu hut svf tham gia ciia khu vi/c tfl nhdn. phdt trien nang Ivfc. Can khuyd'n khich phdt triln Hodn thi^n chinh sdch ph&n cdp ddu tu cdng manh me khu vvfc tfl nhdn dl diiu chinh eO cd'u theo hiidng phdt triin bin udng: Phan cap quan vd cat giim chi dau tfl eua NSNN. Svf rut vd'n ra ly diu tfl cdng dang dien ra theo xu hfldng ehung khdi nhflng linh vflc khdng cin thidt se giup Id phdn cap manh, tang thvfc quyin vd tdng svf Chinh phii cd dieu Men tap trung hoach dinh chu ddng eiia dia pbfldng trong huy dpng nguini nhflng van di vi md, diu tfl vdo cdc co sd ha t ing Ivfc, phdn bl , suf dimg vdn ngdn sach cho cdc boat trpng diem, hinh thdnh cO ca'u dau tfl cd lpi eho ddng dau tfl cdng theo nguyen t ic hieu qua, tap tang trfldng vd nang cao nang lflc canh tranh. trung vdo cdc linh vvfc md tfl nhdn khdng la

Cdi thi^n chinh sdch thu hut von ddu tU ca dflpc bode ldm khdng cd hidu qua. Kdt qui la sd hg tdng: Thdi gian qua, phdn cap quin ly diu phdt huy manh me tinh nang ddng, sdng tao ct tfl tfl nguon vd'n ngdn sdch theo xu hfldng chung tflng dia phflOng trong quin ly vdn dau tif Id phdn cip manh, tdng thvfc quyin vd tang svf nguin ngdn sdch; tang quyin tif chii, tvf chit chu ddng ciia dia phflong theo nguydn tie hi^u trdch nhiem ciia chinh quyin dia phuong trot qua, tdp trung vdo cdc linh vvfc md tU nhdn quin ly vd'n diu tfl tren dia bin; v i ^ phan bo khdng ldm dflpc hodc ldm khdng cd hiiu qui. Ddi giao kd hoach vdn diu tfl sdt vdi ydu ciu va dil vdi nguin vdn diu tfl co sd ha tang ngodi nguin Mdn thvfc td t r in tflng dia bin; qua dd hidu qi vd'n ngdn sdch, Chinh phii thue diy cdc dvf dn diu tfl dfldc ndng cao, thu hut dflOc thim nWl dau tfl theo phflong thflc BOT, BTO vd BT, ddc nguin vd'n phvic vu cho diu tfl. Tuy nhien, ehii biet Id cdc dvf dn sfl diing vd'n diu tfl eho cdc dvf sdch phan cap xud't hi^n nhflng ban che, dd lal an ket ca'u ha t ing quan trpng, thie't yd'u. Ke't qui hd tiid'ng phdn quyin quydt dinh diu tfl chfla hppl Id, diu tfl tdng manh dd gdp phin cii thien hi ly, chinh quyin trung flong khdng diiu phdi dfldc thdng CO sd ha tang vd qua dd tdng ndng Ivfc san co cd'u diu tfl d cic dia phflong; chat Iflpng quy xud't xa hdi; phdt huy manh me tinh tvf ehii, ndng hoach thd'p, d in di'n ddn trai, ty le cdng tiinh dd ddng, sdng tao ciia tflng dia phflong trong quan ly dang cao; quan ly thvfc hi in diu tfl kem, gdy ldng vd'n dau tfl tfl ngdn sdch; vide phdn bo vd giao kd phi, tham nhiing. De khic phvic tinh ti-ang nay hoach vd'n diu tfl sdt vdi yeu ciu vd diiu Men cin phai tdng cfldng nang Ivfc cic co quan quan ly thvfc td tren tflng dia bdn; thue diy viic ndng cao nhd nfldc tai dia phflong trong viec quan ly diu

60 NGHIEN Cdu & TRAO DOI

PHAT TRIEN KINH TE kJ Sd 252, Thang Mfldi nam 2011

1990

tfl; xdy dilhg co che quan ly chat che viec huy UU ddi ciia nguon vdn se giam do VN da thodt ra ddng vd si^ f dvmg vd'n dau tfl cdng, cd sif gidm sdt khdi ngfldng nfldc nghdo. Diiu ndy hdm y, VN cua cdng ding, cua cdc t l chflc khoa hpc cd cin phii thay dli chidn Iflpc thu hut vd sif dung chuyen mdn sdu. nguon vd'n ndy. Cin uu tidn sfl dung ODA, nhd't

(2) Tdng cudng tdc dd gidi ngdn, ndng cao Id ODA vd'n vay kdm UU ddi cho cdc chflong trinh, hiiu qud sit dung ngudn ODA phuc vu phdt triin dif dn cd khd ndng hodn vdn cao, tao dflpc nguin hen vOng thu. Dong thdi, cin md rdng thdnh phan dflpc

Md hinh thifc nghiim da minh chflng ODA cd tidp cdn vd sfl dung nguin vdn ODA, kl ca khu quan he nhdn qua vdi PI vd GDP. Kdt qud cho vifc tfl nhdn trdn co sd quan hi ddi tdc cdng-tfl thd'y mac du chidm ty trpng khdng ldn, khoing 3- kdt hpp trong diu tfl phdt tiiln; giam bdt cdc 4% trong GDP ciia VN, song ODA Id nguon vd'n khdu trung gian trong qudn \

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